🪖 This Week in Spain: Defense Budget Drama

Madrid | Issue #93

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🌰 This Week in a Nutshell: Now that Europe has come to terms with the Trump world order, it’s time to arm up. However, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez will not have it easy here, as progressive and leftist parties are totally against increasing defense spending.

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Make NATO Great Again

PM Sánchez says Spain is ready to boost defense spending. His lefty partners? Not so much

It’s clear that Europe is facing one of its biggest security dilemmas in decades. With Trump threatening to withdraw U.S. military protection, European leaders have rallied around a historic €800 billion defense investment plan, hoping to reduce their dependence on the U.S.

• Spain, you gotta pay. NATO is also pushing its members to increase military spending to deter Russia, and this means that Spain, the organization’s lowest spender (dedicating just 1.28% of GDP to defense in 2024) is now feeling the pressure to step up and move toward the 2% target it agreed to back in, oh, 2014.

Crunch time. After weeks of reaffirming long-term plans to get to 2%…by 2029, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez is now accepting this may need to be done sooner, but it won’t be easy. The issue? Spain’s extremely divided political reality.

• Herding 🐈‍⬛. Not only does Sánchez have to convince center-right PP to support him (PP looks kindly on military spending, hates Sánchez), he also needs to convince his anti-war, leftist partners (who look kindly on him, and hate military spending).

• So…meetings. Last week, the PM said he would hold one-on-one meetings with the leaders of all parliamentary groups except for far-right Vox, because Sánchez says their position “is very clear” (i.e. they are siding with Trump).

• How long? This announcement was significant as Sánchez and PP boss Alberto Núñez Feijóo haven’t met one-on-one for 15 months because their love explodes into fire if they touch they pretty much hate each other.

Weirdly, it’ll be hardest with friends. Both PSOE and PP agree on the need to increase defense spending so they are expected to (eventually) agree. The hardest part?Convincing the leftist parties.

The Lefties. The leftish Sumar coalition inside Sánchez’s government (remember them?) and the other lefties that support it from the outside (ERC and Podemos) have made it clear they are all against more defense spending because war is bad and stuff and money spent on defense can’t be spent on other things.

• Anti-spend logic. Sumar boss-lady Yolanda Díaz said this week that "nothing is fixed by increasing the military budget" and that the goal shouldn’t be spending more but coordinating better because the EU made a mistake by “outsourcing” its defense to the U.S. (someone might mention that the U.S. spends a heck of a lot on defense, and without that help, Europe might need to spend more of its own?)

• PSOE pushback. Socialist spokesperson Patxi López pushed back on “populist” arguments of Sumar and others to the left, saying, “It's not about guns or butter. It's about security and social policies." And Sánchez told Díaz there would be no social cuts made to spend on defense. (One thing we will not hear from the government? Any talk about hard choices or belt-tightening).

• But it might not matter. Sumar has objected to more military spending over 20 times in cabinet meetings but has always gone along with the increases afterwards. “The complaints of the vice president of Sumar have had no consequences,” El Español writes (not at all poking fun, of course).

Meeting time. Starting this morning, Sánchez is meeting with all major party leaders to discuss Spain’s role in Europe’s rearmament. They include PP leader Núñez Feijóo, followed by representatives from ERC, Junts, Bildu, PNV, Podemos, BNG, Coalición Canaria, and UPN.

Why today’s newsletter is late. After his meeting ended this afternoon, Feijóo held a press conference and said that while he agrees that Europe needs to rearm, he thought “engaging in dialogue” with PSOE would be very difficult.

• No plan. He said Sánchez didn’t “present him with a plan” or “ask for help”. He also said that “a 30-minute meeting and a coffee” to discuss this “wasn’t serious”, especially considering that the PP is the most-voted political party in Spain. He also warned Sánchez may try to bypass Parliament to achieve this, which makes the possibility of an agreement “impossible”.

Prime Minister Sánchez is expected to speak this afternoon and we plan to update our website with what he says.

**Update: Prime Minister Sánchez offered a press conference this afternoon. Here are five key takeaways from what he said."**

1. No cuts. Defense spending won’t impact social policies. “We will not cut a single euro cent from social policy to meet our commitment to Europe in security and defense.”

2. Not just a regional conflict – He emphasized that the war in Ukraine is about more than just a regional dispute; it affects the multilateral order and international rules: “Peace in Ukraine and prosperity in Europe are two sides of the same coin.”

3. Support for Ukraine’s security – Spain and Europe must continue supporting Ukraine to ensure it reaches negotiations from a position of strength and to provide security guarantees that prevent future Russian aggression.

4. Parliamentary debate on defense spending. Despite what Núñez Feijóo said this morning, Sánchez responded to criticism and stated that any decision requiring parliamentary approval will go through Parliament.

5. New security threats beyond Ukraine – He highlighted that Spain does not face a conventional military threat but rather hybrid threats like cyberattacks and that Europe must strengthen its security and defense capabilities.

• No Trump bump. Speaking of Vox (sorta), according to an El Mundo poll, the party seems to have been hurt by their explicit support for (and endorsement by) Donald Trump and has dropped 0.2% to 12.9% of the vote. Sad face.

More news below. 👇👇

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💬 Five things to discuss at dinner parties this week

1. ☹️ The murder of a social worker in Badajoz

Spain was shaken Sunday night by the brutal murder of 35-year-old social worker Belén Cortés—allegedly at the hands of the very teenagers she was assigned to help. She was beaten and strangled with a belt inside a state-run apartment for at-risk minors in Badajoz (Extremadura).

• The call. A boy who lived in the house called his social worker, who then alerted police. Officers arrived to find Belén dead.

• On the run. The two boys who are thought to have killed Belén, 14 and 15 years old, had already fled in Belén’s grey Renault Megane, driven by a 17-year-old girl who was another resident of the same house but not implicated in the murder.

• Crash and capture. The three crashed the car on the A5 highway, then hitchhiked to Mérida. The girl was arrested at 3 a.m.; the two boys four hours later.

None of this explains how this came to pass. But there were plenty of signs that the two main suspects were trouble—and the system failed repeatedly.

• Long rap sheet. The 14-year-old (D.G.P.) attacked his father four times and broke his nose. The 15-year-old (J.J.G.) was a habitual car thief who apparently once committed 37 crimes in a single weekend.

• In & out of supervised care. Both boys had long histories of living in and escaping juvenile facilities. The older one had threatened a teacher in Villafranca de los Barros (for giving his a zero on an exam) and fought a fellow handball player in Mérida.

• Troubled families. The 14-year-old’s parents frequently reported his disappearances to police. The older boy’s parents, who were divorced and had been convicted of domestic violence, did not, according to El Mundo.

• Carnaval escape. On March 1, the two escaped during a supervised outing, and went to celebrate Carnaval in Mérida, where one had a girlfriend, and were eventually located in Villafranca de los Barros, where they stayed with the 15-year-old’s mother.

• No intervention. The two were captured after they robbed a coffee shop in Villafranca; the family of the 14-year-old then reported that the older kid’s mother was supplying them with drugs. But because a judge wasn’t available over the weekend, instead of police supervision, they were sent back to the home where they lived in “semi-liberty”—and where Belén would be killed days later.

Still, why? The police have yet to publish a motive, but it’s clear the two had an opportunity. Extremadura outsources juvenile care apartments to private services, which assign caregivers to oversee the children. Belén, one of five assigned to the house, was there alone (as was usual). She had entered the home not long before she was murdered, for her 8 p.m. to 8 a.m. shift, which she had continued to do despite reporting that she had already been threatened.

• Social workers want change. Social workers are now demanding safety measures such as cameras in the residences as well as security guards or a second social worker per shift. “The kids are increasingly aggressive,” said Sheila Gómez, Belén’s colleague and friend. “This could have happened to any of us.”

Suspect family speaks.. The family of the 14-year-old expressed their “deepest condolences" and called for the justice system to "act decisively."

2. 🏖️ ‘Tourist, Go Home!’ but with a conservative twist!

We Bubble editors both separately just visited Mallorca and we can confirm:

• The Balearic Islands are absurdly gorgeous

• There are a LOT of tourists

Well, it seems like the islands’ government has decided it’s actually too many tourists and they’re trying to do something about it.

• The twist? This time it’s not a lefty or regionalist party slamming over-tourism—it’s the center-right PP. And you know when the business-friendly right is bashing tourism (50% of the regional economy), the problem must be huge.

So what’s happening? The government led by regional President Marga Prohens on Friday announced a series of proposed measures designed to raise money from tourists, push them to come off-season and crack down on new and illegal tourist rentals. Specifically:

• Sleeping’s gonna cost ya. The Sustainable Tourism Tax (Impuesto de Turismo Sostenible) or Ecotasa, which is basically a lodging tax, would be eliminated in January and February, while it would jump up to 200% in the high season, hitting €6 per person per night.

• Bringing a Car? Pay Up. A new tax (between €35 and €150, depending on emissions and stay length) would hit rental cars & visitors' vehicles.

• Tourist rental crackdown. The islands would ban new tourist rentals in multifamily buildings, and raise fines on illegal rentals to up to €500,000. That’s, like, a lot.

The backlash? Predictable. The Exceltur tourist lobby called the plans “improvisations” and asked for a “more balanced and fair” analysis (hmm, we’re guessing “over-tourism” would still top the list), while the car rental lobby called the new taxes “discriminatory.” The far-righties of Vox bashed the PP for “joining the left's anti-tourism discourse” while the left said the measures didn’t go far enough. Surprise!

• Our guess? Once the local PP gets down to negotiating these proposals, something will probably pass. Why?

Something has to happen. From Barcelona to the Canary Islands, locals are joining angry anti-tourism protests, largely because of Spain’s housing crisis (a.k.a. “No one under 40 can buy a home”). And in Palma (Mallorca), 20,000 came out last July, chanting, "Your luxury, our misery" and "It's not tourismophobia, it's numbers."

• But if you can get to the islands. Visit Sóller, and try the antique-y trains from Palma to Sóller and the beach (see video above). But maybe visit off-season. We did.

3. 🇩🇴 PP deletes AI-generated video after it starts a diplomatic conflict with the Dominican Republic

Here’s a six-pack diplomatic crisis we didn’t see coming.

Meant to be funny. The PP last week posted on social media an AI-generated video in which we could see several people involved in judicial scandals affecting the PSOE, such as Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez (sporting a very suspicious six-pack), his wife Begoña Gómez and former Transport Minister José Luis Ábalos, participating in a fictional show titled La Isla de las Corrupciones or “Corruption Island”.

• Hype piggyback. The goal was clearly to capitalize on the hype surrounding the hit reality show Temptation Island Spain (“Montoya, por favor!”), which is filmed in the Dominican Republic.

• But, but, but… The PP video featured a map and flag of the Caribbean country, suggesting that Corruption Island was set there.

• Maybe on purpose? Last year, the PP made multiple accusations about “mysterious” flights to the DR using the official government jet. Defense Minister Margarita Robles later explained they were mostly stopovers for refueling.

• 🍿 Watch it. You can watch the now-deleted video here.

Backfire. The move was probably inspired by the “Trump Gaza” post from a few weeks ago and hoped to draw the ire of the socialists. Except it backfired.

• DR angry. The video quickly triggered a diplomatic crisis with the DR, whose Foreign Ministry took to X to express its “rejection” to the “unacceptable” use of the country’s image to criticize Spain’s internal political issues.

• Of course he did. PM Sánchez condemned the video (see above), saying that he felt “deep shame” for it and personally apologized to the DR for the use of imagery that led to the country’s protest.

Delete button. Less than 24 hours later, the PP took the video down and apologized on X, saying that there was never “any intent to damage the image of the Dominican Republic, a country with a long tradition of friendship and close ties with Spain.”

• No, you! The following day, PP’s parliamentary spokesperson, Miguel Tellado, again “sincerely apologized” to the DR—although he added Sánchez “should also apologize” for allowing corruption within his own party.

La tableta gubernamental. In the end, we’re pretty sure the one thing you’ll remember the most about this is Sánchez’s six-pack.

4. 🕵️‍♂️The ‘Great Babia Mystery’—solved!