🤑 Is Spain's economy strong or not?

Madrid | Issue #126

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All about the Benjamins

📈 Spain is getting bigger in every possible way

The good numbers just keep coming. On Monday, it was Brussels’ turn to play fairy godmother, bumping Spain’s 2025 growth forecast up to 2.9% (from 2.6%) and 2026 to 2.3% (from 2.0%). That makes Spain, once again, the fastest-growing “big” economy in the EU. Meanwhile, unemployment, inflation, and public debt are all supposed to drift down through 2027.

• So… happy, happy, happy! Right?

Because we at The Bubble are all about public service (and also Belén Esteban), and because people can use numbers to lie (we’ve seen it!), we’re going to unpack the hype. What’s really driving Spain’s growth? And how much of it do you actually feel in your wallet…or your rent? We’ll also arm you with talking points to annoy your friends from France, Germany, and Italy at the next dinner. You’re welcome.

That growth thing. According to the European Commission, Spain is “killing it” (technical term) in 2025 for a simple reason: domestic demand is on fire. While the rest of Europe is stressing about the Orange Man’s tariffs, Spain is doing something very old-school: working, earning, spending, and investing more. (It doesn’t hurt that one of Spain’s biggest exports is tourism, and the 🍊 hasn’t figured out how to tariff Americans traveling abroad.) Here’s Brussels’ logic in three easy steps:

• Household spending is back. Real incomes are finally rising faster than prices, inflation is sliding toward 2%, and employment keeps growing — making private consumption (i.e., people buying shit) the main engine again.

• Investment is having a moment. Companies are pouring money into equipment and especially intangibles—software, data, R&D—helped by still-decent financing conditions and a fat pipeline of EU recovery funds. CaixaBank says investment in intangibles is 40% above 2019 levels.

• Migration is turbocharging the labor market. Inward migration is expanding the labor force and making it easier for firms to grow without suffering labor shortages. That’s why Spain can add jobs and still have high unemployment.

Bonus: You’re allowed to be insufferable about this. The euro area as a whole is forecast to grow 1.3% in 2025; Spain is at 2.9% and the other biggies? France: 0.7%. Germany: 0.2%. Italy: 0.4%. So if your friend in Paris complains about “l’Espagne”, feel free to lol. Or, as the French would say, mdr (“mort de rire”).

• But, but, but… Here’s the point when we get kinda aguafiestas (you know, a party pooper). Because macro data can glow while people’s daily lives sorta suck.

Population growth = more mouths, same pie (almost). Spain just hit a record 49.4 million residents, after adding roughly 475,000 people in the last year — almost all born abroad. Around 1 in 5 residents is now foreign-born, and the group is growing about 20 times faster than the Spanish-born population.

• Back-of-the-envelope calculation. If GDP grows 2.9% and the population grows about 1% (as it has in the last 12 months), then GDP per capita is rising closer to 1.9%. Still good, just not “economic miracle, let’s all buy a second flat in Chamberí” good.

• And more people means more competition. For housing, schools, and doctors. That may help explain why the macro charts say “boom” while your rent says “ouch”.

Unemployment. Better, but still Europe’s paro king. The good news: Brussels thinks Spain’s unemployment rate will fall to 10.4% in 2025 and finally drop below 10% in 2026–27—the best in over a decade. The bad news: The EU average is around 6%.

• What does that mean? Spain is creating lots of jobs, but it will still have the highest unemployment rate in the EU through 2027. Being “top of the class” in growth and paro is pretty on-brand, no?

Warning 🚨: The growth isn’t reaching everyone. Eurostat says 25.8% of people in Spain are at risk of poverty or social exclusion — one of the highest in the EU (behind Greece, Romania, and Bulgaria). And a new FOESSA–Cáritas report finds severe exclusion is 52% higher than before the 2008 crisis, with the housing crisis — especially brutal rents — now a leading cause. For many households, it’s not grocery prices that break them, it’s the landlord.

• So, yeah, the numbers look great, but the distribution is ugly. Real wages are still 5% below pre-pandemic levels on average, and a big chunk of the income growth has come via pensions, benefits, and property income, not salaries. That’s why so many feel the recovery is something that happens to other people.

Finally…“since 2019”. The real measure of success is how much economies have grown since the pre-pandemic world. Because if you fell a lot during COVID and then came back fast (like Spain), maybe it’s no better than if you fell less and are growing slow now? On that measure, however, Spain seems to be winning too: CaixaBank estimates it has grown a cumulative 10% since 2019, versus 6.4% for the euro area.

• The verdict. Yes, you can absolutely brag about Spain’s growth to your friends in Berlin, Milan, or Paris. Just maybe don’t do it in front of your neighbours who are spending half their salary on a 50m² flat.

More news below. 👇👇

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💬 Five things to discuss at dinner parties

1. 🚅 Madrid-Barcelona in less than two hours?

Suck it, planes! Transport Minister Óscar Puente dropped a major infrastructure bombshell on Monday: the Madrid–Barcelona high-speed corridor is preparing to jump from 300 km/h to 350 km/h, a move that would slash travel times to just two hours and place Spain in extremely rare company (only China currently runs commercial trains at 350 km/h).

• So what exactly is the proposal? A whole ecosystem upgrade.

First, boost the AVE to 350 km/h (217 mph). This requires new “aerotraviesas” (aerodynamic sleepers) that cut air resistance by 21% and allow a 12% boost in top speed without modifying the current track. Fancy!

• The Madrid–Barcelona stretch moves 15 million passengers per year, and the train already dominates the plane on this route (85% train vs 15% air), making it the ideal candidate.

Second, a brand-new direct line from Lleida to Barcelona (no Tarragona detour). This is the big structural change. A new 135–150 km route entering Barcelona from the north (La Sagrera) would bypass the increasingly saturated Mediterranean Corridor.

• The estimated cost is €3 billion only for the Catalan stretch, but who’s counting?

And third, tons of new stations! Puente announced…

• A new northern access to Madrid. Right now, everything squeezes through Atocha in central Madrid. Puente wants an additional entrance from the northeast via Chamartín station, with a dedicated AVE station at Terminal 4 of Barajas Airport (woohoo!).

• A new high-speed station in Parla. “Where?” you ask. Well, a small town south of Madrid. This would let certain trains avoid entering central Madrid altogether, improving flow between Andalucía and Catalonia.

• And last but not least, a high-speed station at Barcelona–El Prat Airport (woohoo again!)

Why is this such a big deal? Because Spain already has the largest high-speed rail network in Europe and the second biggest in the world after China.

• Right now, the MAD-BCN AVE trip takes 2.5 hours at best. Reducing it to 1 hour and 59 minutes is both a logistical and psychological milestone.

• Faster trips mean the same trains can make more journeys per day → more capacity without buying new fleets.

But, but, but… Don’t book your ultra-fast-AVE tickets yet. The viability study goes out this week. No timelines have been given, but the ministry itself estimates nothing will begin before 2030, after key works on Chamartín, Atocha, and the Madrid–Sevilla AVE are completed. And, honestly, that’ll be three governments from now. So this may be more fantasy than reality.

• Cue the PP. Madrid’s regional government (of the opposition PP) was quick to pour cold water on Puente’s announcement. Regional minister Miguel Ángel García Martín dismissed the plan as “another fantasy,” and criticized the minister for offering “no timeline and no budget.”

Well, there is that. Looks like we’ll just have to wait. ⌚

2.😔 The tragic death of Encarnita Polo

We understand if you’ve never heard about early 70s flamenco-pop icon Encarnita Polo, but trust us, she was, as people say here, historia de España. Unfortunately, last Friday, Polo became the center of one of the most unsettling stories of the year.

• The artist, known for being behind the immortal “Paco, Paco, Paco”, was apparently murdered while sleeping in a residence for the elderly in Ávila. It’s a crime as brutal as it is baffling — and has plunged the country into a mix of disbelief and sadness.

Who was Encarnita? If you grew up anywhere near Spanish radio, 1970s TV variety shows, or the nostalgia-filled universe of folclóricas, you know Encarnita Polo.

• Born in Sevilla, she became a trailblazer of the copla yeyé. That means she wore miniskirts, and had an attitude and a voice that blended tradition with a new pop spirit that was arriving — slowly — in the late Franco era.

• Paco, Paco, Paco became part of Spain’s collective soundtrack and later resurfaced as an early viral phenomenon thanks to YouTube (yes, even before TikTok).

• Polo was vibrant, charismatic, and surrounded by Spanish music legends like Rocío Dúrcal, Lola Flores, and Sara Montiel.

The crime. Early Friday morning, in the halls of the Decanos residence in Ávila, a 66-year-old man allegedly entered Encarnita’s room while she slept and strangled her. Caretakers rushed in after hearing noises, but she had already died.

• The alleged attacker had arrived at the residence less than 48 hours earlier and was in the psychiatric wing, reportedly adjusting to medication.

• Police sources say he may have been suffering from dementia and could have become “obsessed” with her. There is no known relationship between them.

• He is currently under police custody in the psychiatric unit of the Ávila Hospital, awaiting stabilization before giving a statement. Why he targeted her is still a mystery.

The quiet tragedy of her later years. Encarnita’s final chapter was already marked by hardship long before this horrible ending.

• Polo lost her longtime Madrid home after a 22-year legal battle and was scammed during the Bankia “preferentes” scandal, losing €70,000 (basically all her savings).

• She was forced to pawn her jewelry to get by (her career stalled, and TV networks began calling her only to ask her to appear for free).

• She battled breast cancer in 2021, and after decades in Madrid, she moved to Ávila to be closer to her daughter and to afford a quieter, cheaper life.

Farewell in silence. Her daughter, Raquel Waitzman, issued a single statement announcing her mother’s death and requesting total privacy. No cameras, no celebrity procession, no spectacle. Just a small, private funeral under Ávila’s rain.

• It’s a deeply Spanish tragedy. A woman adored in her time, forgotten too soon, and forced into precarity despite her cultural legacy.

3. 🏈 Yes, it’s called football, but you play it with your hands

The NFL came to Madrid on Sunday, and the whole thing felt like a mash-up between the Super Bowl (the vibe) and a game between two deeply mediocre 3-7 teams (the actual sport). But honestly? It didn’t matter. The league’s push to “internationalize” American football landed in Madrid with a bang.

• The Miami Dolphins beat the Washington Commanders 16-13 with a sudden-death overtime field goal. A thriller on paper, a bit of a slog on grass (and watch this to see how they installed the grass — amazing). But this was never really about football. It was about the atmosphere, the numbers, and yes — the gossip.

The atmosphere. The NFL didn’t just arrive — it colonized. The league planted a giant U.S. flag next to an equally giant Spanish one on the pitch where Mbappé usually slams in goals in Real Madrid’s Bernabéu stadium. Karina Pasian belted the U.S. anthem and the Infantería de Marina handled the Spanish one, like it was a Super Bowl pre-show.

• Outside the stadium? Chaos and cheerleaders. Live bands, Dolphins dancers doing routines by the gates, flamenco (⁉️), and kilometric lines caused by the NFL’s installation of security fencing that left one Madridista muttering: “Dude, 80,000 people come here every weekend and it’s nothing like this.”

• Inside, the Americans drank the Bernabéu dry. Beer and food ran out at several stands (“They weren’t ready for how much we consume,” explained Jack, an American fan, helpfully). A huge number wore jerseys — Dolphins, Commanders, and every random NFL franchise you can think of.

And when the game slowed, the videoboard became the main event. There were babies lifted like Simba, kiss cams, look-alikes, and the obligatory “Sweet Caroline” and “Country Roads” sing-alongs. Daddy Yankee and Bizarrap popped in for a quick halftime set — a “mini-Super-Bowl,” as promised.

The numbers. They are big. 78,610 fans in attendance, with foreign visitors making up 42,000 of them — mostly from the U.S. and nearby Europe. And then there’s the economic impact:

• €21 million spent in Madrid bars, restaurants, and shops.

• €15+ million in hotel bookings.

• €3.3 million in public money chipped in by Madrid governor Ayuso and Mayor Almeida as part of their “make Madrid the center of the universe” plan.

The NFL was so pleased that Roger Goodell basically told Real Madrid bossman Florentino Pérez: “See you next year.” The league is considering keeping Madrid on the calendar through 2028. (We don’t believe this guy who says it won’t come back.)

The gossip. Bizarrap and Daddy Yankee reportedly weren’t the first choice. Journo José Antonio Ponseti told Carrusel Deportivo the NFL offered the halftime show to Rosalía — who is in full promo mode with LUX and was literally in Madrid last week.

• But when she told the NFL what she wanted for staging, they reportedly replied: “Eso es nivel Super Bowl, no nivel partido en Madrid.” Translation: “Too big. Too expensive. This isn’t the Super Bowl, Rosi.”

So she said no. But the league clearly has her in its sights. Super Bowl 2027, anyone?

4.🥊 Ayuso and Health Ministry battle over abortion

Let the pre-pre-election posturing begin! Health Minister Mónica García announced Saturday that the government was filing a lawsuit against the Madrid regional government, led by Isabel Díaz Ayuso of the center-right PP, after it missed the deadline to create a registry of doctors who conscientiously object to performing abortions, a requirement introduced in the 2023 reform of Spain’s reproductive rights law.

• Evoking the big 🍊. García said Ayuso was “obstructing women’s rights” and behaving in a “Trumpian” fashion by openly defying national law.

• Outsourcing abortions. PM Sánchez said on X that the government had instructed the State Attorney’s Office to take the case to the courts and accused Ayuso of “turning an essential right into a business”, noting that her government currently outsources more than 99% of abortions to private clinics.

The center of the storm? A list. The law requires regions to create a registry of medical objectors, a confidential database meant to help hospitals plan staffing so that a doctor’s personal objection doesn’t prevent women from getting legal abortions in the public system.

• The registry does not penalize those on it, and is not accessible to the public.

• But Ayuso insists it is a tool to “persecute” conscientious doctors, a kind of blacklist disguised as public administration. She responded to Sánchez (also on X) by saying that “only a dictator can force people to do what they don’t want to do”.

• Madrid is now the only region refusing to create it, after Aragón and the Balearic Islands (both PP-led regions that initially opposed the measure) agreed to comply with the law.

Ayuso has not dialled down her rhetoric. In a very tense exchange in early October, she told the Madrid parliament she would “never” create the list and, “Go somewhere else to get an abortion!”

• All at once! She also accused the government of “promoting” abortion, lamented Spain’s number of annual terminations, invoked the Constitution, referenced the Qur’an, mentioned Hamas, and brought up the Civil War — all in one answer.

And she hasn’t backed down since. The confrontation has also had an impact inside the PP, which has been thrown into (another) internal crisis over reproductive rights.

• Party boss Alberto Núñez Feijóo, who’s more moderate than Ayuso, had quietly attempted to coordinate a unified position among PP-run regions, hoping to avoid exactly this kind of culture-war spectacle.

• But the plan evaporated when Ayuso contradicted her own health minister — who just days earlier had said the region would comply — and declared open rebellion.

• Fine, go for it. After a month of clear discomfort among other regional leaders who have complied with the law, the party ultimately folded. This week, the party’s national leadership formally backed Ayuso’s decision to let the courts decide, effectively endorsing her refusal to apply the law.

Now the case moves to the courts, where judges will decide whether Madrid has the authority to defy the national law as passed by parliament.

• Inside the PP. Ayuso has once again dragged the party into a fight it didn’t want and forced Feijóo to bend to her line. Who’s going to be the candidate whenever elections are called? Just asking for a friend…

5. 🧓🏻➕👶 So… we’ve got good news, and bad news

Spain woke up Wednesday to one of those classic split-screen headlines. On the left, you’ve got a cheerful graphic of a very old, very happy Spanish señora blowing out 84 candles. On the right, there’s an empty maternity ward echoing like a cathedral on a Tuesday morning.

Because yes, we did it! For the first time ever, life expectancy in Spain has crossed the 84-year mark. According to new INE data, life expectancy at birth reached 84.01 years in 2024. Congratulations to all involved. Yes, you: the Mediterranean diet, the Spanish healthcare system, and whatever pharmaceutical magic is keeping half the country’s abuelos doing the Camino.

• Men now live to 81.38, women to 86.53, and the only real interruption to this decades-long climb was, well, you know… that year. (you know… that damn pandemic.)

But before we pop the cava, the bad news arrives with the punctuality of an AVE train of a few years ago (you know, before they started arriving late). Spain also hit a new historic low for births.

• Just 318,005 babies were born in 2024. That’s the lowest number since INE started keeping records in 1941, and 0.8% fewer than the year before. Let that sink in: the lowest since 1941, just after the civil war, when the population was 26m, or barely half what it is now. If Spain’s fecundity was a stock, Wall Street would be screaming “Sell!”

• The average number of children per woman has now slipped to 1.1 — so far below replacement level that even the demographers have stopped pretending this is a “trend” and now call it what it is: a serious threat to the onesie industry.

And the kicker? Deaths still comfortably outnumber births. In 2024, there were 436,118 deaths and 318,005 births, leaving Spain with a “vegetative balance” (we know we’re weird, but we love that term) of –116,056.

• That marks eight straight years of more funerals than baptisms. Or, an era in which Spain’s population has only grown thanks to immigration and the fact that our elderly simply refuse to die.

Final note. The share of babies born to mothers aged 40+ keeps rising (now 10.4%), which is great for empowering women to have children on their terms… but not great for, you know, having enough children to keep the pension system from crying itself to sleep.

🙏 Once again, please remember to share this newsletter with your friends on social media. The more we grow, the more information we’ll be able to offer each week.

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