Apartments in hiawatha ks
Kansas State University
2010.11.04 07:42 nobrate Kansas State University
A subreddit for anything and everything K-State! Go Wildcats!
2023.06.09 23:33 Enali (Spoilers Extended) And Out Come the Wolves...
“Now this is the Law of the Jungle -- as old and as true as the sky; And the Wolf that shall keep it may prosper, but the Wolf that shall break it must die. As the creeper that girdles the tree-trunk the Law runneth forward and back -- For the strength of the Pack is the Wolf, and the strength of the Wolf is the Pack.” (Rudyard Kipling)
Will the Stark direwolves face off against the Bolton hounds as the white winds blow across the frozen wilds in the Battle of Ice? Towards the leadup to Game of Thrones' Battle of Bastards episode GRRM left this tantalizing glimpse for its showrunners:
Despite the limitations of time and distance several clues surrounding the training of Ramsay's hounds in the books seem to suggest similar buildup:
Of the four remaining direwolves in the series though their positions are spread far from Winterfell, so the logistics of having the come together will be important for this to work.
Summer - we last leave Bran's direwolf at the cave of the last greenseer, at the giant weirwood who's roots lead to Westeros' underworld. The drifts have grown so strong that the entrance to the cavern has become snowed over - something Summer must dig through each night to join his pack and hunt while the restless dead wander outside (and living prey remain scarce), before retreating to the cave during the day to to get good-boy head pats from Meera sitting with Bran near the fire. Bran's connection to Summer remains, though his identity seems to be becoming more and more split between his various forms, sometimes as Summer, others as a raven learning to fly or in the roots of the tree traversing time and space. Summer has been able to take control of One Eye's small pack (who is being warged into by Varamyr) after their skirmish and they were even able to take out an undead snow bear together. So what could get Summer moving south? Will Bran read the fates in the tree and send him out? Will something happen to Bran at the tree that sets this event in motion? Summer may not be the largest of the direwolves, though he is often perceived as the smartest and most perceptive.
Shaggydog - Rickon's black direwolf with the eyes of green wildfire is the most savage of the pack, despite his size, and Rickon himself seems to becoming more and more in tune with his wolf each passing day. A strengthening connection Jon seemed to experience as well after reuniting with Ghost leading up to the mutiny. Rickon also seems to have a connection to prophecy similar to Bran, awaiting their father in the Crypts of Winterfell... though unlike Bran he seems to have more a natural comfort in darkness and with death. Shaggydog is in Skagos, last seen in one of Jon's wolf dreams tearing off the flesh of an enormous goat/[unicorn] in a wild rain washing the blood where his prey's horn raked him. In the early drafts of AFFC (thanks to gsteff's research) we actually see that the direwolf was sharing the kill 'with his other half' though that part was removed leaving Rickon's fate more uncertain. How does he get back? That part seems clear at least, Davos is currently en route to try to retrieve the boy and bring him for Wyman Manderly to setup as an heir to Winterfell, though there are plenty of ominous signs on the voyage (the barren seal rock, Davos' missing fingerbones, and per Bran Rickon telling him no will ever come back to Winterfell).
Nymeria - Arya's wolfie is leading a very successful life since she was let go near the Trident to protect her from Cersei's wrath, a spot she hasn't strayed too far from given the abundance of prey compared to the frigid north. Nymeria has gathered an enormous following of wolves that haunts the Riverlands and the Kingsroad. ("She says there's this great pack, hundreds of them, mankillers. The one that leads them is a she-wolf, a bitch from the seventh hell.") Under Nymeria's leadership her grey cousins have "lost all fear of men" ransacking baggage trains, killing armed sentries near Riverrun, and even tearing apart a group of Brave Companions, so that its remarked that they are not wolves at all but "demons in the skins of wolves, sent to chastise us for our sins." Nymeria seems to represent the one part of Arya that she can't shake even as she convinces herself that she is no one, or that she is a cat now wandering Braavos. At night the dreams return tethering her to her roots. In Mercy's Winds excerpt we see a last glimpse of Nymeria, running through dark pine forests hard on the scent of prey, and with a howling in her heart, the full moon overhead as the tree (perhaps Bran or Bloodraven) watches her run. Is she still in the Riverlands (if so will she play a part in the events around Lady Stoneheart) or has she finally started to head home? I'd hate for her to be left out of the reunion as... "When the snows fall and the white winds blow, the lone wolf dies, but the pack survives. "
Ghost - And of course Jon's direwolf, Ghost, his silent white shadow. Ghost is left at Castle Black while the mutiny occurs, and it seems likely, that with Jon's last words they are now together in one form. This would also fit Melisandre vision "Now he was a man, now a wolf, now a man again." Jon has also thought in the past if some part of his brothers remained in their wolves when they died. But Ghost was left locked up in the Lord Commander's Tower to prevent an incident with the skinchanger Borroq or his giant boar who the wolf distrusts. Will the mutineers go after Ghost now that Jon has been slain? If so he may need to fight his way out once they open the doors.... or, perhaps, Melisandre might let him go herself. Ghost and her have a pretty uncanny connection with their blazing red eyes (though Jon thinks the red of Ghost's eyes is more of the Old Gods), and Ghost even hesitates to leave her side to go back to Jon when called ("Warmth calls to warmth, Jon Snow"). According to Melisandre there is power in him and the beast which Jon Snow has been resisting and is yet to use... She also mentions Lord Snow would have need of her beyond the Wall ("He does not know it yet, but soon..."). Very mysterious....
But one thing seems clearer, if Ghost is to head south, he already has good cause to. One of Jon's last convictions before his death was to march south to Winterfell try to save his sister after incited by the pink letter. If his soul has carried over to the wolf perhaps that conviction may still remain....
There may or may not even be one subtle additional hint that Summer and Shaggydog could be in Winterfell soon worth discussing. In the finale chapter of A Clash of Kings Bran has one of the more prominent wolf dreams in the series while hiding in the crypts. In it he sees Winterfell burned and everyone there killled, and we are meant to believe that this was the view of what was happening right outside, as the Bolton forces sacked it. But while what he sees seems to match up, some elements of the dream remain questionable - among them the "great winged snake whose roar was a river of flame." (a pretty reasonable depiction of a dragon that might occur from a wolf's pov). Though the interpretation differs amongst readers - Some believe its just GRRM taking visual liberties with the smoke and fire... though wolves recognized real smoke and fire just before that and wolf povs are fairly unpoetic with their descriptions. Some also think it it may have been a way to describe the red comet, but the figure soon disappears from view which could be strange, unless its just meant to be obscured. Or was it a real dragon? It might have been one of the rumored offspring of Vermax born near the hot springs, sneaking in during the carnage. Osha does mention that they "made noise enough to wake a dragon." But perhaps one other interpretation is that Bran was dreaming green, seeing prophecy instead of present. Because Winterfell has been partially rebuilt by the Boltons and Freys during their occupation, we may see Winterfell burned once more. If Stannis takes the city, he may just start a new fire to wake dragons from stone, one that may escape his control.
submitted by Enali to asoiaf [link] [comments]
Will the Stark direwolves face off against the Bolton hounds as the white winds blow across the frozen wilds in the Battle of Ice? Towards the leadup to Game of Thrones' Battle of Bastards episode GRRM left this tantalizing glimpse for its showrunners:
[N.B. A note for future reference. A season or two down the line Ramsay’s pack of wolfhounds are going to be sent against the Stark direwolves, so we should build up the dogs as much as possible in this and subsequent episodes.]And it feels like there's a sense of certainty in the note that clues us to the future of his work, but how could it even work in the books? The march on Winterfell so far is a fair bit different than its show counterpart (assuming that's what it is), and the direwolves are spread all across the map, seemingly content to be where they are. But with Boltons on a collision course with Stannis, and the food running sparse, it sets a short time window for this encounter to manifest, assuming of course, that the Boltons are defeated in the fight. Which perhaps teasingly takes form in a village in the middle of the giant primordial forest called the Wolfswood.
"The wolfswood," Benjen Stark called it, and indeed their nights came alive with the howls of distant packs, and some not so distant. Jon Snow's albino direwolf pricked up his ears at the nightly howling, but never raised his own voice in reply. There was something very unsettling about that animal, Tyrion thought.Given Stannis' confirmed role in the burning of Shireen, and Dany's HotU vision of the blue eyed king casting no shadow, (as well as the fan favorite Night Lamp theory) it seems like a safe guess he will survive the first bout at least.
Despite the limitations of time and distance several clues surrounding the training of Ramsay's hounds in the books seem to suggest similar buildup:
"He's trained 'em to kill wolves as well," Ben Bones had confided. Reek said nothing. He knew which wolves the girls were meant to kill, but he had no wish to watch the girls fighting over his severed toe....
"Stark's little wolflings are dead," said Ramsay, sloshing some more ale into his cup, "and they'll stay dead. Let them show their ugly faces, and my girls will rip those wolves of theirs to pieces. The sooner they turn up, the sooner I kill them again."and this quote not directly referencing Ramsay's hounds but seemingly related (credit to LChris24's post or I would have missed this one):
The rest of the dogs were close behind, the hounds sniffing and barking, a pair of monstrous mastiffs bringing up the rear. Their size and ferocity might make the difference against a cornered direwolf.I think there is a solid amount of buildup to the possibility of these two forces coming together, claw and gnashing fang.
The Call of the Wild
*“The Wild still lingered in him and the wolf in him merely slept.” * (Jack London)Of the four remaining direwolves in the series though their positions are spread far from Winterfell, so the logistics of having the come together will be important for this to work.
Summer - we last leave Bran's direwolf at the cave of the last greenseer, at the giant weirwood who's roots lead to Westeros' underworld. The drifts have grown so strong that the entrance to the cavern has become snowed over - something Summer must dig through each night to join his pack and hunt while the restless dead wander outside (and living prey remain scarce), before retreating to the cave during the day to to get good-boy head pats from Meera sitting with Bran near the fire. Bran's connection to Summer remains, though his identity seems to be becoming more and more split between his various forms, sometimes as Summer, others as a raven learning to fly or in the roots of the tree traversing time and space. Summer has been able to take control of One Eye's small pack (who is being warged into by Varamyr) after their skirmish and they were even able to take out an undead snow bear together. So what could get Summer moving south? Will Bran read the fates in the tree and send him out? Will something happen to Bran at the tree that sets this event in motion? Summer may not be the largest of the direwolves, though he is often perceived as the smartest and most perceptive.
Shaggydog - Rickon's black direwolf with the eyes of green wildfire is the most savage of the pack, despite his size, and Rickon himself seems to becoming more and more in tune with his wolf each passing day. A strengthening connection Jon seemed to experience as well after reuniting with Ghost leading up to the mutiny. Rickon also seems to have a connection to prophecy similar to Bran, awaiting their father in the Crypts of Winterfell... though unlike Bran he seems to have more a natural comfort in darkness and with death. Shaggydog is in Skagos, last seen in one of Jon's wolf dreams tearing off the flesh of an enormous goat/[unicorn] in a wild rain washing the blood where his prey's horn raked him. In the early drafts of AFFC (thanks to gsteff's research) we actually see that the direwolf was sharing the kill 'with his other half' though that part was removed leaving Rickon's fate more uncertain. How does he get back? That part seems clear at least, Davos is currently en route to try to retrieve the boy and bring him for Wyman Manderly to setup as an heir to Winterfell, though there are plenty of ominous signs on the voyage (the barren seal rock, Davos' missing fingerbones, and per Bran Rickon telling him no will ever come back to Winterfell).
Nymeria - Arya's wolfie is leading a very successful life since she was let go near the Trident to protect her from Cersei's wrath, a spot she hasn't strayed too far from given the abundance of prey compared to the frigid north. Nymeria has gathered an enormous following of wolves that haunts the Riverlands and the Kingsroad. ("She says there's this great pack, hundreds of them, mankillers. The one that leads them is a she-wolf, a bitch from the seventh hell.") Under Nymeria's leadership her grey cousins have "lost all fear of men" ransacking baggage trains, killing armed sentries near Riverrun, and even tearing apart a group of Brave Companions, so that its remarked that they are not wolves at all but "demons in the skins of wolves, sent to chastise us for our sins." Nymeria seems to represent the one part of Arya that she can't shake even as she convinces herself that she is no one, or that she is a cat now wandering Braavos. At night the dreams return tethering her to her roots. In Mercy's Winds excerpt we see a last glimpse of Nymeria, running through dark pine forests hard on the scent of prey, and with a howling in her heart, the full moon overhead as the tree (perhaps Bran or Bloodraven) watches her run. Is she still in the Riverlands (if so will she play a part in the events around Lady Stoneheart) or has she finally started to head home? I'd hate for her to be left out of the reunion as... "When the snows fall and the white winds blow, the lone wolf dies, but the pack survives. "
Ghost - And of course Jon's direwolf, Ghost, his silent white shadow. Ghost is left at Castle Black while the mutiny occurs, and it seems likely, that with Jon's last words they are now together in one form. This would also fit Melisandre vision "Now he was a man, now a wolf, now a man again." Jon has also thought in the past if some part of his brothers remained in their wolves when they died. But Ghost was left locked up in the Lord Commander's Tower to prevent an incident with the skinchanger Borroq or his giant boar who the wolf distrusts. Will the mutineers go after Ghost now that Jon has been slain? If so he may need to fight his way out once they open the doors.... or, perhaps, Melisandre might let him go herself. Ghost and her have a pretty uncanny connection with their blazing red eyes (though Jon thinks the red of Ghost's eyes is more of the Old Gods), and Ghost even hesitates to leave her side to go back to Jon when called ("Warmth calls to warmth, Jon Snow"). According to Melisandre there is power in him and the beast which Jon Snow has been resisting and is yet to use... She also mentions Lord Snow would have need of her beyond the Wall ("He does not know it yet, but soon..."). Very mysterious....
But one thing seems clearer, if Ghost is to head south, he already has good cause to. One of Jon's last convictions before his death was to march south to Winterfell try to save his sister after incited by the pink letter. If his soul has carried over to the wolf perhaps that conviction may still remain....
There may or may not even be one subtle additional hint that Summer and Shaggydog could be in Winterfell soon worth discussing. In the finale chapter of A Clash of Kings Bran has one of the more prominent wolf dreams in the series while hiding in the crypts. In it he sees Winterfell burned and everyone there killled, and we are meant to believe that this was the view of what was happening right outside, as the Bolton forces sacked it. But while what he sees seems to match up, some elements of the dream remain questionable - among them the "great winged snake whose roar was a river of flame." (a pretty reasonable depiction of a dragon that might occur from a wolf's pov). Though the interpretation differs amongst readers - Some believe its just GRRM taking visual liberties with the smoke and fire... though wolves recognized real smoke and fire just before that and wolf povs are fairly unpoetic with their descriptions. Some also think it it may have been a way to describe the red comet, but the figure soon disappears from view which could be strange, unless its just meant to be obscured. Or was it a real dragon? It might have been one of the rumored offspring of Vermax born near the hot springs, sneaking in during the carnage. Osha does mention that they "made noise enough to wake a dragon." But perhaps one other interpretation is that Bran was dreaming green, seeing prophecy instead of present. Because Winterfell has been partially rebuilt by the Boltons and Freys during their occupation, we may see Winterfell burned once more. If Stannis takes the city, he may just start a new fire to wake dragons from stone, one that may escape his control.
The Cry of the Blood Moon
There is one really interesting way I think the direwolves might be finally called together. There's been a lot said about how quiet Ghost throughout the books.... only Jon seems to hear him, perhaps telepathically, calling to him at the beginning when no one else could. But with Jon now inhabiting Ghost, could the direwolf gain his voice at last?Ghost sat on his haunches watching, silent as ever. Will he howl for me when I'm dead, as Bran's wolf howled when he fell? Jon wondered. Will Shaggydog howl, far off in Winterfell, and Grey Wind and Nymeria, wherever they might be?Ghost is drawn to the hills and the high places looking up at the stars, and while he starts off the smallest of the litter he soon grows to be the largest of the direwolves, perhaps foreshadowing his strength and leadership. Maybe its fitting then that it would be Ghost that calls them home to be a pack again with the boy's death.
Do they miss their brothers and sisters too? Bran wondered. Are they calling to Grey Wind and Ghost, to Nymeria and Lady's Shade? Do they want them to come home and be a pack together?And if so would it be a physical blood curdling howl or a telepathic one?
There was ice underfoot, and broken stones just waiting to turn an ankle, and the wind was howling fiercely. It sounds like a wolf, thought Sansa. A ghost wolf, big as mountains.~Thank you for Reading!~
2023.06.09 23:33 Armageddonis Witcher Gears lineup as of "Broken Flowers" quest.
I've spent most of my time in this New Game+ save lately in search of every witcher gear set in TW3. As of now i've got every set apart from Manticore and Viper gear sets (due to how "far" i'm in the story - still looking for Jaskier), all upgraded up to what level i can use (55 currently [waiting to get to Kaer Mohren for the Wolven Set upgrades].
As of now i really like the Griffon Set - Thanks to perks mod i was able to increase the number of ability slots a little, so i can fit most of the needed abilities in the build. Even though i went for alchemy mostly, with 4 active signs abilities i get up to 330%+ sign power, with Aard being able to hit enemies for 2K+ damage sometimes. I feel like it does limit my Swords Damage though (with Euforia i'm able to Reach 4k+ damage with swords). Which, depending on how i wan't to go about the fight, might be a bit underwhelming.
Cat gear is of course the best in Sword damage regards (5.5K for sword damage and 240%+ for sign damage) but as someone that preffers a more of a Spell sword type of play, it feels a bit underperforming with mobile enemies (Griffon Set extending the Yrden range and sign power inside of it sure is great).
Bear Gear feels great all around, especially against Big, hard hitting enemies i think, with 4.5K+ sword damage and 220%+ sign power, it's passibe effect seems kinda sucky, if you're not putting every avaliable sign point into Quen sign.
Forgotten Wolf Set quickly falls short of the rest, especially before you reach Kaer Morhen to search for the upgrades (as with the normal Wolven Set). It's passive however, in tandem with the last of the abilities in the Aard line, makes it hit like a mule - it takes 2 aards to kill most common enemies at DM difficulty with scaling up enabled.
So that was my lineup and a bit of an opinion for TW3 Witcher Sets that nobody asked for.
submitted by Armageddonis to Witcher3 [link] [comments]
As of now i really like the Griffon Set - Thanks to perks mod i was able to increase the number of ability slots a little, so i can fit most of the needed abilities in the build. Even though i went for alchemy mostly, with 4 active signs abilities i get up to 330%+ sign power, with Aard being able to hit enemies for 2K+ damage sometimes. I feel like it does limit my Swords Damage though (with Euforia i'm able to Reach 4k+ damage with swords). Which, depending on how i wan't to go about the fight, might be a bit underwhelming.
Cat gear is of course the best in Sword damage regards (5.5K for sword damage and 240%+ for sign damage) but as someone that preffers a more of a Spell sword type of play, it feels a bit underperforming with mobile enemies (Griffon Set extending the Yrden range and sign power inside of it sure is great).
Bear Gear feels great all around, especially against Big, hard hitting enemies i think, with 4.5K+ sword damage and 220%+ sign power, it's passibe effect seems kinda sucky, if you're not putting every avaliable sign point into Quen sign.
Forgotten Wolf Set quickly falls short of the rest, especially before you reach Kaer Morhen to search for the upgrades (as with the normal Wolven Set). It's passive however, in tandem with the last of the abilities in the Aard line, makes it hit like a mule - it takes 2 aards to kill most common enemies at DM difficulty with scaling up enabled.
So that was my lineup and a bit of an opinion for TW3 Witcher Sets that nobody asked for.
2023.06.09 23:33 skinnylegend21 I Was Betrayed by One of My Closest Friends...
I (18F) had a close friend (let's call him Jack, 18M) who I've gotten to know very well last year. We became friends through an ex-friend (let's call her Emma, 18F) and an ex-friend group that I used to be in last year. Emma dumped Jack due to personality differences and it didn't end up on good terms. I supported Emma during that time but was also friends with Jack since we were the closest out of all the other friends in the friend group. Last year, Emma and I had a fight because a friend who Emma had issues with reached out to her and I encouraged her to forgive her because that friend told me beforehand that she wanted to be friends with Emma again. Although Emma eventually forgave that friend, she was extremely mad at me because she heard that since I was involved/knew about the situation before hand, it meant that I was being involved in her business. After that, we never talked to each other and I don't have any plans on talking to Emma. I also broke apart with my ex-friend group because they all believed Emma and didn't hear my side of the story.
Me and Jack remained close friends throughout the rest of the year. I told him about stuff happening in my life: college, school, and boys. I had a crush on a guy this year (let's call him Dylan, 17M) who I'm friends with but I could never confess. I would always talk to Jack about what should I do and how I felt towards him. Jack was on my spam Instagram, which had ~50 followers, and on the close friend list of that account. Jack was pretty involved in my life and I was the same to him but earlier this year, he decided to get back with Emma. I was confused on why he did that since he knew what happened between us and she had insulted him after they broke up. I still remained friends with him, but I was slowly starting to get cautious.
On my story's close friend list of my spam, I posted a picture that I took with me and Dylan and I talked about how cute he was and I called him a nickname that I give to all of my friends. Later on in the day, I found out that Dylan had blocked me on text message and Discord (where I communicate with him the most) and that he was uncomfortable with what I was saying on Instagram.
I was really confused since Dylan doesn't follow my spam and most of the people on the close friend list do not know him at all. The only person who went to the same school as him was Jack. So I confronted Jack about it but he denied everything. I asked a friend (let's call her Claire, 18F) who knew Jack more than me to ask him and he revealed everything to Claire.
Jack screenshotted my private story and sent it to Emma. Emma then proceeds to send it to my ex-friend group who sends it to Dylan. I confront Jack on why he did that and he said that he didn't think Emma seemed to care and denied Emma sending the story to the ex-friend group. I was so heartbroken and betrayed because in that moment, he put Emma's relationship over our year-long friendship. And he never apologized or understood the severity of what he had done. He just defended Emma and denied everything because he knew I was upset at him.
I never contacted Emma and the friend group about this because I feel like I wouldn't know what to say. Dylan had a right to block me and I understand that I should be careful of what I say on the internet. But I can't help but feel betrayed because my trust is broken and I can't even joke around or say anything on my Instagram because it'd be used against me. My friends say to let it go since we've graduated and it'll just be high school drama. But I can't help but feel the opposite.
submitted by skinnylegend21 to offmychest [link] [comments]
Me and Jack remained close friends throughout the rest of the year. I told him about stuff happening in my life: college, school, and boys. I had a crush on a guy this year (let's call him Dylan, 17M) who I'm friends with but I could never confess. I would always talk to Jack about what should I do and how I felt towards him. Jack was on my spam Instagram, which had ~50 followers, and on the close friend list of that account. Jack was pretty involved in my life and I was the same to him but earlier this year, he decided to get back with Emma. I was confused on why he did that since he knew what happened between us and she had insulted him after they broke up. I still remained friends with him, but I was slowly starting to get cautious.
On my story's close friend list of my spam, I posted a picture that I took with me and Dylan and I talked about how cute he was and I called him a nickname that I give to all of my friends. Later on in the day, I found out that Dylan had blocked me on text message and Discord (where I communicate with him the most) and that he was uncomfortable with what I was saying on Instagram.
I was really confused since Dylan doesn't follow my spam and most of the people on the close friend list do not know him at all. The only person who went to the same school as him was Jack. So I confronted Jack about it but he denied everything. I asked a friend (let's call her Claire, 18F) who knew Jack more than me to ask him and he revealed everything to Claire.
Jack screenshotted my private story and sent it to Emma. Emma then proceeds to send it to my ex-friend group who sends it to Dylan. I confront Jack on why he did that and he said that he didn't think Emma seemed to care and denied Emma sending the story to the ex-friend group. I was so heartbroken and betrayed because in that moment, he put Emma's relationship over our year-long friendship. And he never apologized or understood the severity of what he had done. He just defended Emma and denied everything because he knew I was upset at him.
I never contacted Emma and the friend group about this because I feel like I wouldn't know what to say. Dylan had a right to block me and I understand that I should be careful of what I say on the internet. But I can't help but feel betrayed because my trust is broken and I can't even joke around or say anything on my Instagram because it'd be used against me. My friends say to let it go since we've graduated and it'll just be high school drama. But I can't help but feel the opposite.
2023.06.09 23:32 Euphoric-Composer-52 Ignore the hair lol. Just killed this in my apartment, what is this??
 | submitted by Euphoric-Composer-52 to whatbugisthis [link] [comments] |
2023.06.09 23:32 IllusionaryZoroark (Fixed) In lieu of Trump’s indictment, I made this preliminary prediction for the 2024 election if he ends up being the nominee against Biden
 | I deleted the last post cause I accidentally made Illinois red instead of blue lol. Feel free to judge this in the comments submitted by IllusionaryZoroark to YAPms [link] [comments] |
2023.06.09 23:31 nohac3 Making a dungeon designed to trap a fire giant
Basically the title. The dwarven capital city of my world uses a captured fire giant kept chained underground as the "battery" for their forges, keeping houses warm, street lamps, everything.
My players will infiltrate the fire giant's prison and release him so he can wreck havoc on the city, thor-ragnarok style.
Any tips on designing the dungeon? I'm having trouble with having a tomb made for keeping something in instead of adventurers out.
It's probably gonna be heavily guarded and I'm thinking of a "chase scene" at the end where the fire giant escapes but indiscriminately destroys everything around. The players have to get out of the city FAST.
Apart from that, any ideas?
submitted by nohac3 to DMAcademy [link] [comments]
My players will infiltrate the fire giant's prison and release him so he can wreck havoc on the city, thor-ragnarok style.
Any tips on designing the dungeon? I'm having trouble with having a tomb made for keeping something in instead of adventurers out.
It's probably gonna be heavily guarded and I'm thinking of a "chase scene" at the end where the fire giant escapes but indiscriminately destroys everything around. The players have to get out of the city FAST.
Apart from that, any ideas?
2023.06.09 23:31 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarketChat! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023.
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead StockMarketChat. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to u/bigbear0083 [link] [comments]
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023.
S&P 500 notches fourth straight positive week, touches highest level since August: Live updates - (Source)
The S&P 500 rose slightly Friday, touching the 4,300 level for the first time since August 2022 as investors looked ahead to upcoming inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s latest policy announcement.
The broad-market index gained 0.11%, closing at 4,298.86. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.16% to end at 13,259.14. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 43.17 points, or 0.13%, closing at 33,876.78. It was the 30-stock Dow’s fourth consecutive positive day.
For the week, the S&P 500 was up 0.39%. This was the broad-market index’s fourth straight winning week — a feat it last accomplished in August. The Nasdaq was up about 0.14%, posting its seventh straight winning week — its first streak of that length since November 2019. The Dow advanced 0.34%.
Investors were encouraged by signs that a broader swath of stocks, including small-cap equities, was participating in the recent rally. The Russell 2000 was down slightly on the day, but notched a weekly gain of 1.9%.
“It’s the first time in a while where investors seem to be feeling a greater sense of certainty. And we think that’s been a turning point from what had been more of a bearish cautious sentiment,” said Greg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments.
“We think that as we walk through these next few weeks, that will be increasingly clear that the economy is more resilient than folks have given it credit for the last six months,” said Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments. “That will sort of dawn on people that small-caps and cyclicals probably have a reasonable shot to play catch up.”
The market is also looking toward next week’s consumer price index numbers and the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Markets are currently anticipating a more than 71% probability the central bank will pause on rate hikes at the June meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
S&P Sectors for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
June’s Quad Witching Options Expiration Riddled With Volatility
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The second Triple Witching Week (Quadruple Witching if you prefer) of the year brings on some volatile trading with losses frequently exceeding gains. NASDAQ has the weakest record on the first trading day of the week. Triple-Witching Friday is usually better, S&P 500 has been up 12 of the last 20 years, but down 6 of the last 8.
Full-week performance is choppy as well, littered with greater than 1% moves in both directions. The week after June’s Triple-Witching Day is horrendous. This week has experienced DJIA losses in 27 of the last 33 years with an average performance of –0.81%. S&P 500 and NASDAQ have fared better during the week after over the same 33-year span. S&P 500’s averaged –0.46%. NASDAQ has averaged +0.03%. 2022’s sizable gains during the week after improve historical average performance notably.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
A New Bull Market: What’s Driving It?
The S&P 500 finally closed 20% above its October 12th (2022) closing low. This puts the index in “official” bull market territory.
Of course, if you had been reading or listening to Ryan on our Facts vs Feelings podcast, you’d have heard him say that October 12th was the low. He actually wrote a piece titled “Why Stocks Likely Just Bottomed” on October 19th!
The S&P 500 Index fell 25% from its peak on January 3rd, 2022 through October 12th. The subsequent 20% gain still puts it 10% below the prior peak. This does get to “math of volatility”. The index would need to gain 33% from its low to regain that level. This is a reason why it’s always better to lose less, is because you need to gain less to get back to even.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
So, what’s next? The good news is that future returns are strong. In his latest piece, Ryan wrote that out of 13 times when stocks rose 20% off a 52-week low, 10 of those times the lows were not violated. The average return 12 months later was close to 18%. The only time we didn’t see a gain was in the 2001-2002 bear market.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
** Digging into the return drivers**
It’s interesting to look at what’s been driving returns over the past year. This can help us think about what may lie ahead. The question was prompted by our friend, Sam Ro’s latest piece on the bull market breakout. He wrote that earnings haven’t been as bad as expected. More importantly, prospects have actually been improving.
The chart below shows earnings expectations for the S&P 500 over the next 12 months. You can see how it rose in the first half of 2022, before collapsing over the second half of the year. The collapse continued into January of this year. But since then, earnings expectations have steadily risen. In fact, they’ve accelerated higher since mid-April, after the last earnings season started. Currently, they’re higher than where we started the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Backing up a bit: we can break apart the price return of a stock (or index) into two components:
I decomposed annual S&P 500 returns from 2020 – 2023 (through June 8th) into these two components. The chart below shows how these added up to the total return for each year. It also includes:
- Earnings growth
- Valuation multiple growth
- The bear market pullback from January 3rd, 2022, through October 12th, 2022
- And the 20% rally from the low through June 8th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
You can see how multiple changes have dominated the swing in returns.
The notable exception is 2021, when the S&P 500 return was propelled by earnings growth. In contrast, the 2022 pullback was entirely attributed to multiple contraction. Earnings made a positive contribution in 2022.
Now, multiple contraction is not surprising given the rapid change in rates, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) looked to get on top of inflation. However, they are close to the end of rate hikes, and so that’s no longer a big drag on multiples.
Consequently, multiple growth has pulled the index higher this year. You can see how multiple contraction basically drove the pullback in the Index during the bear market, through the low. But since then, multiples have expanded, pretty much driving the 20% gain.
Here’s a more dynamic picture of the S&P 500’s cumulative price return action from January 3rd, 2022, through June 8th, 2023. The chart also shows the contribution from earnings and multiple growth. As you can see, earnings have been fairly steady, rising 4% over the entire period. However, the swing in multiples is what drove the price return volatility.
Multiples contracted by 14%, and when combined with 4% earnings growth, you experienced the index return of -10%.
What next?
As I pointed out above, the problem for stocks last year was multiple contraction, which was driven by a rapid surge in interest rates.
The good news is that we’re probably close to end of rate hikes. The Fed may go ahead with just one more rate hike (in July), which is not much within the context of the 5%-point increase in rates that they implemented over the past year.
Our view is that rates are likely to remain where they are for a while. But rates are unlikely to rise from 5% to 10%, or even 7%, unless we get another major inflation shock.
This means a major obstacle that hindered stocks last year is dissipating. The removal of this headwind is yet another positive factor for stocks as we look ahead into the second half of the year.
Why Low Volatility Isn’t Bearish
“There is no such thing as average when it comes to the stock market or investing.” -Ryan Detrick
You might have heard by now, but the CBOE Volatility Index (better known as the VIX) made a new 52-week low earlier this week and closed beneath 14 for the first time in more than three years. This has many in the financial media clamoring that ‘the VIX is low and this is bearish’.
They have been telling us (incorrectly) that only five stocks have been going up and this was bearish, that a recession was right around the corner, that the yield curve being inverted was bearish, that M2 money supply YoY tanking was bearish, and now we have the VIX being low is bearish. We’ve disagreed with all of these worries and now we take issue with a low VIX as being bearish.
What exactly is the VIX you ask? I’d suggest reading this summary from Investopedia for a full explanation, but it is simply how much option players are willing to pay up for potential volatility over the coming 30 days. If they sense volatility, they will pay up for insurance. What you might know is that when the VIX is high (say above 30), that means the market tends to be more volatile and likely in a bearish phase. Versus a low VIX (say sub 15) historically has lead to some really nice bull markets and small amounts of volatility.
Back to your regularly scheduled blog now.
The last time the VIX went this long above 14 was for more than five years, ending in August 2012. You know what happened next that time? The S&P 500 added more than 18% the following 12 months. Yes, this is a sample size of one, but I think it shows that a VIX sub 14 by itself isn’t the end of the world.
One of the key concepts around volatility is trends can last for years. What I mean by this is for years the VIX can be high and for years it can be low. Since 1990, the average VIX was 19.7, but it rarely trades around that average. Take another look at the quote I’ve used many times above, as averages aren’t so average. This chart is one I’ve used for years now and I think we could be on the cusp of another low volatility regime. The red areas are times the VIX was consistently above 20, while the yellow were beneath 20. What you also need to know is those red periods usually took place during bear markets and very volatile markets, while the yellow periods were hallmarked by low volatility and higher equity prices. Are we about to enter a new period of lower volatility? No one of course knows, but if this is about to happen (which is my vote), it is another reason to think that higher equity prices (our base case as we remain overweight equities in our Carson House Views) will be coming.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lastly, I’ll leave you on this potentially bullish point. We like to use relative ratios to get a feel for how one asset is going versus to another. We always want to be in assets or sectors that are showing relative strength, while avoiding areas that are weak.
Well, stocks just broke out to new highs relative to bonds once again. After a period of consolidation during the bear market last year, now we have stocks firmly in the driver seat relative to bonds. This is another reason we remain overweight stocks currently and continue to expect stocks to do better than bonds going forward.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Our Leading Economic Index Says the Economy is Not in a Recession
We’ve been writing since the end of last year about how we believe the economy can avoid a recession in 2023, including in our 2023 outlook. This has run contrary to most other economists’ predictions. Interestingly, the tide has been shifting recently, as we’ve gotten a string of relatively stronger economic data. More so after the latest payrolls data, which surprised again.
One challenge with economic data is that we get so many of them, and a lot of times they can send conflicting signals. It can be hard to parse through all of it and come up with an updated view of the economy after every data release.
One approach is to combine these into a single indicator, i.e. a “leading economic index” (LEI). It’s “leading” because the idea is to give you an early warning signal about economic turning points.
Simply put, it tells you what the economy is doing today and what it is likely to do in the near future.
The most popular LEI points to recession
One of the most widely used LEI’s is released by the Conference Board, and it currently points to recession. As you can see in the chart below, the Conference Board’s LEI is highly correlated with GDP growth – the chart shows year-over-year change in both.
You can see how the index started to fall ahead of the 2001 and 2008 recession (shaded areas). The 2020 pandemic recession was an anomaly since it hit so suddenly. In any case, using an LEI means we didn’t have to wait for GDP data (which are released well after a quarter ends) to tell us whether the economy was close to, or in a recession.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As you probably noticed above, the LEI is down 8% year-over-year, signaling a recession over the next 12 months. It’s been pointing to a recession since last fall, with the index declining for 13 straight months through April.
Quoting the Conference Board:
“The Conference Board forecasts a contraction of economic activity starting in Q2 leading to a mild recession by mid-2023.”
Safe to say, we’re close to mid-2023 and there’s no sign of a recession yet.
What’s inside the LEI
The Conference Board’s LEI has 10 components of which,
You can see how these indicators have pulled the index down by 4.4% over the past 6 months, and by -0.6% in April alone.
- 3 are financial market indicators, including the S&P 500, and make up 22% of the index
- 4 measure business and manufacturing activity (44%)
- 1 measures housing activity (3%)
- 2 are related to the consumer, including the labor market (31%)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s the thing. This popular LEI is premised on the fact that the manufacturing sector, and business activity/sentiment, is a leading indicator of the economy. This worked well in the past but is probably not indicative of what’s happening in the economy right now. For one thing, the manufacturing sector makes up just about 11% of GDP.
Consumption makes up 68% of the economy, and we believe it’s important to capture that.
In fact, consumption was strong in Q1 and even at the start of Q2, thanks to rising real incomes. Housing is also making a turnaround and should no longer be a drag on the economy going forward (as it has been over the past 8 quarters). The Federal Reserve (Fed) is also close to being done with rate hikes. Plus, as my colleague, Ryan Detrick pointed out, the stock market’s turned around and is close to entering a new bull market.
Obviously, there are a lot of data points that we look at and one way we parse through all of it is by constructing our own leading economic index.
An LEI that better reflects the US economy
We believe our proprietary LEI better captures the dynamics of the US economy. It was developed a decade ago and is a key input into our asset allocation decisions.
In contrast to the Conference Board’s measure, it includes 20+ components, including,
Just as an example, the consumer-related data includes unemployment benefit claims, weekly hours worked, and vehicle sales. Housing includes indicators like building permits and new home sales.
- Consumer-related indicators (make up 50% of the index)
- Housing activity (18%)
- Business and manufacturing activity (23%)
- Financial markets (9%)
The chart below shows how our LEI has moved through time – capturing whether the economy is growing below trend, on-trend (a value close to zero), or above trend. Like the Conference Board’s measure, it is able to capture major turning points in the business cycle. It declined ahead of the actual start of the 2011 and 2008 recessions.
As of April, our index is indicating that the economy is growing right along trend.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Last year, the index signaled that the economy was growing below trend, and that the risk of a recession was high.
Note that it didn’t point to an actual recession. Just that “risk” of one was higher than normal. In fact, our LEI held close to the lows we saw over the last decade, especially in 2011 and 2016 (after which the economy, and even the stock market, recovered).
The following chart captures a close-up view of the last 3 and half years, which includes the Covid pullback and subsequent recovery. The contribution from the 4 major categories is also shown. You can see how the consumer has remained strong over the past year – in fact, consumer indicators have been stronger this year than in late 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The main risk of a recession last year was due to the Fed raising rates as fast as they did, which adversely impacted housing, financial markets, and business activity.
The good news is that these sectors are improving even as consumer strength continues. The improvement in housing is notable. Additionally, the drag from financial conditions is beginning to ease as we think that the Federal Reserve gets closer to the end of rate hikes, and markets rally.
Putting the Puzzle Together
Another novel part of our approach is that we have an LEI like the one for the US for more than 25 other countries. Each one is custom built to capture the dynamics of those economies. The individual country LEIs are also subsequently rolled up to a global index to give us a picture of the global economy, as shown below.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
I want to emphasize that we do not rely solely on this as the one and only input into our asset allocation, portfolio and risk management decisions. While it is an important component that encapsulates a lot of significant information, it is just one piece of the puzzle. Our process also has other pillars such as policy (both monetary and fiscal), technical factors, and valuations.
We believe it’s important to put all these pieces together, kind of like putting together a puzzle, to understand what’s happening in the economy and markets, and position portfolios accordingly.
Putting together a puzzle is both a mechanistic and artistic process. The mechanistic aspect involves sorting the pieces, finding edges, and matching colors, etc. It requires a logical and methodical approach, and in our process the LEI is key to that.
However, there is an artistic element as well. As we assemble the pieces together, a larger picture gradually emerges. You can make creative decisions about how each piece fits within the overall picture. Within the context of portfolio management, that takes a diverse range of experience. Which is the core strength of our Investment Research Team.
Welcome to the New Bull Market
“If you torture numbers enough, they will tell you anything.” -Yogi Berra, Yankee great and Hall of Fame catcher
Don’t shoot the messenger, but historically, it is widely considered a new bull market once stocks are more than 20% off their bear market lows. This is similar to when stocks are down 20% they are in a bear market. Well, the S&P 500 is less than one percent away from this 20% threshold, so get ready to hear a lot about it when it eventually happens.
I’m not crazy about this concept, as we’ve been in the camp that the bear market ended in October for months now (we started to say it in late October, getting some really odd looks I might add), meaning a new bull market has been here for a while. Take another look at the great Yogi quote above, as someone can get whatever they want probably when talking about bear and bull markets.
None the less, what exactly does a 20% move higher off a bear market low really mean? The good news is future returns are quite strong.
We found 13 times that stocks soared at least 20% off a 52-week low and 10 times the lows were indeed in and not violated. The only times it didn’t work? Twice during the tech bubble implosion and once during the Financial Crisis. In other words, some of the truly worst times to be invested in stocks. But the other 10 times, once there was a 20% gain, the lows were in and in most cases, higher prices were soon coming. This chart does a nice job of showing this concept, with the red dots the times new lows were still yet to come after a 20% bounce.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s a table with all the breakdowns. A year later stocks were down only once and that was during the 2001/2002 bear market, with the average gain a year after a 20% bounce at a very impressive 17.7%. It is worth noting that the one- and three-month returns aren’t anything special, probably because some type of consolidation would be expected after surges higher, but six months and a year later are quite strong.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As we’ve been saying this full year, we continue to expect stocks to do well this year and the upward move is firmly in place and studies like this do little to change our opinion.
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 9th, 2023
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/11/23
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)($ADBE $ORCL $KR $ACB $ATEX $ITI $LEN $MPAA $JBL $ECX $POWW $HITI $MMMB $CGNT $WLY $RFIL)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(NONE.)
Monday 6.12.23 Before Market Open:
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
Monday 6.12.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.13.23 Before Market Open:
([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
Tuesday 6.13.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.14.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.14.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.15.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.15.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Friday 6.16.23 Before Market Open:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!]())
(NONE.)
Friday 6.16.23 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!
2023.06.09 23:31 Savings-Ad-3340 My (27m) mom (65F) is emotionally unstable and possibly bi-polar. What can I do about this?
Like the title says, my mother is (I believe) very emotionally unstable (possibly bi-polar) and I don't know what I can do at this point. Growing up my mother was very vocal, loud, abrasive and would never just "talk." Lots of yelling, shouting, arguing, trying to dominate every conversation, etc. In many ways though, my mom and I are carbon copies of each other (both in appearance and personality) and I'm scared I'm going to somehow end up like her. I tend to be very impulsive, snappy and argumentative.
To make matters worse, she is a recovering gambling addict and has basically no money left. Savings, gone. Inheritance, gone. I'm not a gambling addict but I have a raging nicotine addiction.
She will routinely send me long texts asking for money, how she is broke, another disaster that happened in her life, just general complaining, etc. I feel absolutely terrible for her as she has some of the worst luck I've ever met in a person, but I'm tired of her calling to lay waste upon me.
She currently has an eye infection and had to buy antibiotics for them. They were not cheap and she called me up, yelled at the top of her lungs and demanded I give her money.
These types of incidences are not uncommon and I feel trapped. I know I need to move on with my own life but she basically has no one else to go to at all. So I guess in a way I'm like her punching bag. She has basically no family life apart from myself and my dad (they're both divorced, but "friends").
On a side note, and I know this is useless information, but I'm going to assume this explains my huge attraction for older women. I'm not even attracted to women my age, only women in their 40's and 50's. I fantasize about being held, loved and touched..... guess I have some mommy issues going on.
I just don't know what to do at this point. I am in the process of moving out but I still feel like this is going to carry over for many years to come unless I do something about this.
TLDR ; My mother is emotionally unstable (possibly bi-polar and manic depression) and I need advice on what I can do to avoid turning out like her. Also probably explains my obvious mommy issues.
submitted by Savings-Ad-3340 to relationships [link] [comments]
To make matters worse, she is a recovering gambling addict and has basically no money left. Savings, gone. Inheritance, gone. I'm not a gambling addict but I have a raging nicotine addiction.
She will routinely send me long texts asking for money, how she is broke, another disaster that happened in her life, just general complaining, etc. I feel absolutely terrible for her as she has some of the worst luck I've ever met in a person, but I'm tired of her calling to lay waste upon me.
She currently has an eye infection and had to buy antibiotics for them. They were not cheap and she called me up, yelled at the top of her lungs and demanded I give her money.
These types of incidences are not uncommon and I feel trapped. I know I need to move on with my own life but she basically has no one else to go to at all. So I guess in a way I'm like her punching bag. She has basically no family life apart from myself and my dad (they're both divorced, but "friends").
On a side note, and I know this is useless information, but I'm going to assume this explains my huge attraction for older women. I'm not even attracted to women my age, only women in their 40's and 50's. I fantasize about being held, loved and touched..... guess I have some mommy issues going on.
I just don't know what to do at this point. I am in the process of moving out but I still feel like this is going to carry over for many years to come unless I do something about this.
TLDR ; My mother is emotionally unstable (possibly bi-polar and manic depression) and I need advice on what I can do to avoid turning out like her. Also probably explains my obvious mommy issues.
2023.06.09 23:31 Few_Maybe5249 Mercury's Tears Saga Continues: Faulty Batch Email
 | Mercurys Tears. Faulty Batch. submitted by Few_Maybe5249 to RedditLaqueristas [link] [comments] This screenshot was posted in the Mooncat Facebook Group. I didn't receive this email (but multiple other did). I ended up reaching out to mooncat again when I saw that another person got this email and had bought the polish around the same time as me. I reached out and while they didn't confirm that my polish was apart of those affected, they are sending me a new polish. Will swatch once recieved. I really do have to give a round of applause to mooncat further exceptional customer service because not only did they refund me and now months later I reach out just because I'm curious if I was affected and they go ahead and send me another one anyway. 10/10. March 27 - Alternative to Mooncats Mercury's Tears? https://www.reddit.com/RedditLaqueristas/comments/1245tln/alternative_to_mooncats_mercurys_tears/ March 28 - UPDATE: Mercury's Tears with different base colors and techniques https://www.reddit.com/RedditLaqueristas/comments/124xrx0/update_mercurys_tears_with_different_base_colors/ April 1 - A follow up on Mooncat’s Mercury’s Tears IRL vs. their website https://www.reddit.com/RedditLaqueristas/comments/128vbnw/a_follow_up_on_mooncats_mercurys_tears_irl_vs/ Photos - https://imgur.io/a/R4hr6TW original website swatch is checkyesmichelle April 6 - The controversial Mercury’s Tears promo image is now missing from the listing on the Mooncat website https://www.reddit.com/RedditLaqueristas/comments/12dsudy/the_controversial_mercurys_tears_promo_image_is/ April 7 - I think I cracked the Mercury’s Tears code https://www.reddit.com/RedditLaqueristas/comments/12eugm3/i_think_i_cracked_the_mercurys_tears_code/ April 18 - OG Mercury's Tears https://www.reddit.com/RedditLaqueristas/comments/12r26tx/og_mercurys_tears/ June 2 - Mercury’s Tears Redemption Tour https://www.reddit.com/RedditLaqueristas/comments/13yoqsc/mercurys_tears_redemption_tou |
2023.06.09 23:31 Worried_Ad_9764 Unveiling the Secrets of Mega Darknet Мега Даркнет: Exploring the Underbelly of the Digital World for Anonymity, Intrigue, and Unfiltered Experiences
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2023.06.09 23:31 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on WallStreetStockMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023.
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead WallStreetStockMarket. :)
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Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023.
S&P 500 notches fourth straight positive week, touches highest level since August: Live updates - (Source)
The S&P 500 rose slightly Friday, touching the 4,300 level for the first time since August 2022 as investors looked ahead to upcoming inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s latest policy announcement.
The broad-market index gained 0.11%, closing at 4,298.86. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.16% to end at 13,259.14. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 43.17 points, or 0.13%, closing at 33,876.78. It was the 30-stock Dow’s fourth consecutive positive day.
For the week, the S&P 500 was up 0.39%. This was the broad-market index’s fourth straight winning week — a feat it last accomplished in August. The Nasdaq was up about 0.14%, posting its seventh straight winning week — its first streak of that length since November 2019. The Dow advanced 0.34%.
Investors were encouraged by signs that a broader swath of stocks, including small-cap equities, was participating in the recent rally. The Russell 2000 was down slightly on the day, but notched a weekly gain of 1.9%.
“It’s the first time in a while where investors seem to be feeling a greater sense of certainty. And we think that’s been a turning point from what had been more of a bearish cautious sentiment,” said Greg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments.
“We think that as we walk through these next few weeks, that will be increasingly clear that the economy is more resilient than folks have given it credit for the last six months,” said Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments. “That will sort of dawn on people that small-caps and cyclicals probably have a reasonable shot to play catch up.”
The market is also looking toward next week’s consumer price index numbers and the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Markets are currently anticipating a more than 71% probability the central bank will pause on rate hikes at the June meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
S&P Sectors for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
June’s Quad Witching Options Expiration Riddled With Volatility
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The second Triple Witching Week (Quadruple Witching if you prefer) of the year brings on some volatile trading with losses frequently exceeding gains. NASDAQ has the weakest record on the first trading day of the week. Triple-Witching Friday is usually better, S&P 500 has been up 12 of the last 20 years, but down 6 of the last 8.
Full-week performance is choppy as well, littered with greater than 1% moves in both directions. The week after June’s Triple-Witching Day is horrendous. This week has experienced DJIA losses in 27 of the last 33 years with an average performance of –0.81%. S&P 500 and NASDAQ have fared better during the week after over the same 33-year span. S&P 500’s averaged –0.46%. NASDAQ has averaged +0.03%. 2022’s sizable gains during the week after improve historical average performance notably.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
A New Bull Market: What’s Driving It?
The S&P 500 finally closed 20% above its October 12th (2022) closing low. This puts the index in “official” bull market territory.
Of course, if you had been reading or listening to Ryan on our Facts vs Feelings podcast, you’d have heard him say that October 12th was the low. He actually wrote a piece titled “Why Stocks Likely Just Bottomed” on October 19th!
The S&P 500 Index fell 25% from its peak on January 3rd, 2022 through October 12th. The subsequent 20% gain still puts it 10% below the prior peak. This does get to “math of volatility”. The index would need to gain 33% from its low to regain that level. This is a reason why it’s always better to lose less, is because you need to gain less to get back to even.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
So, what’s next? The good news is that future returns are strong. In his latest piece, Ryan wrote that out of 13 times when stocks rose 20% off a 52-week low, 10 of those times the lows were not violated. The average return 12 months later was close to 18%. The only time we didn’t see a gain was in the 2001-2002 bear market.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
** Digging into the return drivers**
It’s interesting to look at what’s been driving returns over the past year. This can help us think about what may lie ahead. The question was prompted by our friend, Sam Ro’s latest piece on the bull market breakout. He wrote that earnings haven’t been as bad as expected. More importantly, prospects have actually been improving.
The chart below shows earnings expectations for the S&P 500 over the next 12 months. You can see how it rose in the first half of 2022, before collapsing over the second half of the year. The collapse continued into January of this year. But since then, earnings expectations have steadily risen. In fact, they’ve accelerated higher since mid-April, after the last earnings season started. Currently, they’re higher than where we started the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Backing up a bit: we can break apart the price return of a stock (or index) into two components:
I decomposed annual S&P 500 returns from 2020 – 2023 (through June 8th) into these two components. The chart below shows how these added up to the total return for each year. It also includes:
- Earnings growth
- Valuation multiple growth
- The bear market pullback from January 3rd, 2022, through October 12th, 2022
- And the 20% rally from the low through June 8th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
You can see how multiple changes have dominated the swing in returns.
The notable exception is 2021, when the S&P 500 return was propelled by earnings growth. In contrast, the 2022 pullback was entirely attributed to multiple contraction. Earnings made a positive contribution in 2022.
Now, multiple contraction is not surprising given the rapid change in rates, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) looked to get on top of inflation. However, they are close to the end of rate hikes, and so that’s no longer a big drag on multiples.
Consequently, multiple growth has pulled the index higher this year. You can see how multiple contraction basically drove the pullback in the Index during the bear market, through the low. But since then, multiples have expanded, pretty much driving the 20% gain.
Here’s a more dynamic picture of the S&P 500’s cumulative price return action from January 3rd, 2022, through June 8th, 2023. The chart also shows the contribution from earnings and multiple growth. As you can see, earnings have been fairly steady, rising 4% over the entire period. However, the swing in multiples is what drove the price return volatility.
Multiples contracted by 14%, and when combined with 4% earnings growth, you experienced the index return of -10%.
What next?
As I pointed out above, the problem for stocks last year was multiple contraction, which was driven by a rapid surge in interest rates.
The good news is that we’re probably close to end of rate hikes. The Fed may go ahead with just one more rate hike (in July), which is not much within the context of the 5%-point increase in rates that they implemented over the past year.
Our view is that rates are likely to remain where they are for a while. But rates are unlikely to rise from 5% to 10%, or even 7%, unless we get another major inflation shock.
This means a major obstacle that hindered stocks last year is dissipating. The removal of this headwind is yet another positive factor for stocks as we look ahead into the second half of the year.
Why Low Volatility Isn’t Bearish
“There is no such thing as average when it comes to the stock market or investing.” -Ryan Detrick
You might have heard by now, but the CBOE Volatility Index (better known as the VIX) made a new 52-week low earlier this week and closed beneath 14 for the first time in more than three years. This has many in the financial media clamoring that ‘the VIX is low and this is bearish’.
They have been telling us (incorrectly) that only five stocks have been going up and this was bearish, that a recession was right around the corner, that the yield curve being inverted was bearish, that M2 money supply YoY tanking was bearish, and now we have the VIX being low is bearish. We’ve disagreed with all of these worries and now we take issue with a low VIX as being bearish.
What exactly is the VIX you ask? I’d suggest reading this summary from Investopedia for a full explanation, but it is simply how much option players are willing to pay up for potential volatility over the coming 30 days. If they sense volatility, they will pay up for insurance. What you might know is that when the VIX is high (say above 30), that means the market tends to be more volatile and likely in a bearish phase. Versus a low VIX (say sub 15) historically has lead to some really nice bull markets and small amounts of volatility.
Back to your regularly scheduled blog now.
The last time the VIX went this long above 14 was for more than five years, ending in August 2012. You know what happened next that time? The S&P 500 added more than 18% the following 12 months. Yes, this is a sample size of one, but I think it shows that a VIX sub 14 by itself isn’t the end of the world.
One of the key concepts around volatility is trends can last for years. What I mean by this is for years the VIX can be high and for years it can be low. Since 1990, the average VIX was 19.7, but it rarely trades around that average. Take another look at the quote I’ve used many times above, as averages aren’t so average. This chart is one I’ve used for years now and I think we could be on the cusp of another low volatility regime. The red areas are times the VIX was consistently above 20, while the yellow were beneath 20. What you also need to know is those red periods usually took place during bear markets and very volatile markets, while the yellow periods were hallmarked by low volatility and higher equity prices. Are we about to enter a new period of lower volatility? No one of course knows, but if this is about to happen (which is my vote), it is another reason to think that higher equity prices (our base case as we remain overweight equities in our Carson House Views) will be coming.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lastly, I’ll leave you on this potentially bullish point. We like to use relative ratios to get a feel for how one asset is going versus to another. We always want to be in assets or sectors that are showing relative strength, while avoiding areas that are weak.
Well, stocks just broke out to new highs relative to bonds once again. After a period of consolidation during the bear market last year, now we have stocks firmly in the driver seat relative to bonds. This is another reason we remain overweight stocks currently and continue to expect stocks to do better than bonds going forward.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Our Leading Economic Index Says the Economy is Not in a Recession
We’ve been writing since the end of last year about how we believe the economy can avoid a recession in 2023, including in our 2023 outlook. This has run contrary to most other economists’ predictions. Interestingly, the tide has been shifting recently, as we’ve gotten a string of relatively stronger economic data. More so after the latest payrolls data, which surprised again.
One challenge with economic data is that we get so many of them, and a lot of times they can send conflicting signals. It can be hard to parse through all of it and come up with an updated view of the economy after every data release.
One approach is to combine these into a single indicator, i.e. a “leading economic index” (LEI). It’s “leading” because the idea is to give you an early warning signal about economic turning points.
Simply put, it tells you what the economy is doing today and what it is likely to do in the near future.
The most popular LEI points to recession
One of the most widely used LEI’s is released by the Conference Board, and it currently points to recession. As you can see in the chart below, the Conference Board’s LEI is highly correlated with GDP growth – the chart shows year-over-year change in both.
You can see how the index started to fall ahead of the 2001 and 2008 recession (shaded areas). The 2020 pandemic recession was an anomaly since it hit so suddenly. In any case, using an LEI means we didn’t have to wait for GDP data (which are released well after a quarter ends) to tell us whether the economy was close to, or in a recession.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As you probably noticed above, the LEI is down 8% year-over-year, signaling a recession over the next 12 months. It’s been pointing to a recession since last fall, with the index declining for 13 straight months through April.
Quoting the Conference Board:
“The Conference Board forecasts a contraction of economic activity starting in Q2 leading to a mild recession by mid-2023.”
Safe to say, we’re close to mid-2023 and there’s no sign of a recession yet.
What’s inside the LEI
The Conference Board’s LEI has 10 components of which,
You can see how these indicators have pulled the index down by 4.4% over the past 6 months, and by -0.6% in April alone.
- 3 are financial market indicators, including the S&P 500, and make up 22% of the index
- 4 measure business and manufacturing activity (44%)
- 1 measures housing activity (3%)
- 2 are related to the consumer, including the labor market (31%)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s the thing. This popular LEI is premised on the fact that the manufacturing sector, and business activity/sentiment, is a leading indicator of the economy. This worked well in the past but is probably not indicative of what’s happening in the economy right now. For one thing, the manufacturing sector makes up just about 11% of GDP.
Consumption makes up 68% of the economy, and we believe it’s important to capture that.
In fact, consumption was strong in Q1 and even at the start of Q2, thanks to rising real incomes. Housing is also making a turnaround and should no longer be a drag on the economy going forward (as it has been over the past 8 quarters). The Federal Reserve (Fed) is also close to being done with rate hikes. Plus, as my colleague, Ryan Detrick pointed out, the stock market’s turned around and is close to entering a new bull market.
Obviously, there are a lot of data points that we look at and one way we parse through all of it is by constructing our own leading economic index.
An LEI that better reflects the US economy
We believe our proprietary LEI better captures the dynamics of the US economy. It was developed a decade ago and is a key input into our asset allocation decisions.
In contrast to the Conference Board’s measure, it includes 20+ components, including,
Just as an example, the consumer-related data includes unemployment benefit claims, weekly hours worked, and vehicle sales. Housing includes indicators like building permits and new home sales.
- Consumer-related indicators (make up 50% of the index)
- Housing activity (18%)
- Business and manufacturing activity (23%)
- Financial markets (9%)
The chart below shows how our LEI has moved through time – capturing whether the economy is growing below trend, on-trend (a value close to zero), or above trend. Like the Conference Board’s measure, it is able to capture major turning points in the business cycle. It declined ahead of the actual start of the 2011 and 2008 recessions.
As of April, our index is indicating that the economy is growing right along trend.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Last year, the index signaled that the economy was growing below trend, and that the risk of a recession was high.
Note that it didn’t point to an actual recession. Just that “risk” of one was higher than normal. In fact, our LEI held close to the lows we saw over the last decade, especially in 2011 and 2016 (after which the economy, and even the stock market, recovered).
The following chart captures a close-up view of the last 3 and half years, which includes the Covid pullback and subsequent recovery. The contribution from the 4 major categories is also shown. You can see how the consumer has remained strong over the past year – in fact, consumer indicators have been stronger this year than in late 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The main risk of a recession last year was due to the Fed raising rates as fast as they did, which adversely impacted housing, financial markets, and business activity.
The good news is that these sectors are improving even as consumer strength continues. The improvement in housing is notable. Additionally, the drag from financial conditions is beginning to ease as we think that the Federal Reserve gets closer to the end of rate hikes, and markets rally.
Putting the Puzzle Together
Another novel part of our approach is that we have an LEI like the one for the US for more than 25 other countries. Each one is custom built to capture the dynamics of those economies. The individual country LEIs are also subsequently rolled up to a global index to give us a picture of the global economy, as shown below.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
I want to emphasize that we do not rely solely on this as the one and only input into our asset allocation, portfolio and risk management decisions. While it is an important component that encapsulates a lot of significant information, it is just one piece of the puzzle. Our process also has other pillars such as policy (both monetary and fiscal), technical factors, and valuations.
We believe it’s important to put all these pieces together, kind of like putting together a puzzle, to understand what’s happening in the economy and markets, and position portfolios accordingly.
Putting together a puzzle is both a mechanistic and artistic process. The mechanistic aspect involves sorting the pieces, finding edges, and matching colors, etc. It requires a logical and methodical approach, and in our process the LEI is key to that.
However, there is an artistic element as well. As we assemble the pieces together, a larger picture gradually emerges. You can make creative decisions about how each piece fits within the overall picture. Within the context of portfolio management, that takes a diverse range of experience. Which is the core strength of our Investment Research Team.
Welcome to the New Bull Market
“If you torture numbers enough, they will tell you anything.” -Yogi Berra, Yankee great and Hall of Fame catcher
Don’t shoot the messenger, but historically, it is widely considered a new bull market once stocks are more than 20% off their bear market lows. This is similar to when stocks are down 20% they are in a bear market. Well, the S&P 500 is less than one percent away from this 20% threshold, so get ready to hear a lot about it when it eventually happens.
I’m not crazy about this concept, as we’ve been in the camp that the bear market ended in October for months now (we started to say it in late October, getting some really odd looks I might add), meaning a new bull market has been here for a while. Take another look at the great Yogi quote above, as someone can get whatever they want probably when talking about bear and bull markets.
None the less, what exactly does a 20% move higher off a bear market low really mean? The good news is future returns are quite strong.
We found 13 times that stocks soared at least 20% off a 52-week low and 10 times the lows were indeed in and not violated. The only times it didn’t work? Twice during the tech bubble implosion and once during the Financial Crisis. In other words, some of the truly worst times to be invested in stocks. But the other 10 times, once there was a 20% gain, the lows were in and in most cases, higher prices were soon coming. This chart does a nice job of showing this concept, with the red dots the times new lows were still yet to come after a 20% bounce.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s a table with all the breakdowns. A year later stocks were down only once and that was during the 2001/2002 bear market, with the average gain a year after a 20% bounce at a very impressive 17.7%. It is worth noting that the one- and three-month returns aren’t anything special, probably because some type of consolidation would be expected after surges higher, but six months and a year later are quite strong.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As we’ve been saying this full year, we continue to expect stocks to do well this year and the upward move is firmly in place and studies like this do little to change our opinion.
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 9th, 2023
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/11/23
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)($ADBE $ORCL $KR $ACB $ATEX $ITI $LEN $MPAA $JBL $ECX $POWW $HITI $MMMB $CGNT $WLY $RFIL)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
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Monday 6.12.23 Before Market Open:
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
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Monday 6.12.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.13.23 Before Market Open:
([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
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Tuesday 6.13.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.14.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.14.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.15.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.15.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Friday 6.16.23 Before Market Open:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!]())
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Friday 6.16.23 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
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(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
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DISCUSS!
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2023.06.09 23:31 dlschindler My Crow And The Faerie Heist Horror
Ashes shaped like the entire rave remained in the outline of a single soaring rook. I awaited their arrival. I had known to go no further than Man's Bane. I first had to sort out the Choir. I had no choice but to choose which of them would stay and live with the animals and which ones could come with me and my talking crow Cory, back to our own world.
They had a chorus of questions, most of them difficult to answer, for they were the inquisitions of the enchanted and the insane. The gibberings of the transformed ravens, now escaped medieval asylum patients, earned the attention of the inhabitants of Man's Bane. I glanced around nervously at the various animals attempting to walk upright, some of them wearing a single article of clothing or clutching an artifact of the old world.
"We are here to sort out a few of you." I told them plainly. Many of the Choir were compulsive murderers and worse. I simply couldn't unleash them back on the world. They'd have to live among the animals.
I first pointed to Serene Sinclair. "Do you want to stay here or come with me?"
She walked over to where Cory and I were.
"Well if she's your first choice, why not all of them?" Cory squawked.
"You'll remain under my supervision, right?" I asked her.
"I just want to be helpful." She promised.
"You do? Is that right?" I stared. Cory made a grinding noise in the back of his throat that meant he found her words amusing somehow. He was laughing and said in Corvin:
"She quotes you, my Lord. Remember when you met my Winters?"
"Uh, yes." I clicked to him in annoyance. "She has magics."
"Oh. Is that all?" Cory sassed me.
We continued to argue in Corvin as I selected a few more of the Choir. I was being careful. If I picked the wrong one or wasn't careful of the commotion, I could have a riot of lunatics and beastmen. I just wanted to make it home in one piece.
"Dini Ghanat, Jessica Darling, Clide Brown." I called on several more dangerous ones, yet they were the ones that were too dangerous to leave behind. Cory clicked rapidly at me in disapproval.
"Your bird. It does not like me." Dini Ghanat said with his heavy accent. I reached into my bag and took out the little leather case with his serum inside.
"You will not operate without my oversight." I told him.
"Of course not. You are our fearless leader." Dini Ghanat grinned obsequiously. I trusted him as far as I could reach. I knew better than to leave him behind in the fertile world of unguarded labs and shuffling beastmen. He'd experiment on them and make some kind of weird animal-man realm that I would have to worry about. I wanted to leave Man's Bane behind and forget the world or time period entirely.
"Christo?" I asked the man with a different Christo in his mind. He looked at me as the Christo I could trust.
"You can come too." I told him. Then I told him he was on fire and the other Christo stared at me. I told that Christo: "Sorry. You gotta stay here. You will never have another birthday if you come with us. Here though, it is always Saturday. Tomorrow is your birthday, and you know what that means."
"I can play with Polly?" The other Christo asked. His menacing grin spread, reminding me vaguely of the cartoon of the Grinch from my childhood.
"Well, goodnight Christo." I smiled. Christo turned around and then looked at me and asked:
"Where are we going?"
"I'm going home and I am taking you with me." I promised.
"I don't think this is how this works." Cory advised me with mock cynicism.
"It was your idea!" I hissed back.
"Oh yeah." Cory made a noise that was his most mischievous.
I picked a few more before we took that final flight as ravens. I got Samual Monica, Castini Ishbaal and Father Dublin the Exorcist. We flew the rest of the way, backwards through time, as ravens. The Choir was split, I'd say those I left there became the Choir and those I took were no longer really of the Choir anymore.
The world had changed in many ways and yet it had stayed the same. What I mean, is that the disasters of the time when we struggled to close the book of evil, or the time we were in Dellfriar and the world ended, all seemed to be gone.
The effect of such horrors pressed in from the sides of the familiar world I had once known. I asked Cory:
"Am I experiencing hallucinations from the medications we were taking in Dellfriar?"
"No, my Lord. We are escaped mental hospital patients in the same world we left long ago. How is this possible?" Cory sounded amazed and spoke in English.
I looked at the assembled ex-Choir members with me. They were all somehow out-of-place if we weren't facing the post apocalyptic horrors I had expected.
"You look confused." Dini Ghanat told me.
"I thought." I stammered. "I thought things would be different out here."
"How? We escaped." Father Dublin smiled. "What did you expect?"
"A world in ruins and desolation. A world ruled by rampant monsters and vengeful enemies like the Folk Of The Shaded Places." I tried to explain what my expectations were. "This changes things."
"This world is coming apart at the seems. It is about to collapse. The ends of all worlds push at its sides, like a dying universe, everything dies." Serene Sinclair announced in proclamation.
"Now wait." I told her. "You sense all of that too?"
"Indeed. You have chosen a tribe of the most dangerous, and some might be too dangerous. You chose most of them not." Serene Sinclair prophesized me. "And you would know death either way. At least this way you shall know its form."
"I'm starting to like her too." Cory chirped meanly.
"Your bird doesn't like any of us, does he, Mr. Briar?" Dini Ghanat was somehow behind me. I'd taken my eye off of him for one second.
"He doesn't trust you. He's seen how dangerous you all are. I'm taking you home to my family, showing a lot of trust in all of you, despite what I too have seen you all do. However, unlike those we left behind, none of you have ever threatened me or Cory or my family. To be fair, you've never given me a reason not to trust you."
"You're speaking to all of us, then?" Clide Brown asked.
"Dude, you're a werewolf." I gestured that I was making my point anyway. He nodded and muttered:
"Good point. I see your point. Yeah."
"I couldn't leave you people behind. Over these years, stealing artifacts and everything, you all have become like this depraved, lunatic family to me. Stop drooling." I said. I was looking at Christo on my last beat. "The point is, I have another family. Can I count on all of you as I already have? I have to ask."
"You can't count on me. We don't know if the moon is full. I could kill everyone." Clide Brown had changed his discord as he spoke. His confidence always went out of him whenever anyone mentioned his other half.
"Cory, is the moon full?" I asked my talking crow. Cory called out and his crow's call was answered by another.
"Of course it is." Cory said in English.
"See?" Clide Brown started swearing.
"Relax, I am only joking. We have a few nights to get ready for your monthly puberty." Cory teased the agitated werewolf.
Clide Brown frowned but was obviously still far from any sort of anger. He had the best anger management skills.
We all got onto the back of a hay wagon with nobody driving it and rode into town. In the street outside Dr. Leidenfrost's apartment we stood, a gaggle of straight jackets and a gleaming razor sharp hook on the end of Jessica Darling's prosthetic arm. There were no other visible weapons, but I knew all of them were armed.
It was early evening and I sensed something watching us. They were in the shadows, moving along in the darkness and avoiding the streetlights as they turned on one-by-one in the gloom.
"What is it?" Father Dublin asked, fear beaded on his forehead as he realized we were being stalked.
"Folk Of The Shaded Places." I thought I saw one as a dark rod, moving in jagged animation through a patch of shade and shifting light. Somehow the Cambrian elder was like a centipede, in its general shape. They were intricate and with a hundred different limbs and their faces somehow evoked an image of all-teeth, the kind that snack on trilobites. I knew their intelligence too, an angry and ancient species, waiting for their world to return to their endless hands. It was just my imagination, but it was also reality. Folk Of the Shaded Places could travel instantly from one dark corner, into a dream, through a wall and back into another shadow. To see them in any capacity, always occurs as a partial glimpse, easy to ignore.
"What to they want?" Dini Ghanat was perplexed. He used a simple charm to look and try to see them magically. "I'd like to know them better."
"No, you wouldn't. Trust me." I assured the mad alchemist and disgraced scientist that stared after the spy from the darkness.
The spies in the darkness were gone, I could sense that they had left us.
"Daddy!" Came the voices of Persephone Briar and Penelope Leidenfrost, my daughters. They came running out to greet me.
"I knew you were coming. I've watched all of your flights." Penelope told me. Her heterochromic eyes were the most beautiful in the whole world. She blinked as she spoke to me for the first time in her life.
"Daddy, you're back. Sister told me you were here." Persephone told me.
I stared at her, unbelieving how she had grown. My mind flashed to the rampage of the giant horse, death, gemstones, all of it to serve the cats so that she would live. I had always loved her, even when she was not alive, at the beginning.
I hugged them both.
"Such a sweet reunion." Samual Monica commented. There was always a strange hint in his voice. Part of me was not happy to let him near my family, but also, he was family now too.
Then I looked up and saw the love of my life, after being away for so long. She stood there, every aspect of her was dark, as she stood in the shaft of light from her home. A fairy flitted from her shoulder back to the sanctuary of indoors.
"Heidi?" I stared and stood and trembled. My legs forgot their strength when I tried to walk towards her. Clide and Christo were there to hold me up.
"I can walk." I said softly and I did. I walked to Dr. Leidenfrost.
"Welcome home, Lord." Dr. Leidenfrost stared at me. I wondered if she still loved me too. I noticed Isidore approaching me. She hugged me and then stepped back next to Dr. Leidenfrost.
"Who are all of these people?" Dr. Leidenfrost asked me.
"These people are my new family members." I told her.
"A gang of murderers that have escaped from Dellfriar with you?" Dr. Leidenfrost asked strangely.
"Well - I mean -when you put it in that way." I argued against her wording.
"I've missed you so much!" Dr. Leidenfrost nearly jumped me in the parking lot.
"You all have to stay out here." Isidore told the escaped insane asylum patients. "Girls, come inside, now."
And our daughters obeyed and I went inside with my family and Cory flew on in ahead of me and landed on the back of the couch.
"Right now." Dr. Leidenfrost wanted to rekindle our marriage immediately. I went with her and did so. When we were rekindled we found it was almost morning already.
"Your friends are keeping quiet out there." Isidore told me, over breakfast.
"What is going on? You're the only people we've seen." I ate.
"There's a massive evacuation going on." Dr. Leidenfrost explained. "But Agent Saint called and told us to stay right here. She said it would be safe until she gets here."
"Why?" I asked.
"Supposedly there is to be a tsunami. That was more than two days ago." Dr. Leidenfrost nodded sagely. "It was all a lie."
"I see." I gulped. "We gotta feed them. No low blood sugar for our crazy people."
"I already fed them. I didn't want to stay in the apartment while you two, you know." Isidore blushed.
"Did you want some of him? He's still yours too." Dr. Leidenfrost teased her.
"Stop, Heidi." Isidore looked at me and our eyes met briefly. I wondered if she had ever loved me. It didn't matter, she loved me as a friend, which was fair enough. I hadn't felt particularly crazy about her, after-all.
Dr. Leidenfrost watched our gazes repulse each other like opposing magnets and made a clicking sound with her tongue. Cory appreciated the word and translated, hopping up and down with excitement:
"My Matron calls you both cowards!" Cory exclaimed in English.
"You are both cowards." Dr. Leidenfrost confirmed. "That's why I am the head of this family."
"Fair enough." I muttered. Isidore said nothing.
"I don't agree." The soft and melodious voice of our resident fairy spoke up. "Lord has shown courage when he fears for another's sake. I've seen him stand against wrongdoing with no guarantee he could survive."
I looked over and spotted Silver Bell alight upon Dr. Leidenfrost's shoulder. I smiled and greeted her:
"Hello Sylvia." I recalled her earthbound name and used it instead of her Faerie name.
"I've waited a long time to go home." Silver Bell was glowing. "Penelope has drawn my key, but she is not strong enough to conjure. She needs her father for that."
"What?" I asked.
"You stole the way for such a key to be crafted. In Faerie, it was your theft that removed the one who would have touched the gold to craft it into what we needed. No new key can be made, without the hand of a smith. Do you remember?" Silver Bell explained. In her voice she sounded tired, there was no resentment.
"I rescued a child from your queen." I recalled. "Is that the consequence?"
"There is a horror upon your world. If we do not reverse the ways of magic, Man will fall. Nothing good will rise in your place. I have learned of all these things while trapped in your realm. I must report to my queen that Faerie cannot stand and do nothing or we will be obliterated next. What happens to one part of the body affects the whole." Silver Bell spoke slowly and we all listened.
"What horror?" Dr. Leidenfrost asked, her voice hushed.
"Lord knows of it. That is why I know he will help me. Your daughter has drawn my key. Now her father will forge it for me. It must be done." Silver Bell demanded.
Dr. Leidenfrost stood up and went to her desk. She opened a drawer that contained a stack of drawings made by the girls that hadn't made it to the gallery on the refrigerator.
After a silent shuffling she found a drawing of a key. She stared at it and then her eyes watered. She hadn't known what it was.
I got up and walked over to her and said quietly:
"She is like me. She is also like you."
"I know Lord, that's what scares me."
submitted by dlschindler to Wholesomenosleep [link] [comments]
They had a chorus of questions, most of them difficult to answer, for they were the inquisitions of the enchanted and the insane. The gibberings of the transformed ravens, now escaped medieval asylum patients, earned the attention of the inhabitants of Man's Bane. I glanced around nervously at the various animals attempting to walk upright, some of them wearing a single article of clothing or clutching an artifact of the old world.
"We are here to sort out a few of you." I told them plainly. Many of the Choir were compulsive murderers and worse. I simply couldn't unleash them back on the world. They'd have to live among the animals.
I first pointed to Serene Sinclair. "Do you want to stay here or come with me?"
She walked over to where Cory and I were.
"Well if she's your first choice, why not all of them?" Cory squawked.
"You'll remain under my supervision, right?" I asked her.
"I just want to be helpful." She promised.
"You do? Is that right?" I stared. Cory made a grinding noise in the back of his throat that meant he found her words amusing somehow. He was laughing and said in Corvin:
"She quotes you, my Lord. Remember when you met my Winters?"
"Uh, yes." I clicked to him in annoyance. "She has magics."
"Oh. Is that all?" Cory sassed me.
We continued to argue in Corvin as I selected a few more of the Choir. I was being careful. If I picked the wrong one or wasn't careful of the commotion, I could have a riot of lunatics and beastmen. I just wanted to make it home in one piece.
"Dini Ghanat, Jessica Darling, Clide Brown." I called on several more dangerous ones, yet they were the ones that were too dangerous to leave behind. Cory clicked rapidly at me in disapproval.
"Your bird. It does not like me." Dini Ghanat said with his heavy accent. I reached into my bag and took out the little leather case with his serum inside.
"You will not operate without my oversight." I told him.
"Of course not. You are our fearless leader." Dini Ghanat grinned obsequiously. I trusted him as far as I could reach. I knew better than to leave him behind in the fertile world of unguarded labs and shuffling beastmen. He'd experiment on them and make some kind of weird animal-man realm that I would have to worry about. I wanted to leave Man's Bane behind and forget the world or time period entirely.
"Christo?" I asked the man with a different Christo in his mind. He looked at me as the Christo I could trust.
"You can come too." I told him. Then I told him he was on fire and the other Christo stared at me. I told that Christo: "Sorry. You gotta stay here. You will never have another birthday if you come with us. Here though, it is always Saturday. Tomorrow is your birthday, and you know what that means."
"I can play with Polly?" The other Christo asked. His menacing grin spread, reminding me vaguely of the cartoon of the Grinch from my childhood.
"Well, goodnight Christo." I smiled. Christo turned around and then looked at me and asked:
"Where are we going?"
"I'm going home and I am taking you with me." I promised.
"I don't think this is how this works." Cory advised me with mock cynicism.
"It was your idea!" I hissed back.
"Oh yeah." Cory made a noise that was his most mischievous.
I picked a few more before we took that final flight as ravens. I got Samual Monica, Castini Ishbaal and Father Dublin the Exorcist. We flew the rest of the way, backwards through time, as ravens. The Choir was split, I'd say those I left there became the Choir and those I took were no longer really of the Choir anymore.
The world had changed in many ways and yet it had stayed the same. What I mean, is that the disasters of the time when we struggled to close the book of evil, or the time we were in Dellfriar and the world ended, all seemed to be gone.
The effect of such horrors pressed in from the sides of the familiar world I had once known. I asked Cory:
"Am I experiencing hallucinations from the medications we were taking in Dellfriar?"
"No, my Lord. We are escaped mental hospital patients in the same world we left long ago. How is this possible?" Cory sounded amazed and spoke in English.
I looked at the assembled ex-Choir members with me. They were all somehow out-of-place if we weren't facing the post apocalyptic horrors I had expected.
"You look confused." Dini Ghanat told me.
"I thought." I stammered. "I thought things would be different out here."
"How? We escaped." Father Dublin smiled. "What did you expect?"
"A world in ruins and desolation. A world ruled by rampant monsters and vengeful enemies like the Folk Of The Shaded Places." I tried to explain what my expectations were. "This changes things."
"This world is coming apart at the seems. It is about to collapse. The ends of all worlds push at its sides, like a dying universe, everything dies." Serene Sinclair announced in proclamation.
"Now wait." I told her. "You sense all of that too?"
"Indeed. You have chosen a tribe of the most dangerous, and some might be too dangerous. You chose most of them not." Serene Sinclair prophesized me. "And you would know death either way. At least this way you shall know its form."
"I'm starting to like her too." Cory chirped meanly.
"Your bird doesn't like any of us, does he, Mr. Briar?" Dini Ghanat was somehow behind me. I'd taken my eye off of him for one second.
"He doesn't trust you. He's seen how dangerous you all are. I'm taking you home to my family, showing a lot of trust in all of you, despite what I too have seen you all do. However, unlike those we left behind, none of you have ever threatened me or Cory or my family. To be fair, you've never given me a reason not to trust you."
"You're speaking to all of us, then?" Clide Brown asked.
"Dude, you're a werewolf." I gestured that I was making my point anyway. He nodded and muttered:
"Good point. I see your point. Yeah."
"I couldn't leave you people behind. Over these years, stealing artifacts and everything, you all have become like this depraved, lunatic family to me. Stop drooling." I said. I was looking at Christo on my last beat. "The point is, I have another family. Can I count on all of you as I already have? I have to ask."
"You can't count on me. We don't know if the moon is full. I could kill everyone." Clide Brown had changed his discord as he spoke. His confidence always went out of him whenever anyone mentioned his other half.
"Cory, is the moon full?" I asked my talking crow. Cory called out and his crow's call was answered by another.
"Of course it is." Cory said in English.
"See?" Clide Brown started swearing.
"Relax, I am only joking. We have a few nights to get ready for your monthly puberty." Cory teased the agitated werewolf.
Clide Brown frowned but was obviously still far from any sort of anger. He had the best anger management skills.
We all got onto the back of a hay wagon with nobody driving it and rode into town. In the street outside Dr. Leidenfrost's apartment we stood, a gaggle of straight jackets and a gleaming razor sharp hook on the end of Jessica Darling's prosthetic arm. There were no other visible weapons, but I knew all of them were armed.
It was early evening and I sensed something watching us. They were in the shadows, moving along in the darkness and avoiding the streetlights as they turned on one-by-one in the gloom.
"What is it?" Father Dublin asked, fear beaded on his forehead as he realized we were being stalked.
"Folk Of The Shaded Places." I thought I saw one as a dark rod, moving in jagged animation through a patch of shade and shifting light. Somehow the Cambrian elder was like a centipede, in its general shape. They were intricate and with a hundred different limbs and their faces somehow evoked an image of all-teeth, the kind that snack on trilobites. I knew their intelligence too, an angry and ancient species, waiting for their world to return to their endless hands. It was just my imagination, but it was also reality. Folk Of the Shaded Places could travel instantly from one dark corner, into a dream, through a wall and back into another shadow. To see them in any capacity, always occurs as a partial glimpse, easy to ignore.
"What to they want?" Dini Ghanat was perplexed. He used a simple charm to look and try to see them magically. "I'd like to know them better."
"No, you wouldn't. Trust me." I assured the mad alchemist and disgraced scientist that stared after the spy from the darkness.
The spies in the darkness were gone, I could sense that they had left us.
"Daddy!" Came the voices of Persephone Briar and Penelope Leidenfrost, my daughters. They came running out to greet me.
"I knew you were coming. I've watched all of your flights." Penelope told me. Her heterochromic eyes were the most beautiful in the whole world. She blinked as she spoke to me for the first time in her life.
"Daddy, you're back. Sister told me you were here." Persephone told me.
I stared at her, unbelieving how she had grown. My mind flashed to the rampage of the giant horse, death, gemstones, all of it to serve the cats so that she would live. I had always loved her, even when she was not alive, at the beginning.
I hugged them both.
"Such a sweet reunion." Samual Monica commented. There was always a strange hint in his voice. Part of me was not happy to let him near my family, but also, he was family now too.
Then I looked up and saw the love of my life, after being away for so long. She stood there, every aspect of her was dark, as she stood in the shaft of light from her home. A fairy flitted from her shoulder back to the sanctuary of indoors.
"Heidi?" I stared and stood and trembled. My legs forgot their strength when I tried to walk towards her. Clide and Christo were there to hold me up.
"I can walk." I said softly and I did. I walked to Dr. Leidenfrost.
"Welcome home, Lord." Dr. Leidenfrost stared at me. I wondered if she still loved me too. I noticed Isidore approaching me. She hugged me and then stepped back next to Dr. Leidenfrost.
"Who are all of these people?" Dr. Leidenfrost asked me.
"These people are my new family members." I told her.
"A gang of murderers that have escaped from Dellfriar with you?" Dr. Leidenfrost asked strangely.
"Well - I mean -when you put it in that way." I argued against her wording.
"I've missed you so much!" Dr. Leidenfrost nearly jumped me in the parking lot.
"You all have to stay out here." Isidore told the escaped insane asylum patients. "Girls, come inside, now."
And our daughters obeyed and I went inside with my family and Cory flew on in ahead of me and landed on the back of the couch.
"Right now." Dr. Leidenfrost wanted to rekindle our marriage immediately. I went with her and did so. When we were rekindled we found it was almost morning already.
"Your friends are keeping quiet out there." Isidore told me, over breakfast.
"What is going on? You're the only people we've seen." I ate.
"There's a massive evacuation going on." Dr. Leidenfrost explained. "But Agent Saint called and told us to stay right here. She said it would be safe until she gets here."
"Why?" I asked.
"Supposedly there is to be a tsunami. That was more than two days ago." Dr. Leidenfrost nodded sagely. "It was all a lie."
"I see." I gulped. "We gotta feed them. No low blood sugar for our crazy people."
"I already fed them. I didn't want to stay in the apartment while you two, you know." Isidore blushed.
"Did you want some of him? He's still yours too." Dr. Leidenfrost teased her.
"Stop, Heidi." Isidore looked at me and our eyes met briefly. I wondered if she had ever loved me. It didn't matter, she loved me as a friend, which was fair enough. I hadn't felt particularly crazy about her, after-all.
Dr. Leidenfrost watched our gazes repulse each other like opposing magnets and made a clicking sound with her tongue. Cory appreciated the word and translated, hopping up and down with excitement:
"My Matron calls you both cowards!" Cory exclaimed in English.
"You are both cowards." Dr. Leidenfrost confirmed. "That's why I am the head of this family."
"Fair enough." I muttered. Isidore said nothing.
"I don't agree." The soft and melodious voice of our resident fairy spoke up. "Lord has shown courage when he fears for another's sake. I've seen him stand against wrongdoing with no guarantee he could survive."
I looked over and spotted Silver Bell alight upon Dr. Leidenfrost's shoulder. I smiled and greeted her:
"Hello Sylvia." I recalled her earthbound name and used it instead of her Faerie name.
"I've waited a long time to go home." Silver Bell was glowing. "Penelope has drawn my key, but she is not strong enough to conjure. She needs her father for that."
"What?" I asked.
"You stole the way for such a key to be crafted. In Faerie, it was your theft that removed the one who would have touched the gold to craft it into what we needed. No new key can be made, without the hand of a smith. Do you remember?" Silver Bell explained. In her voice she sounded tired, there was no resentment.
"I rescued a child from your queen." I recalled. "Is that the consequence?"
"There is a horror upon your world. If we do not reverse the ways of magic, Man will fall. Nothing good will rise in your place. I have learned of all these things while trapped in your realm. I must report to my queen that Faerie cannot stand and do nothing or we will be obliterated next. What happens to one part of the body affects the whole." Silver Bell spoke slowly and we all listened.
"What horror?" Dr. Leidenfrost asked, her voice hushed.
"Lord knows of it. That is why I know he will help me. Your daughter has drawn my key. Now her father will forge it for me. It must be done." Silver Bell demanded.
Dr. Leidenfrost stood up and went to her desk. She opened a drawer that contained a stack of drawings made by the girls that hadn't made it to the gallery on the refrigerator.
After a silent shuffling she found a drawing of a key. She stared at it and then her eyes watered. She hadn't known what it was.
I got up and walked over to her and said quietly:
"She is like me. She is also like you."
"I know Lord, that's what scares me."
2023.06.09 23:31 future--perfect Homes are now houses, and houses are now businesses. (my rant)
In my opinion house prices won't ever decrease in Vancouver or Toronto. Houses are being treated like businesses. Small, single-family homes are being torn down and replaced with larger houses containing multiple suites.
When people buy a house, they count on the income from these suites. The result? Rents won't decrease either. Homeowners pass on any increased costs, like higher interest rates, to their renters.
The Lower Mainland is heading towards a system divided between those who have land and those who dont.
It's a sad truth we have to face.
Also if you're okay with living in an apartment, you might have noticed something. The new apartments are becoming smaller, and the quality is going downhill. I don't mean to sound too negative, but when I visited my friend's place, it felt like a human cage. It didnt feel cozy or like a home but rather a cage for excess humans. I don't want to make it sound worse than it is, but that's how many of these new apartments feel. Again apologies if its too negative, but all this talk about house prices seem futile. its now about business and capitalism.
submitted by future--perfect to vancouver [link] [comments]
When people buy a house, they count on the income from these suites. The result? Rents won't decrease either. Homeowners pass on any increased costs, like higher interest rates, to their renters.
The Lower Mainland is heading towards a system divided between those who have land and those who dont.
It's a sad truth we have to face.
Also if you're okay with living in an apartment, you might have noticed something. The new apartments are becoming smaller, and the quality is going downhill. I don't mean to sound too negative, but when I visited my friend's place, it felt like a human cage. It didnt feel cozy or like a home but rather a cage for excess humans. I don't want to make it sound worse than it is, but that's how many of these new apartments feel. Again apologies if its too negative, but all this talk about house prices seem futile. its now about business and capitalism.
2023.06.09 23:31 Killer0nTheRoad Picked up Weird Al's first album today
 | This is stupid rare, there's a whole Wikipedia page for this album, the story goes: in 1981 Al borrowed money from Dr. Demento to fund the pressing of 1000 copies of this record, it was then distributed to LA area record stores and sold on consignment, and now 42 years later who knows how many are left, the last two sold on eBay for around $500. submitted by Killer0nTheRoad to vinyl [link] [comments] |
2023.06.09 23:30 AmmiOfficial R5 3600 (non-X): Best value GPU on PCIE 3?
Posted this on another subreddit, but posting one here as well:
So, its very simple. I have a Gigabyte Aorus Wifi ITX mobo,(B450) which has one PCIE 3 x16 slot. Looking for a GPU which will not be bottlenecked too much by the CPU.The obvious choice is 6700 or 6700XT the XT is actually cheaper ($409) and more available. I could also go for a 3060Ti (8GB), it has a wider bus at 256bit vs 192 bit on 6700XT, which would be better utilized by pcie 3. 6650 XT and lower has only 8x pcie, so that would tax me by a huge amount on pcie 3. In fact, I should not consider a single gpu that does not have full 16 pcie lanes, bandwidth can be a serious bottleneck with PCIE 4 GPUs on PCIE 3 chipsets.
What's shite with 3060Ti is the low 8GB VRAM, the 6700XT has 12GB, and therefore more future proof (as I will go with the setup for the next 3 years or so). My motherboard also supports resizable BAR (Gigabyte takes BIOS seriously).
I also have another criteria, and that is that the GPU must be a true 2 slot due to my thermaltake core v1 case is. So if 6700XT, it has to be a Powercolor Fighter (only true 2 slot card). 4070 (apart from the founders edition or the ZOTAC) are often 2.2 or 2.56 slot, so a no go for my case - and they will be bottlenecked by the R5 3600.
I could buy a R7 5700X, which is $218, but I don't know if it is worth the cost. A 5800X3D is $363, and in both cases, I would need a new cooler (Noctua NH-U12S which fits the case); another $72.Next time I upgrade, everything is swapped out , passing my current build to my youngest son.
Got a 60Hz 4k screen with great color representation, so I plan on doing an fps cap at 60 fps to keep the gpu as cool as possible. Resolution will be 1440p or 4k: I am one of those who like to tweak quality settings to yield the best balance between performance and visuals, certain settings honestly gives too little visual fidelity compared to how taxing they are on the performance...people now days just go ULTRA everything which is just plain stupid imo.
So, given PCIE 3 x16 and R5 3600, am I right that I should go 6700XT ($409), or should I also then go for a R7 5700X, which will also require a new cooler which it will benefit from?
Looking forward to this discussion, my work collegue and I wasted 3 hours at work today discussing it lol.
And if you are wondering about these steep prices in USD, it is because I live in Norway and our currency is shit because our politicians are brain dead!
submitted by AmmiOfficial to buildapc [link] [comments]
So, its very simple. I have a Gigabyte Aorus Wifi ITX mobo,(B450) which has one PCIE 3 x16 slot. Looking for a GPU which will not be bottlenecked too much by the CPU.The obvious choice is 6700 or 6700XT the XT is actually cheaper ($409) and more available. I could also go for a 3060Ti (8GB), it has a wider bus at 256bit vs 192 bit on 6700XT, which would be better utilized by pcie 3. 6650 XT and lower has only 8x pcie, so that would tax me by a huge amount on pcie 3. In fact, I should not consider a single gpu that does not have full 16 pcie lanes, bandwidth can be a serious bottleneck with PCIE 4 GPUs on PCIE 3 chipsets.
What's shite with 3060Ti is the low 8GB VRAM, the 6700XT has 12GB, and therefore more future proof (as I will go with the setup for the next 3 years or so). My motherboard also supports resizable BAR (Gigabyte takes BIOS seriously).
I also have another criteria, and that is that the GPU must be a true 2 slot due to my thermaltake core v1 case is. So if 6700XT, it has to be a Powercolor Fighter (only true 2 slot card). 4070 (apart from the founders edition or the ZOTAC) are often 2.2 or 2.56 slot, so a no go for my case - and they will be bottlenecked by the R5 3600.
I could buy a R7 5700X, which is $218, but I don't know if it is worth the cost. A 5800X3D is $363, and in both cases, I would need a new cooler (Noctua NH-U12S which fits the case); another $72.Next time I upgrade, everything is swapped out , passing my current build to my youngest son.
Got a 60Hz 4k screen with great color representation, so I plan on doing an fps cap at 60 fps to keep the gpu as cool as possible. Resolution will be 1440p or 4k: I am one of those who like to tweak quality settings to yield the best balance between performance and visuals, certain settings honestly gives too little visual fidelity compared to how taxing they are on the performance...people now days just go ULTRA everything which is just plain stupid imo.
So, given PCIE 3 x16 and R5 3600, am I right that I should go 6700XT ($409), or should I also then go for a R7 5700X, which will also require a new cooler which it will benefit from?
Looking forward to this discussion, my work collegue and I wasted 3 hours at work today discussing it lol.
And if you are wondering about these steep prices in USD, it is because I live in Norway and our currency is shit because our politicians are brain dead!
2023.06.09 23:30 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarketForums! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023.
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead StockMarketForums. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to StockMarketForums [link] [comments]
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023.
S&P 500 notches fourth straight positive week, touches highest level since August: Live updates - (Source)
The S&P 500 rose slightly Friday, touching the 4,300 level for the first time since August 2022 as investors looked ahead to upcoming inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s latest policy announcement.
The broad-market index gained 0.11%, closing at 4,298.86. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.16% to end at 13,259.14. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 43.17 points, or 0.13%, closing at 33,876.78. It was the 30-stock Dow’s fourth consecutive positive day.
For the week, the S&P 500 was up 0.39%. This was the broad-market index’s fourth straight winning week — a feat it last accomplished in August. The Nasdaq was up about 0.14%, posting its seventh straight winning week — its first streak of that length since November 2019. The Dow advanced 0.34%.
Investors were encouraged by signs that a broader swath of stocks, including small-cap equities, was participating in the recent rally. The Russell 2000 was down slightly on the day, but notched a weekly gain of 1.9%.
“It’s the first time in a while where investors seem to be feeling a greater sense of certainty. And we think that’s been a turning point from what had been more of a bearish cautious sentiment,” said Greg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments.
“We think that as we walk through these next few weeks, that will be increasingly clear that the economy is more resilient than folks have given it credit for the last six months,” said Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments. “That will sort of dawn on people that small-caps and cyclicals probably have a reasonable shot to play catch up.”
The market is also looking toward next week’s consumer price index numbers and the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Markets are currently anticipating a more than 71% probability the central bank will pause on rate hikes at the June meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
S&P Sectors for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
June’s Quad Witching Options Expiration Riddled With Volatility
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The second Triple Witching Week (Quadruple Witching if you prefer) of the year brings on some volatile trading with losses frequently exceeding gains. NASDAQ has the weakest record on the first trading day of the week. Triple-Witching Friday is usually better, S&P 500 has been up 12 of the last 20 years, but down 6 of the last 8.
Full-week performance is choppy as well, littered with greater than 1% moves in both directions. The week after June’s Triple-Witching Day is horrendous. This week has experienced DJIA losses in 27 of the last 33 years with an average performance of –0.81%. S&P 500 and NASDAQ have fared better during the week after over the same 33-year span. S&P 500’s averaged –0.46%. NASDAQ has averaged +0.03%. 2022’s sizable gains during the week after improve historical average performance notably.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
A New Bull Market: What’s Driving It?
The S&P 500 finally closed 20% above its October 12th (2022) closing low. This puts the index in “official” bull market territory.
Of course, if you had been reading or listening to Ryan on our Facts vs Feelings podcast, you’d have heard him say that October 12th was the low. He actually wrote a piece titled “Why Stocks Likely Just Bottomed” on October 19th!
The S&P 500 Index fell 25% from its peak on January 3rd, 2022 through October 12th. The subsequent 20% gain still puts it 10% below the prior peak. This does get to “math of volatility”. The index would need to gain 33% from its low to regain that level. This is a reason why it’s always better to lose less, is because you need to gain less to get back to even.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
So, what’s next? The good news is that future returns are strong. In his latest piece, Ryan wrote that out of 13 times when stocks rose 20% off a 52-week low, 10 of those times the lows were not violated. The average return 12 months later was close to 18%. The only time we didn’t see a gain was in the 2001-2002 bear market.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
** Digging into the return drivers**
It’s interesting to look at what’s been driving returns over the past year. This can help us think about what may lie ahead. The question was prompted by our friend, Sam Ro’s latest piece on the bull market breakout. He wrote that earnings haven’t been as bad as expected. More importantly, prospects have actually been improving.
The chart below shows earnings expectations for the S&P 500 over the next 12 months. You can see how it rose in the first half of 2022, before collapsing over the second half of the year. The collapse continued into January of this year. But since then, earnings expectations have steadily risen. In fact, they’ve accelerated higher since mid-April, after the last earnings season started. Currently, they’re higher than where we started the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Backing up a bit: we can break apart the price return of a stock (or index) into two components:
I decomposed annual S&P 500 returns from 2020 – 2023 (through June 8th) into these two components. The chart below shows how these added up to the total return for each year. It also includes:
- Earnings growth
- Valuation multiple growth
- The bear market pullback from January 3rd, 2022, through October 12th, 2022
- And the 20% rally from the low through June 8th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
You can see how multiple changes have dominated the swing in returns.
The notable exception is 2021, when the S&P 500 return was propelled by earnings growth. In contrast, the 2022 pullback was entirely attributed to multiple contraction. Earnings made a positive contribution in 2022.
Now, multiple contraction is not surprising given the rapid change in rates, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) looked to get on top of inflation. However, they are close to the end of rate hikes, and so that’s no longer a big drag on multiples.
Consequently, multiple growth has pulled the index higher this year. You can see how multiple contraction basically drove the pullback in the Index during the bear market, through the low. But since then, multiples have expanded, pretty much driving the 20% gain.
Here’s a more dynamic picture of the S&P 500’s cumulative price return action from January 3rd, 2022, through June 8th, 2023. The chart also shows the contribution from earnings and multiple growth. As you can see, earnings have been fairly steady, rising 4% over the entire period. However, the swing in multiples is what drove the price return volatility.
Multiples contracted by 14%, and when combined with 4% earnings growth, you experienced the index return of -10%.
What next?
As I pointed out above, the problem for stocks last year was multiple contraction, which was driven by a rapid surge in interest rates.
The good news is that we’re probably close to end of rate hikes. The Fed may go ahead with just one more rate hike (in July), which is not much within the context of the 5%-point increase in rates that they implemented over the past year.
Our view is that rates are likely to remain where they are for a while. But rates are unlikely to rise from 5% to 10%, or even 7%, unless we get another major inflation shock.
This means a major obstacle that hindered stocks last year is dissipating. The removal of this headwind is yet another positive factor for stocks as we look ahead into the second half of the year.
Why Low Volatility Isn’t Bearish
“There is no such thing as average when it comes to the stock market or investing.” -Ryan Detrick
You might have heard by now, but the CBOE Volatility Index (better known as the VIX) made a new 52-week low earlier this week and closed beneath 14 for the first time in more than three years. This has many in the financial media clamoring that ‘the VIX is low and this is bearish’.
They have been telling us (incorrectly) that only five stocks have been going up and this was bearish, that a recession was right around the corner, that the yield curve being inverted was bearish, that M2 money supply YoY tanking was bearish, and now we have the VIX being low is bearish. We’ve disagreed with all of these worries and now we take issue with a low VIX as being bearish.
What exactly is the VIX you ask? I’d suggest reading this summary from Investopedia for a full explanation, but it is simply how much option players are willing to pay up for potential volatility over the coming 30 days. If they sense volatility, they will pay up for insurance. What you might know is that when the VIX is high (say above 30), that means the market tends to be more volatile and likely in a bearish phase. Versus a low VIX (say sub 15) historically has lead to some really nice bull markets and small amounts of volatility.
Back to your regularly scheduled blog now.
The last time the VIX went this long above 14 was for more than five years, ending in August 2012. You know what happened next that time? The S&P 500 added more than 18% the following 12 months. Yes, this is a sample size of one, but I think it shows that a VIX sub 14 by itself isn’t the end of the world.
One of the key concepts around volatility is trends can last for years. What I mean by this is for years the VIX can be high and for years it can be low. Since 1990, the average VIX was 19.7, but it rarely trades around that average. Take another look at the quote I’ve used many times above, as averages aren’t so average. This chart is one I’ve used for years now and I think we could be on the cusp of another low volatility regime. The red areas are times the VIX was consistently above 20, while the yellow were beneath 20. What you also need to know is those red periods usually took place during bear markets and very volatile markets, while the yellow periods were hallmarked by low volatility and higher equity prices. Are we about to enter a new period of lower volatility? No one of course knows, but if this is about to happen (which is my vote), it is another reason to think that higher equity prices (our base case as we remain overweight equities in our Carson House Views) will be coming.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lastly, I’ll leave you on this potentially bullish point. We like to use relative ratios to get a feel for how one asset is going versus to another. We always want to be in assets or sectors that are showing relative strength, while avoiding areas that are weak.
Well, stocks just broke out to new highs relative to bonds once again. After a period of consolidation during the bear market last year, now we have stocks firmly in the driver seat relative to bonds. This is another reason we remain overweight stocks currently and continue to expect stocks to do better than bonds going forward.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Our Leading Economic Index Says the Economy is Not in a Recession
We’ve been writing since the end of last year about how we believe the economy can avoid a recession in 2023, including in our 2023 outlook. This has run contrary to most other economists’ predictions. Interestingly, the tide has been shifting recently, as we’ve gotten a string of relatively stronger economic data. More so after the latest payrolls data, which surprised again.
One challenge with economic data is that we get so many of them, and a lot of times they can send conflicting signals. It can be hard to parse through all of it and come up with an updated view of the economy after every data release.
One approach is to combine these into a single indicator, i.e. a “leading economic index” (LEI). It’s “leading” because the idea is to give you an early warning signal about economic turning points.
Simply put, it tells you what the economy is doing today and what it is likely to do in the near future.
The most popular LEI points to recession
One of the most widely used LEI’s is released by the Conference Board, and it currently points to recession. As you can see in the chart below, the Conference Board’s LEI is highly correlated with GDP growth – the chart shows year-over-year change in both.
You can see how the index started to fall ahead of the 2001 and 2008 recession (shaded areas). The 2020 pandemic recession was an anomaly since it hit so suddenly. In any case, using an LEI means we didn’t have to wait for GDP data (which are released well after a quarter ends) to tell us whether the economy was close to, or in a recession.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As you probably noticed above, the LEI is down 8% year-over-year, signaling a recession over the next 12 months. It’s been pointing to a recession since last fall, with the index declining for 13 straight months through April.
Quoting the Conference Board:
“The Conference Board forecasts a contraction of economic activity starting in Q2 leading to a mild recession by mid-2023.”
Safe to say, we’re close to mid-2023 and there’s no sign of a recession yet.
What’s inside the LEI
The Conference Board’s LEI has 10 components of which,
You can see how these indicators have pulled the index down by 4.4% over the past 6 months, and by -0.6% in April alone.
- 3 are financial market indicators, including the S&P 500, and make up 22% of the index
- 4 measure business and manufacturing activity (44%)
- 1 measures housing activity (3%)
- 2 are related to the consumer, including the labor market (31%)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s the thing. This popular LEI is premised on the fact that the manufacturing sector, and business activity/sentiment, is a leading indicator of the economy. This worked well in the past but is probably not indicative of what’s happening in the economy right now. For one thing, the manufacturing sector makes up just about 11% of GDP.
Consumption makes up 68% of the economy, and we believe it’s important to capture that.
In fact, consumption was strong in Q1 and even at the start of Q2, thanks to rising real incomes. Housing is also making a turnaround and should no longer be a drag on the economy going forward (as it has been over the past 8 quarters). The Federal Reserve (Fed) is also close to being done with rate hikes. Plus, as my colleague, Ryan Detrick pointed out, the stock market’s turned around and is close to entering a new bull market.
Obviously, there are a lot of data points that we look at and one way we parse through all of it is by constructing our own leading economic index.
An LEI that better reflects the US economy
We believe our proprietary LEI better captures the dynamics of the US economy. It was developed a decade ago and is a key input into our asset allocation decisions.
In contrast to the Conference Board’s measure, it includes 20+ components, including,
Just as an example, the consumer-related data includes unemployment benefit claims, weekly hours worked, and vehicle sales. Housing includes indicators like building permits and new home sales.
- Consumer-related indicators (make up 50% of the index)
- Housing activity (18%)
- Business and manufacturing activity (23%)
- Financial markets (9%)
The chart below shows how our LEI has moved through time – capturing whether the economy is growing below trend, on-trend (a value close to zero), or above trend. Like the Conference Board’s measure, it is able to capture major turning points in the business cycle. It declined ahead of the actual start of the 2011 and 2008 recessions.
As of April, our index is indicating that the economy is growing right along trend.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Last year, the index signaled that the economy was growing below trend, and that the risk of a recession was high.
Note that it didn’t point to an actual recession. Just that “risk” of one was higher than normal. In fact, our LEI held close to the lows we saw over the last decade, especially in 2011 and 2016 (after which the economy, and even the stock market, recovered).
The following chart captures a close-up view of the last 3 and half years, which includes the Covid pullback and subsequent recovery. The contribution from the 4 major categories is also shown. You can see how the consumer has remained strong over the past year – in fact, consumer indicators have been stronger this year than in late 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The main risk of a recession last year was due to the Fed raising rates as fast as they did, which adversely impacted housing, financial markets, and business activity.
The good news is that these sectors are improving even as consumer strength continues. The improvement in housing is notable. Additionally, the drag from financial conditions is beginning to ease as we think that the Federal Reserve gets closer to the end of rate hikes, and markets rally.
Putting the Puzzle Together
Another novel part of our approach is that we have an LEI like the one for the US for more than 25 other countries. Each one is custom built to capture the dynamics of those economies. The individual country LEIs are also subsequently rolled up to a global index to give us a picture of the global economy, as shown below.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
I want to emphasize that we do not rely solely on this as the one and only input into our asset allocation, portfolio and risk management decisions. While it is an important component that encapsulates a lot of significant information, it is just one piece of the puzzle. Our process also has other pillars such as policy (both monetary and fiscal), technical factors, and valuations.
We believe it’s important to put all these pieces together, kind of like putting together a puzzle, to understand what’s happening in the economy and markets, and position portfolios accordingly.
Putting together a puzzle is both a mechanistic and artistic process. The mechanistic aspect involves sorting the pieces, finding edges, and matching colors, etc. It requires a logical and methodical approach, and in our process the LEI is key to that.
However, there is an artistic element as well. As we assemble the pieces together, a larger picture gradually emerges. You can make creative decisions about how each piece fits within the overall picture. Within the context of portfolio management, that takes a diverse range of experience. Which is the core strength of our Investment Research Team.
Welcome to the New Bull Market
“If you torture numbers enough, they will tell you anything.” -Yogi Berra, Yankee great and Hall of Fame catcher
Don’t shoot the messenger, but historically, it is widely considered a new bull market once stocks are more than 20% off their bear market lows. This is similar to when stocks are down 20% they are in a bear market. Well, the S&P 500 is less than one percent away from this 20% threshold, so get ready to hear a lot about it when it eventually happens.
I’m not crazy about this concept, as we’ve been in the camp that the bear market ended in October for months now (we started to say it in late October, getting some really odd looks I might add), meaning a new bull market has been here for a while. Take another look at the great Yogi quote above, as someone can get whatever they want probably when talking about bear and bull markets.
None the less, what exactly does a 20% move higher off a bear market low really mean? The good news is future returns are quite strong.
We found 13 times that stocks soared at least 20% off a 52-week low and 10 times the lows were indeed in and not violated. The only times it didn’t work? Twice during the tech bubble implosion and once during the Financial Crisis. In other words, some of the truly worst times to be invested in stocks. But the other 10 times, once there was a 20% gain, the lows were in and in most cases, higher prices were soon coming. This chart does a nice job of showing this concept, with the red dots the times new lows were still yet to come after a 20% bounce.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s a table with all the breakdowns. A year later stocks were down only once and that was during the 2001/2002 bear market, with the average gain a year after a 20% bounce at a very impressive 17.7%. It is worth noting that the one- and three-month returns aren’t anything special, probably because some type of consolidation would be expected after surges higher, but six months and a year later are quite strong.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As we’ve been saying this full year, we continue to expect stocks to do well this year and the upward move is firmly in place and studies like this do little to change our opinion.
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 9th, 2023
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/11/23
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)($ADBE $ORCL $KR $ACB $ATEX $ITI $LEN $MPAA $JBL $ECX $POWW $HITI $MMMB $CGNT $WLY $RFIL)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
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Monday 6.12.23 Before Market Open:
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
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Monday 6.12.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.13.23 Before Market Open:
([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
Tuesday 6.13.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.14.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.14.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.15.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.15.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Friday 6.16.23 Before Market Open:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!]())
(NONE.)
Friday 6.16.23 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!
2023.06.09 23:30 argetaleaf one year since i started my houseplant journey! i have one window in this apartment but we make it work
 | i really adore calatheas if you can’t tell submitted by argetaleaf to houseplants [link] [comments] |
2023.06.09 23:29 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on StocksMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023.
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead StocksMarket. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to StocksMarket [link] [comments]
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023.
S&P 500 notches fourth straight positive week, touches highest level since August: Live updates - (Source)
The S&P 500 rose slightly Friday, touching the 4,300 level for the first time since August 2022 as investors looked ahead to upcoming inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s latest policy announcement.
The broad-market index gained 0.11%, closing at 4,298.86. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.16% to end at 13,259.14. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 43.17 points, or 0.13%, closing at 33,876.78. It was the 30-stock Dow’s fourth consecutive positive day.
For the week, the S&P 500 was up 0.39%. This was the broad-market index’s fourth straight winning week — a feat it last accomplished in August. The Nasdaq was up about 0.14%, posting its seventh straight winning week — its first streak of that length since November 2019. The Dow advanced 0.34%.
Investors were encouraged by signs that a broader swath of stocks, including small-cap equities, was participating in the recent rally. The Russell 2000 was down slightly on the day, but notched a weekly gain of 1.9%.
“It’s the first time in a while where investors seem to be feeling a greater sense of certainty. And we think that’s been a turning point from what had been more of a bearish cautious sentiment,” said Greg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments.
“We think that as we walk through these next few weeks, that will be increasingly clear that the economy is more resilient than folks have given it credit for the last six months,” said Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments. “That will sort of dawn on people that small-caps and cyclicals probably have a reasonable shot to play catch up.”
The market is also looking toward next week’s consumer price index numbers and the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Markets are currently anticipating a more than 71% probability the central bank will pause on rate hikes at the June meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
S&P Sectors for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
June’s Quad Witching Options Expiration Riddled With Volatility
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The second Triple Witching Week (Quadruple Witching if you prefer) of the year brings on some volatile trading with losses frequently exceeding gains. NASDAQ has the weakest record on the first trading day of the week. Triple-Witching Friday is usually better, S&P 500 has been up 12 of the last 20 years, but down 6 of the last 8.
Full-week performance is choppy as well, littered with greater than 1% moves in both directions. The week after June’s Triple-Witching Day is horrendous. This week has experienced DJIA losses in 27 of the last 33 years with an average performance of –0.81%. S&P 500 and NASDAQ have fared better during the week after over the same 33-year span. S&P 500’s averaged –0.46%. NASDAQ has averaged +0.03%. 2022’s sizable gains during the week after improve historical average performance notably.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
A New Bull Market: What’s Driving It?
The S&P 500 finally closed 20% above its October 12th (2022) closing low. This puts the index in “official” bull market territory.
Of course, if you had been reading or listening to Ryan on our Facts vs Feelings podcast, you’d have heard him say that October 12th was the low. He actually wrote a piece titled “Why Stocks Likely Just Bottomed” on October 19th!
The S&P 500 Index fell 25% from its peak on January 3rd, 2022 through October 12th. The subsequent 20% gain still puts it 10% below the prior peak. This does get to “math of volatility”. The index would need to gain 33% from its low to regain that level. This is a reason why it’s always better to lose less, is because you need to gain less to get back to even.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
So, what’s next? The good news is that future returns are strong. In his latest piece, Ryan wrote that out of 13 times when stocks rose 20% off a 52-week low, 10 of those times the lows were not violated. The average return 12 months later was close to 18%. The only time we didn’t see a gain was in the 2001-2002 bear market.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
** Digging into the return drivers**
It’s interesting to look at what’s been driving returns over the past year. This can help us think about what may lie ahead. The question was prompted by our friend, Sam Ro’s latest piece on the bull market breakout. He wrote that earnings haven’t been as bad as expected. More importantly, prospects have actually been improving.
The chart below shows earnings expectations for the S&P 500 over the next 12 months. You can see how it rose in the first half of 2022, before collapsing over the second half of the year. The collapse continued into January of this year. But since then, earnings expectations have steadily risen. In fact, they’ve accelerated higher since mid-April, after the last earnings season started. Currently, they’re higher than where we started the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Backing up a bit: we can break apart the price return of a stock (or index) into two components:
I decomposed annual S&P 500 returns from 2020 – 2023 (through June 8th) into these two components. The chart below shows how these added up to the total return for each year. It also includes:
- Earnings growth
- Valuation multiple growth
- The bear market pullback from January 3rd, 2022, through October 12th, 2022
- And the 20% rally from the low through June 8th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
You can see how multiple changes have dominated the swing in returns.
The notable exception is 2021, when the S&P 500 return was propelled by earnings growth. In contrast, the 2022 pullback was entirely attributed to multiple contraction. Earnings made a positive contribution in 2022.
Now, multiple contraction is not surprising given the rapid change in rates, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) looked to get on top of inflation. However, they are close to the end of rate hikes, and so that’s no longer a big drag on multiples.
Consequently, multiple growth has pulled the index higher this year. You can see how multiple contraction basically drove the pullback in the Index during the bear market, through the low. But since then, multiples have expanded, pretty much driving the 20% gain.
Here’s a more dynamic picture of the S&P 500’s cumulative price return action from January 3rd, 2022, through June 8th, 2023. The chart also shows the contribution from earnings and multiple growth. As you can see, earnings have been fairly steady, rising 4% over the entire period. However, the swing in multiples is what drove the price return volatility.
Multiples contracted by 14%, and when combined with 4% earnings growth, you experienced the index return of -10%.
What next?
As I pointed out above, the problem for stocks last year was multiple contraction, which was driven by a rapid surge in interest rates.
The good news is that we’re probably close to end of rate hikes. The Fed may go ahead with just one more rate hike (in July), which is not much within the context of the 5%-point increase in rates that they implemented over the past year.
Our view is that rates are likely to remain where they are for a while. But rates are unlikely to rise from 5% to 10%, or even 7%, unless we get another major inflation shock.
This means a major obstacle that hindered stocks last year is dissipating. The removal of this headwind is yet another positive factor for stocks as we look ahead into the second half of the year.
Why Low Volatility Isn’t Bearish
“There is no such thing as average when it comes to the stock market or investing.” -Ryan Detrick
You might have heard by now, but the CBOE Volatility Index (better known as the VIX) made a new 52-week low earlier this week and closed beneath 14 for the first time in more than three years. This has many in the financial media clamoring that ‘the VIX is low and this is bearish’.
They have been telling us (incorrectly) that only five stocks have been going up and this was bearish, that a recession was right around the corner, that the yield curve being inverted was bearish, that M2 money supply YoY tanking was bearish, and now we have the VIX being low is bearish. We’ve disagreed with all of these worries and now we take issue with a low VIX as being bearish.
What exactly is the VIX you ask? I’d suggest reading this summary from Investopedia for a full explanation, but it is simply how much option players are willing to pay up for potential volatility over the coming 30 days. If they sense volatility, they will pay up for insurance. What you might know is that when the VIX is high (say above 30), that means the market tends to be more volatile and likely in a bearish phase. Versus a low VIX (say sub 15) historically has lead to some really nice bull markets and small amounts of volatility.
Back to your regularly scheduled blog now.
The last time the VIX went this long above 14 was for more than five years, ending in August 2012. You know what happened next that time? The S&P 500 added more than 18% the following 12 months. Yes, this is a sample size of one, but I think it shows that a VIX sub 14 by itself isn’t the end of the world.
One of the key concepts around volatility is trends can last for years. What I mean by this is for years the VIX can be high and for years it can be low. Since 1990, the average VIX was 19.7, but it rarely trades around that average. Take another look at the quote I’ve used many times above, as averages aren’t so average. This chart is one I’ve used for years now and I think we could be on the cusp of another low volatility regime. The red areas are times the VIX was consistently above 20, while the yellow were beneath 20. What you also need to know is those red periods usually took place during bear markets and very volatile markets, while the yellow periods were hallmarked by low volatility and higher equity prices. Are we about to enter a new period of lower volatility? No one of course knows, but if this is about to happen (which is my vote), it is another reason to think that higher equity prices (our base case as we remain overweight equities in our Carson House Views) will be coming.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lastly, I’ll leave you on this potentially bullish point. We like to use relative ratios to get a feel for how one asset is going versus to another. We always want to be in assets or sectors that are showing relative strength, while avoiding areas that are weak.
Well, stocks just broke out to new highs relative to bonds once again. After a period of consolidation during the bear market last year, now we have stocks firmly in the driver seat relative to bonds. This is another reason we remain overweight stocks currently and continue to expect stocks to do better than bonds going forward.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Our Leading Economic Index Says the Economy is Not in a Recession
We’ve been writing since the end of last year about how we believe the economy can avoid a recession in 2023, including in our 2023 outlook. This has run contrary to most other economists’ predictions. Interestingly, the tide has been shifting recently, as we’ve gotten a string of relatively stronger economic data. More so after the latest payrolls data, which surprised again.
One challenge with economic data is that we get so many of them, and a lot of times they can send conflicting signals. It can be hard to parse through all of it and come up with an updated view of the economy after every data release.
One approach is to combine these into a single indicator, i.e. a “leading economic index” (LEI). It’s “leading” because the idea is to give you an early warning signal about economic turning points.
Simply put, it tells you what the economy is doing today and what it is likely to do in the near future.
The most popular LEI points to recession
One of the most widely used LEI’s is released by the Conference Board, and it currently points to recession. As you can see in the chart below, the Conference Board’s LEI is highly correlated with GDP growth – the chart shows year-over-year change in both.
You can see how the index started to fall ahead of the 2001 and 2008 recession (shaded areas). The 2020 pandemic recession was an anomaly since it hit so suddenly. In any case, using an LEI means we didn’t have to wait for GDP data (which are released well after a quarter ends) to tell us whether the economy was close to, or in a recession.
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As you probably noticed above, the LEI is down 8% year-over-year, signaling a recession over the next 12 months. It’s been pointing to a recession since last fall, with the index declining for 13 straight months through April.
Quoting the Conference Board:
“The Conference Board forecasts a contraction of economic activity starting in Q2 leading to a mild recession by mid-2023.”
Safe to say, we’re close to mid-2023 and there’s no sign of a recession yet.
What’s inside the LEI
The Conference Board’s LEI has 10 components of which,
You can see how these indicators have pulled the index down by 4.4% over the past 6 months, and by -0.6% in April alone.
- 3 are financial market indicators, including the S&P 500, and make up 22% of the index
- 4 measure business and manufacturing activity (44%)
- 1 measures housing activity (3%)
- 2 are related to the consumer, including the labor market (31%)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s the thing. This popular LEI is premised on the fact that the manufacturing sector, and business activity/sentiment, is a leading indicator of the economy. This worked well in the past but is probably not indicative of what’s happening in the economy right now. For one thing, the manufacturing sector makes up just about 11% of GDP.
Consumption makes up 68% of the economy, and we believe it’s important to capture that.
In fact, consumption was strong in Q1 and even at the start of Q2, thanks to rising real incomes. Housing is also making a turnaround and should no longer be a drag on the economy going forward (as it has been over the past 8 quarters). The Federal Reserve (Fed) is also close to being done with rate hikes. Plus, as my colleague, Ryan Detrick pointed out, the stock market’s turned around and is close to entering a new bull market.
Obviously, there are a lot of data points that we look at and one way we parse through all of it is by constructing our own leading economic index.
An LEI that better reflects the US economy
We believe our proprietary LEI better captures the dynamics of the US economy. It was developed a decade ago and is a key input into our asset allocation decisions.
In contrast to the Conference Board’s measure, it includes 20+ components, including,
Just as an example, the consumer-related data includes unemployment benefit claims, weekly hours worked, and vehicle sales. Housing includes indicators like building permits and new home sales.
- Consumer-related indicators (make up 50% of the index)
- Housing activity (18%)
- Business and manufacturing activity (23%)
- Financial markets (9%)
The chart below shows how our LEI has moved through time – capturing whether the economy is growing below trend, on-trend (a value close to zero), or above trend. Like the Conference Board’s measure, it is able to capture major turning points in the business cycle. It declined ahead of the actual start of the 2011 and 2008 recessions.
As of April, our index is indicating that the economy is growing right along trend.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Last year, the index signaled that the economy was growing below trend, and that the risk of a recession was high.
Note that it didn’t point to an actual recession. Just that “risk” of one was higher than normal. In fact, our LEI held close to the lows we saw over the last decade, especially in 2011 and 2016 (after which the economy, and even the stock market, recovered).
The following chart captures a close-up view of the last 3 and half years, which includes the Covid pullback and subsequent recovery. The contribution from the 4 major categories is also shown. You can see how the consumer has remained strong over the past year – in fact, consumer indicators have been stronger this year than in late 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The main risk of a recession last year was due to the Fed raising rates as fast as they did, which adversely impacted housing, financial markets, and business activity.
The good news is that these sectors are improving even as consumer strength continues. The improvement in housing is notable. Additionally, the drag from financial conditions is beginning to ease as we think that the Federal Reserve gets closer to the end of rate hikes, and markets rally.
Putting the Puzzle Together
Another novel part of our approach is that we have an LEI like the one for the US for more than 25 other countries. Each one is custom built to capture the dynamics of those economies. The individual country LEIs are also subsequently rolled up to a global index to give us a picture of the global economy, as shown below.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
I want to emphasize that we do not rely solely on this as the one and only input into our asset allocation, portfolio and risk management decisions. While it is an important component that encapsulates a lot of significant information, it is just one piece of the puzzle. Our process also has other pillars such as policy (both monetary and fiscal), technical factors, and valuations.
We believe it’s important to put all these pieces together, kind of like putting together a puzzle, to understand what’s happening in the economy and markets, and position portfolios accordingly.
Putting together a puzzle is both a mechanistic and artistic process. The mechanistic aspect involves sorting the pieces, finding edges, and matching colors, etc. It requires a logical and methodical approach, and in our process the LEI is key to that.
However, there is an artistic element as well. As we assemble the pieces together, a larger picture gradually emerges. You can make creative decisions about how each piece fits within the overall picture. Within the context of portfolio management, that takes a diverse range of experience. Which is the core strength of our Investment Research Team.
Welcome to the New Bull Market
“If you torture numbers enough, they will tell you anything.” -Yogi Berra, Yankee great and Hall of Fame catcher
Don’t shoot the messenger, but historically, it is widely considered a new bull market once stocks are more than 20% off their bear market lows. This is similar to when stocks are down 20% they are in a bear market. Well, the S&P 500 is less than one percent away from this 20% threshold, so get ready to hear a lot about it when it eventually happens.
I’m not crazy about this concept, as we’ve been in the camp that the bear market ended in October for months now (we started to say it in late October, getting some really odd looks I might add), meaning a new bull market has been here for a while. Take another look at the great Yogi quote above, as someone can get whatever they want probably when talking about bear and bull markets.
None the less, what exactly does a 20% move higher off a bear market low really mean? The good news is future returns are quite strong.
We found 13 times that stocks soared at least 20% off a 52-week low and 10 times the lows were indeed in and not violated. The only times it didn’t work? Twice during the tech bubble implosion and once during the Financial Crisis. In other words, some of the truly worst times to be invested in stocks. But the other 10 times, once there was a 20% gain, the lows were in and in most cases, higher prices were soon coming. This chart does a nice job of showing this concept, with the red dots the times new lows were still yet to come after a 20% bounce.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s a table with all the breakdowns. A year later stocks were down only once and that was during the 2001/2002 bear market, with the average gain a year after a 20% bounce at a very impressive 17.7%. It is worth noting that the one- and three-month returns aren’t anything special, probably because some type of consolidation would be expected after surges higher, but six months and a year later are quite strong.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As we’ve been saying this full year, we continue to expect stocks to do well this year and the upward move is firmly in place and studies like this do little to change our opinion.
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 9th, 2023
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/11/23
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)($ADBE $ORCL $KR $ACB $ATEX $ITI $LEN $MPAA $JBL $ECX $POWW $HITI $MMMB $CGNT $WLY $RFIL)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
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Monday 6.12.23 Before Market Open:
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
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Monday 6.12.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.13.23 Before Market Open:
([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
Tuesday 6.13.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.14.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.14.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.15.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.15.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Friday 6.16.23 Before Market Open:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!]())
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Friday 6.16.23 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
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(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
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DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!
2023.06.09 23:29 schmangosteen Injury Liability at Gym
Hello,
I got my finger pinched while using a gym equipment and I had an after-hour ER visit due to heavy and ceaseless bleeding. The instrument (power rack safety rod) was very bent and required significant amount of force to squeak its way in and out of the holes. In an attempt to adjust the safety rod, the rod rushed through the hole and ripped my finger flesh apart.
I am a student at Virginia and don’t want or plan to escalate this into any substantial legal action, but I wonder what my chance is to receive any sort of compensation for my ER visit, hopefully in a cordial manner. Thank you for your time and advice in advance.
submitted by schmangosteen to legaladvice [link] [comments]
I got my finger pinched while using a gym equipment and I had an after-hour ER visit due to heavy and ceaseless bleeding. The instrument (power rack safety rod) was very bent and required significant amount of force to squeak its way in and out of the holes. In an attempt to adjust the safety rod, the rod rushed through the hole and ripped my finger flesh apart.
I am a student at Virginia and don’t want or plan to escalate this into any substantial legal action, but I wonder what my chance is to receive any sort of compensation for my ER visit, hopefully in a cordial manner. Thank you for your time and advice in advance.
2023.06.09 23:29 Reina-Lovegood-9810 Does my bf have PTSD or just hates me?
About month ago my bf of 4 years was driving in a car with a friend, his friend was the one driving. They hit a man who just ran in front of the car and he was severely injured and my bf was the one who gave him first aid. Medics that came to the scene said that he actually saved his life bcs the guy was almost dead and would not make it without first aid. After that, my bf became very... different. At first he was jumpy and constantly on the edge, he wasnt sleeping or eating and he actually got sick. It does not help that he had already been feeling low for a couple of weeks bcs of some things in our relationship. He was isolating himself, drinking and smoking every night which was not typical of him and burying himself in work. He was not sharing any of this with me bcs i was going through hard time myself with my mom who was very sick, but this event seemed to push him over the edge. One night he just bursted and told me everything that was ever bothering him about me and our relationship and said we would break up if things dont change. I realised how wrong i was and that he is right so in about 2 weeks i changed everything. He was glad about it but thats it. What is bothering me now is that he is a completely different guy, he is different towards me, his family, friends, everyone. It feels like he is just a shell of a person he was before, he is super cold and distant. However, when we spend time together, "old" him comes through, the emotional, warm, happy, in love him. But when we are apart he is super cold and it seems like he does not care about me or anything really. I know he does and he does love me, so i am wondering could this be some kind of ptsd symtom? Or just him trying to process and get over everything that happened with that guy and us as well? How do i help him or support him? I have to say he has the tendacy to depression and generally has not the best mental health and i am constantly asking how can i help or assist him, but he says that i already did what was needed and there is nothing more i can do, he just needs time and then MAYBE things will be like they used to. Also he blames me a lot and says I destroyed him and that he lost sense of himself and purpose after everything that happened with us and that accident I mentioned, and also that he "likes who he is now and old him is dead and he is never going to change/go back"
submitted by Reina-Lovegood-9810 to relationshipproblems [link] [comments]
2023.06.09 23:29 No_Broccoli4961 Fall Semester Housing
Hey y’all, I’m subleasing a 4 bed 4 bath apartment at Gateway for next year. The lease starts in August and is $800 a month. The apartment is fully furnished with a private bath and shared kitchen/living. Let me know if your interested. Males only please.
submitted by No_Broccoli4961 to UniversityOfHouston [link] [comments]
2023.06.09 23:29 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on EarningsWhispers! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023.
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead EarningsWhispers. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to EarningsWhispers [link] [comments]
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023.
S&P 500 notches fourth straight positive week, touches highest level since August: Live updates - (Source)
The S&P 500 rose slightly Friday, touching the 4,300 level for the first time since August 2022 as investors looked ahead to upcoming inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s latest policy announcement.
The broad-market index gained 0.11%, closing at 4,298.86. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.16% to end at 13,259.14. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 43.17 points, or 0.13%, closing at 33,876.78. It was the 30-stock Dow’s fourth consecutive positive day.
For the week, the S&P 500 was up 0.39%. This was the broad-market index’s fourth straight winning week — a feat it last accomplished in August. The Nasdaq was up about 0.14%, posting its seventh straight winning week — its first streak of that length since November 2019. The Dow advanced 0.34%.
Investors were encouraged by signs that a broader swath of stocks, including small-cap equities, was participating in the recent rally. The Russell 2000 was down slightly on the day, but notched a weekly gain of 1.9%.
“It’s the first time in a while where investors seem to be feeling a greater sense of certainty. And we think that’s been a turning point from what had been more of a bearish cautious sentiment,” said Greg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments.
“We think that as we walk through these next few weeks, that will be increasingly clear that the economy is more resilient than folks have given it credit for the last six months,” said Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments. “That will sort of dawn on people that small-caps and cyclicals probably have a reasonable shot to play catch up.”
The market is also looking toward next week’s consumer price index numbers and the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Markets are currently anticipating a more than 71% probability the central bank will pause on rate hikes at the June meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
S&P Sectors for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
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Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
June’s Quad Witching Options Expiration Riddled With Volatility
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The second Triple Witching Week (Quadruple Witching if you prefer) of the year brings on some volatile trading with losses frequently exceeding gains. NASDAQ has the weakest record on the first trading day of the week. Triple-Witching Friday is usually better, S&P 500 has been up 12 of the last 20 years, but down 6 of the last 8.
Full-week performance is choppy as well, littered with greater than 1% moves in both directions. The week after June’s Triple-Witching Day is horrendous. This week has experienced DJIA losses in 27 of the last 33 years with an average performance of –0.81%. S&P 500 and NASDAQ have fared better during the week after over the same 33-year span. S&P 500’s averaged –0.46%. NASDAQ has averaged +0.03%. 2022’s sizable gains during the week after improve historical average performance notably.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
A New Bull Market: What’s Driving It?
The S&P 500 finally closed 20% above its October 12th (2022) closing low. This puts the index in “official” bull market territory.
Of course, if you had been reading or listening to Ryan on our Facts vs Feelings podcast, you’d have heard him say that October 12th was the low. He actually wrote a piece titled “Why Stocks Likely Just Bottomed” on October 19th!
The S&P 500 Index fell 25% from its peak on January 3rd, 2022 through October 12th. The subsequent 20% gain still puts it 10% below the prior peak. This does get to “math of volatility”. The index would need to gain 33% from its low to regain that level. This is a reason why it’s always better to lose less, is because you need to gain less to get back to even.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
So, what’s next? The good news is that future returns are strong. In his latest piece, Ryan wrote that out of 13 times when stocks rose 20% off a 52-week low, 10 of those times the lows were not violated. The average return 12 months later was close to 18%. The only time we didn’t see a gain was in the 2001-2002 bear market.
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** Digging into the return drivers**
It’s interesting to look at what’s been driving returns over the past year. This can help us think about what may lie ahead. The question was prompted by our friend, Sam Ro’s latest piece on the bull market breakout. He wrote that earnings haven’t been as bad as expected. More importantly, prospects have actually been improving.
The chart below shows earnings expectations for the S&P 500 over the next 12 months. You can see how it rose in the first half of 2022, before collapsing over the second half of the year. The collapse continued into January of this year. But since then, earnings expectations have steadily risen. In fact, they’ve accelerated higher since mid-April, after the last earnings season started. Currently, they’re higher than where we started the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Backing up a bit: we can break apart the price return of a stock (or index) into two components:
I decomposed annual S&P 500 returns from 2020 – 2023 (through June 8th) into these two components. The chart below shows how these added up to the total return for each year. It also includes:
- Earnings growth
- Valuation multiple growth
- The bear market pullback from January 3rd, 2022, through October 12th, 2022
- And the 20% rally from the low through June 8th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
You can see how multiple changes have dominated the swing in returns.
The notable exception is 2021, when the S&P 500 return was propelled by earnings growth. In contrast, the 2022 pullback was entirely attributed to multiple contraction. Earnings made a positive contribution in 2022.
Now, multiple contraction is not surprising given the rapid change in rates, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) looked to get on top of inflation. However, they are close to the end of rate hikes, and so that’s no longer a big drag on multiples.
Consequently, multiple growth has pulled the index higher this year. You can see how multiple contraction basically drove the pullback in the Index during the bear market, through the low. But since then, multiples have expanded, pretty much driving the 20% gain.
Here’s a more dynamic picture of the S&P 500’s cumulative price return action from January 3rd, 2022, through June 8th, 2023. The chart also shows the contribution from earnings and multiple growth. As you can see, earnings have been fairly steady, rising 4% over the entire period. However, the swing in multiples is what drove the price return volatility.
Multiples contracted by 14%, and when combined with 4% earnings growth, you experienced the index return of -10%.
What next?
As I pointed out above, the problem for stocks last year was multiple contraction, which was driven by a rapid surge in interest rates.
The good news is that we’re probably close to end of rate hikes. The Fed may go ahead with just one more rate hike (in July), which is not much within the context of the 5%-point increase in rates that they implemented over the past year.
Our view is that rates are likely to remain where they are for a while. But rates are unlikely to rise from 5% to 10%, or even 7%, unless we get another major inflation shock.
This means a major obstacle that hindered stocks last year is dissipating. The removal of this headwind is yet another positive factor for stocks as we look ahead into the second half of the year.
Why Low Volatility Isn’t Bearish
“There is no such thing as average when it comes to the stock market or investing.” -Ryan Detrick
You might have heard by now, but the CBOE Volatility Index (better known as the VIX) made a new 52-week low earlier this week and closed beneath 14 for the first time in more than three years. This has many in the financial media clamoring that ‘the VIX is low and this is bearish’.
They have been telling us (incorrectly) that only five stocks have been going up and this was bearish, that a recession was right around the corner, that the yield curve being inverted was bearish, that M2 money supply YoY tanking was bearish, and now we have the VIX being low is bearish. We’ve disagreed with all of these worries and now we take issue with a low VIX as being bearish.
What exactly is the VIX you ask? I’d suggest reading this summary from Investopedia for a full explanation, but it is simply how much option players are willing to pay up for potential volatility over the coming 30 days. If they sense volatility, they will pay up for insurance. What you might know is that when the VIX is high (say above 30), that means the market tends to be more volatile and likely in a bearish phase. Versus a low VIX (say sub 15) historically has lead to some really nice bull markets and small amounts of volatility.
Back to your regularly scheduled blog now.
The last time the VIX went this long above 14 was for more than five years, ending in August 2012. You know what happened next that time? The S&P 500 added more than 18% the following 12 months. Yes, this is a sample size of one, but I think it shows that a VIX sub 14 by itself isn’t the end of the world.
One of the key concepts around volatility is trends can last for years. What I mean by this is for years the VIX can be high and for years it can be low. Since 1990, the average VIX was 19.7, but it rarely trades around that average. Take another look at the quote I’ve used many times above, as averages aren’t so average. This chart is one I’ve used for years now and I think we could be on the cusp of another low volatility regime. The red areas are times the VIX was consistently above 20, while the yellow were beneath 20. What you also need to know is those red periods usually took place during bear markets and very volatile markets, while the yellow periods were hallmarked by low volatility and higher equity prices. Are we about to enter a new period of lower volatility? No one of course knows, but if this is about to happen (which is my vote), it is another reason to think that higher equity prices (our base case as we remain overweight equities in our Carson House Views) will be coming.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lastly, I’ll leave you on this potentially bullish point. We like to use relative ratios to get a feel for how one asset is going versus to another. We always want to be in assets or sectors that are showing relative strength, while avoiding areas that are weak.
Well, stocks just broke out to new highs relative to bonds once again. After a period of consolidation during the bear market last year, now we have stocks firmly in the driver seat relative to bonds. This is another reason we remain overweight stocks currently and continue to expect stocks to do better than bonds going forward.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Our Leading Economic Index Says the Economy is Not in a Recession
We’ve been writing since the end of last year about how we believe the economy can avoid a recession in 2023, including in our 2023 outlook. This has run contrary to most other economists’ predictions. Interestingly, the tide has been shifting recently, as we’ve gotten a string of relatively stronger economic data. More so after the latest payrolls data, which surprised again.
One challenge with economic data is that we get so many of them, and a lot of times they can send conflicting signals. It can be hard to parse through all of it and come up with an updated view of the economy after every data release.
One approach is to combine these into a single indicator, i.e. a “leading economic index” (LEI). It’s “leading” because the idea is to give you an early warning signal about economic turning points.
Simply put, it tells you what the economy is doing today and what it is likely to do in the near future.
The most popular LEI points to recession
One of the most widely used LEI’s is released by the Conference Board, and it currently points to recession. As you can see in the chart below, the Conference Board’s LEI is highly correlated with GDP growth – the chart shows year-over-year change in both.
You can see how the index started to fall ahead of the 2001 and 2008 recession (shaded areas). The 2020 pandemic recession was an anomaly since it hit so suddenly. In any case, using an LEI means we didn’t have to wait for GDP data (which are released well after a quarter ends) to tell us whether the economy was close to, or in a recession.
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As you probably noticed above, the LEI is down 8% year-over-year, signaling a recession over the next 12 months. It’s been pointing to a recession since last fall, with the index declining for 13 straight months through April.
Quoting the Conference Board:
“The Conference Board forecasts a contraction of economic activity starting in Q2 leading to a mild recession by mid-2023.”
Safe to say, we’re close to mid-2023 and there’s no sign of a recession yet.
What’s inside the LEI
The Conference Board’s LEI has 10 components of which,
You can see how these indicators have pulled the index down by 4.4% over the past 6 months, and by -0.6% in April alone.
- 3 are financial market indicators, including the S&P 500, and make up 22% of the index
- 4 measure business and manufacturing activity (44%)
- 1 measures housing activity (3%)
- 2 are related to the consumer, including the labor market (31%)
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Here’s the thing. This popular LEI is premised on the fact that the manufacturing sector, and business activity/sentiment, is a leading indicator of the economy. This worked well in the past but is probably not indicative of what’s happening in the economy right now. For one thing, the manufacturing sector makes up just about 11% of GDP.
Consumption makes up 68% of the economy, and we believe it’s important to capture that.
In fact, consumption was strong in Q1 and even at the start of Q2, thanks to rising real incomes. Housing is also making a turnaround and should no longer be a drag on the economy going forward (as it has been over the past 8 quarters). The Federal Reserve (Fed) is also close to being done with rate hikes. Plus, as my colleague, Ryan Detrick pointed out, the stock market’s turned around and is close to entering a new bull market.
Obviously, there are a lot of data points that we look at and one way we parse through all of it is by constructing our own leading economic index.
An LEI that better reflects the US economy
We believe our proprietary LEI better captures the dynamics of the US economy. It was developed a decade ago and is a key input into our asset allocation decisions.
In contrast to the Conference Board’s measure, it includes 20+ components, including,
Just as an example, the consumer-related data includes unemployment benefit claims, weekly hours worked, and vehicle sales. Housing includes indicators like building permits and new home sales.
- Consumer-related indicators (make up 50% of the index)
- Housing activity (18%)
- Business and manufacturing activity (23%)
- Financial markets (9%)
The chart below shows how our LEI has moved through time – capturing whether the economy is growing below trend, on-trend (a value close to zero), or above trend. Like the Conference Board’s measure, it is able to capture major turning points in the business cycle. It declined ahead of the actual start of the 2011 and 2008 recessions.
As of April, our index is indicating that the economy is growing right along trend.
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Last year, the index signaled that the economy was growing below trend, and that the risk of a recession was high.
Note that it didn’t point to an actual recession. Just that “risk” of one was higher than normal. In fact, our LEI held close to the lows we saw over the last decade, especially in 2011 and 2016 (after which the economy, and even the stock market, recovered).
The following chart captures a close-up view of the last 3 and half years, which includes the Covid pullback and subsequent recovery. The contribution from the 4 major categories is also shown. You can see how the consumer has remained strong over the past year – in fact, consumer indicators have been stronger this year than in late 2022.
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The main risk of a recession last year was due to the Fed raising rates as fast as they did, which adversely impacted housing, financial markets, and business activity.
The good news is that these sectors are improving even as consumer strength continues. The improvement in housing is notable. Additionally, the drag from financial conditions is beginning to ease as we think that the Federal Reserve gets closer to the end of rate hikes, and markets rally.
Putting the Puzzle Together
Another novel part of our approach is that we have an LEI like the one for the US for more than 25 other countries. Each one is custom built to capture the dynamics of those economies. The individual country LEIs are also subsequently rolled up to a global index to give us a picture of the global economy, as shown below.
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I want to emphasize that we do not rely solely on this as the one and only input into our asset allocation, portfolio and risk management decisions. While it is an important component that encapsulates a lot of significant information, it is just one piece of the puzzle. Our process also has other pillars such as policy (both monetary and fiscal), technical factors, and valuations.
We believe it’s important to put all these pieces together, kind of like putting together a puzzle, to understand what’s happening in the economy and markets, and position portfolios accordingly.
Putting together a puzzle is both a mechanistic and artistic process. The mechanistic aspect involves sorting the pieces, finding edges, and matching colors, etc. It requires a logical and methodical approach, and in our process the LEI is key to that.
However, there is an artistic element as well. As we assemble the pieces together, a larger picture gradually emerges. You can make creative decisions about how each piece fits within the overall picture. Within the context of portfolio management, that takes a diverse range of experience. Which is the core strength of our Investment Research Team.
Welcome to the New Bull Market
“If you torture numbers enough, they will tell you anything.” -Yogi Berra, Yankee great and Hall of Fame catcher
Don’t shoot the messenger, but historically, it is widely considered a new bull market once stocks are more than 20% off their bear market lows. This is similar to when stocks are down 20% they are in a bear market. Well, the S&P 500 is less than one percent away from this 20% threshold, so get ready to hear a lot about it when it eventually happens.
I’m not crazy about this concept, as we’ve been in the camp that the bear market ended in October for months now (we started to say it in late October, getting some really odd looks I might add), meaning a new bull market has been here for a while. Take another look at the great Yogi quote above, as someone can get whatever they want probably when talking about bear and bull markets.
None the less, what exactly does a 20% move higher off a bear market low really mean? The good news is future returns are quite strong.
We found 13 times that stocks soared at least 20% off a 52-week low and 10 times the lows were indeed in and not violated. The only times it didn’t work? Twice during the tech bubble implosion and once during the Financial Crisis. In other words, some of the truly worst times to be invested in stocks. But the other 10 times, once there was a 20% gain, the lows were in and in most cases, higher prices were soon coming. This chart does a nice job of showing this concept, with the red dots the times new lows were still yet to come after a 20% bounce.
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Here’s a table with all the breakdowns. A year later stocks were down only once and that was during the 2001/2002 bear market, with the average gain a year after a 20% bounce at a very impressive 17.7%. It is worth noting that the one- and three-month returns aren’t anything special, probably because some type of consolidation would be expected after surges higher, but six months and a year later are quite strong.
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As we’ve been saying this full year, we continue to expect stocks to do well this year and the upward move is firmly in place and studies like this do little to change our opinion.
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 9th, 2023
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(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/11/23
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(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)($ADBE $ORCL $KR $ACB $ATEX $ITI $LEN $MPAA $JBL $ECX $POWW $HITI $MMMB $CGNT $WLY $RFIL)
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(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
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DISCUSS!
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