My Choices For Keeneland April 15, 2023
2023.04.14 20:12 hodsct59 My Choices For Keeneland April 15, 2023
Here are my choices for tomorrow's race at Keeneland. I am determined to nab a big score at Keeneland at one of their regular meets and do believe I will eventually accomplish that. I like quite a few longshots tomorrow, but I normally do better when I only think only one or two will impact a race, though my bets are set up to take chances every race because you never know when you will get the opportunity you can take advantage of a bad performance from over bet horses. But it happens. Good Luck!
Race 1: I will pass. No thanks.
Race 2: Maiden Claiming $50K -- Purse $49,000 --- 3 YO & Up F&M --- 6 Furlongs:
8) Speightsy Hot (30-1) got the worst of the temporary bias at TP though track was listed as fast was probably full of water, which aids front runners mostly but helps ones that loses the pace battle also. 1,2,3 break from gate finished 1,2,3. Not much to get excited about in here but this one worked decent since that effort (or non-effort, if you want). 4x5 to Nearctic, 5x5 to Raise A Native.
3) Midnight Grind (15-1) will be making first start of year but has nine works to prepare and the last was 2nd best of 48 at 4 furlongs that worked that day and distance, one week before scheduled start. Complete outcross in her first 5 generations but has Mr Prospector, Northern Dancer and Bold Ruler influences coming thru various families of their sons and daughters.
5) Good Tohave Around (30-1) will be making her first start of the year and the second of her career. She broke slowly in her first start and never made an impact, but many firsters have those kinds of debuts. She has 10 works to get ready for this effort under a new trainer with 3 of the last 4 being pretty good with the last work an easy breeze to get her happy one week before scheduled start. She will be first-time lasix. 4x3 to Storm Cat, 5x4 to Mr Prospector.
1)Itsablingthing (30-1) is a first-time starter that has 11 works to prepare for this start though most of them are on the slow side. Jockey has been riding less than a year but has one mount at Keeneland that drew the one post and after finding the rail dull swung out five-wide into the stretch to easily run down a Todd Pletcher's odds on favorite to finished 2nd to another Belterra Park longshot who wired the field. This is another race at Keeneland that resembles the horses in that field. 5x5 to Secretariat with some solid dam lines on both sides of her pedigree.
My Risks: $5 Ex Box 3-8, $1 Tri Box 3-5-8, $.30 Super Box 1-3-5-8, $.50 Super Straight 5-8 with 1-3-5-8 with 1-3-5-8 with 1-3-5-8. Total Risk: $29.20.
Race 3: Allowance --- Purse $120,000 --- 4 YO & Up N/W 2X or 3 races lifetime -- 1 1/16 Mile Turf:
8) Altazor (20-1) will be making his first start in the U.S. after being shipped up from Chile after racing in handicaps for most of his career and will also be making his first start of the year after a break of 4 1/2 months. Since his arrival, he has 10 workouts, all at Keeneland and all since the end of January. There are a few good ones mixed in with 2 stamina building 7 furlongs work. He adds blinkers and will be first time lasix. His sire, Mastercraftsman was a champion miler in Ireland but G1 stakes placed at 1 1/4 mile in England. His broodmare sire, Grand Slam, was a multiple G1 stakes winner in the U.S. but won and placed in a couple of G2 stakes up to 1 1/8 mile on dirt. 5x4 to Mr Prospector & Caro, 5(C)x5(C)x5(F) to Northern Dancer. Trainer Ignacio Correas has taken more than a 1/2 dozen of these imports from there and won stakes races with them, including the G1 BC Distaff with Blue Prize. Good spot to enter in his first U.S. start.
1)My Romeo Lima (15-1) won his 4th start back, then tailed off for the next three races. In his last, he set the pace and did not tire until deep stretch, signaling he is getting his best form back in his first race for new connections that claimed him out of the race before. I will not be concern about how slow the pace was because it is the typical pace for the FG grass this year that most stakes horses ran also. He has one decent work since that last effort. 3x5 to Seattle Slew & Mr Prospector, 5x5 to Nijinsky II.
4) Bullseye Bun (8-1) was dropped into a $40K O/C in last after a couple of dull efforts in this class and conditions where he tracked the early pace into the stretch before tiring on the AWT, but it was a good indication he is returning to his best form. He ran a deceptive good race in this condition at Keeneland's winter meet last year, beating one of the expected favorites in here while in trouble for a majority of the stretch run. Given he is likely going to be overlooked, I will take a chance with him here.
5) Common Bond (30-1) has been raced in races he had no real opportunity of winning for well over 1 1/2 years, running in 1 1/4 to 1 1/2-mile races when bloodlines suggest he will likely not go further than 1 1/8 mile at max but 1 1/16 mile is likely his best since he has no early speed, which in itself is a shock for The Factor progeny. He has started 13 times since he was purchased by current connections out of a summer 2021 sale and 8 of those starts have been at 1 1/4 mile or 1 1/2 mile. Amazing he has won one of those starts on a sloppy racetrack and finished 3rd in another for his only board showing. But he has raced three times at 1 1/16 mile and once at 1 1/8 miles and has finished 4th in each, with all three of the former 1 1/2 lengths or less from winning each time. his two thirds on grass came in the first two starts of his career, both at 1 1/16 mile. I will take a shot with this one as most horses that look better class wise are in the midst of being stopped on repeatedly or coming off extended layoffs.
My Risks: $5 Ex Box 5-8, $1 Tri Box 1-5-8, $.30 Super 1-4-5-8, $.50 Super Straight 5-8 with 1-4-5-8 with 1-4-5-8 with 1-4-5-8. Total Risk: $29.20.
Race 4: Claiming $30,000b --- 3 YOs & Up which have never won 3 races or 3 YOs with no restrictions other than claiming price --- Purse $48,000 --- 6 1/2 Furlongs:
4) Magnolia Midnight (6-1) won his fifth start back in early Jan 2022, then endured a stop and start campaign for the rest of last year, giving little to no chance to regain his best form. He was given a seven-month break to recoup from whatever was ailing him but returned to the work tab in November of last year where his first 6 works were fairly dull. Trainer gave him an out after he put several good works together but he encounter trouble and basically lost all chance to impact the race. In his last, he gave chase to only front running speed in the race that got loose as soon as the gates popped but kept trying to deep stretch when two late runners got pass him, but not because he hung like the charts suggests but because he simply got outran. Regardless of which way you see that race, it was good enough to set him up for this start. He has 3 good works since that start is another clue the race was helpful. Complete outcross in his first five generation but has In Reality influences in three of the 4 main families of his pedigree.
2)Geaux Yoshka (12-1) last two races were horrible but since both were at OP were likely the result of him not caring about the way the surface felt to him. However, his third start back was limited to 3 YOs but open to all 3 YOs who was willing to enter for a $50K and had no other restrictions such as N/W 2 or N/W 3 lifetime. If he runs that race back, he will turn this race into a laughter. Trainer kept working him at OP but spaced out his works just enough to keep him fit while he decided what to try next. His last at OP and his only one at Keeneland, four days before this start, are good works and signals to trainer he is now ready. 3x3 to Seeking The Gold, 4(C)x4(C)x4(F) to Mr Prospector.
6) C'mon Man (3-1) was claimed two starts back for $25K by current connections and raised significantly in class in first start for them but was no factor in the race. He was shipped to CD from California and had an easy work over their training track. Then shipped to Keeneland where he posted a good work one week before this scheduled start. Trainer is known for his claims and getting improvement out of them after a few works and/or minor equipment adjustments. Likely another one of his claims that proves beneficial. 5x4 to Seattle Slew.
9) Ready Pursuit (30-1) went gate to wire in the first start of his career for $50K at Keeneland but was claimed out of that start by connections who seemed intent on making him a late runner and he struggled for 1 1/2 years as he went down the class ladder to the bottom where he was claimed out of his last race for $5K by current connections. This horse is bred for front running speed and should have a lot of it, getting some influences from both sides of his pedigree. The horse has followed a one good race then 4 bad races all the way back to his first start but likely from training more than real ability. 5(C)x4(F)x5(F) to Mr Prospector, 5(C)x5(F)x5(F) to Northern Dancer.
My Risks $5 Ex Box 2-4, $1 Tri Box 2-4-6, $.30 Super Box 2-4-6-9, $1 Super Straight 2-4 with 2-4-6-9 with 2-4-6-9 with 2-4-6-9. Total Risks $29.20.
Race 5: Allowance N/W 1x or N/W 2 races lifetime --- Purse $110,000 --- 3 YOs --- 1 1/8 Mile Turf:
9) Really Good (6-1) is taking a major drop-in class from a G1 stakes race into a N/W 2 lifetime. This horse will likely be close to even money or less at post time. His last in the BC Juvenile Turf was a dud but he still got beat a total of 6 1/2 lengths for the win, meaning while he was never likely to win, the whole pack behind the first two finishers was tightening late. His two stake races before that were both good 3rds against better than what he will see today. He is making his first start of the year but has 5 decent works for this start, will be adding lasix and trainer is better known for his grass runners that wins big races. 2x5 to Danzig, 4x5 to Alydar, 5x4 to Raise A Native, 5x5 to Native Dancer. Really Good's dam line is full of major broodmares.
10) First Strike (20-1) broke his maiden in his second start of his career on the AWT at TP and his last start of last year. Given his normal 2 months between starts, he returned in February, got squeezed at the start, necessitating a run from last and ended up splitting the field while never really impacting the race in a $50 O/C race. He has five good works since that effort and will try again after a 2-month break. Normally, I use caution betting Medaglia D'Oro progeny on grass because I simply think he is a better dirt sire but I will definitely bet this one as his dam is Striker Charmer who won 3 graded stakes on the grass and she descends from the same dam line as Point Of Entry, a multiple G1 SW and Champion on grass, though through different daughters of Stick To Beauty. 4x5 to Northern Dancer. Solid WP chance.
12) Dark Side (15-1) started his career in Ireland finishing 2nd twice in three minor stake races before being shipped to U.S. to continue his career. New trainer worked him on grass a few times, likely not getting the results he wanted to see, so switched him to the AWT at GP and then TP after shipping him to his home base. Works improved enough he decided to try him on the AWT at TP in a maiden race, where he sat just behind the early pace near the rail, shot thru an opening heading into the stretch and opened up a clear lead, then was all out to hold a late runner and the one he shot past at the wire in a 3-horse photo finish. Has three pretty good works since his last and will be switching back to grass. His pedigree suggests he wo9uld like having the early lead, so expect his new jockey, Dettori, to place him there. This is a royalty bred European and a win would not be a surprise. 4x5 to Mr Prospector, 5(C)x4(F)x5(F) to Northern Dancer. More important is a cross to Never Bend, through Dark Side's dam, whose dam Lalun is also dam of Bold Reason, the broodmare sire of Sadler's Wells, who is also in the dam pedigree. The famous European cross Danzig/Sadler's Wells is also present.
3) Classic Creation (15-1) started his career with 2 races at Saratoga where he showed some talent but needed a few races to gain experience. He was given a 3-month break and shipped to Tampa Bay where he finished 3rd, 1st, and 3rd in three starts. The win was his maiden breaker as he eyed the early pace and drew off when asked by jockey approaching six furlongs in a good time in a one-mile grass test. He then entered an O/C $75K race at 1 1/16 mile where he sat a little further off the pace but by the time he moved up to challenge, the top two were gone and he had to settle for third, beaten 8+ lengths. Trainer has put him through 8 works since that last race, all useful including 2 bullet works with his last work being one on Keeneland's AWT, one week before scheduled start. He is in with a tough field but has the right style to impact the race late. 4x3 to Storm Cat, 5(C)x4(F)x5(F) To Mr Prospector.
My Risks: $10 WP 10, $5 Ex Box 9-10, $1 Tri Box 9-10-12, $.30 Super Box 3-9-10-12, $.50 Super Straight 10-12 with 3-9-10-12 with 3-9-10-12, with 3-9-10-12. Total Risk: $49.20.
Race 6: Maiden Special Weight -- Purse $100,000 --- 3 YO Fillies --- 6 Furlongs:
2)Nikki M P (9-2) has one start at GP where she broke slowly, then made up some ground but never got involved in the outcome as front runner opened a clear lead just after a quarter was completed and was long gone from the field, a typical GP result, to finish 4th beaten 8+ lengths. Trainer has put 6 more works in her, the first three at Palm Meadows were leg stretching type works, then shipped to Keeneland where she put in a good work, followed by an easy work six days later and then another good work 7 days later and 7 days before this scheduled start. Jose Ortiz takes the mount, and she should be more forwardly place in here. A daughter of Into Mischief produced by a Medaglia D'Oro daughter, she is a complete outcross in her first 5 generations but has a ticket to excel as her 2nd dam, Awesome Humor is a 4-time graded stakes winner including the G1 Spinaway S.
11) Brenda (20-1) is a first-time starter. She has 10 works since the end of January to prepare for this start, most of them just let her get used to a jockey and the feel of dirt but her last two are exactly the type of works that generates a risk from me. The first was a bullet four furlongs from the gate followed by a good work at 5 furlongs at Keeneland in 1:00 flat, the fourth best of 29 that day and distance. The 5-furlong work is a good stamina builder that is required by me for any horse, including 2 YOs, for any first timer attempt at 5 1/2 furlongs or more. I found this requirement to be much more accurate than super-fast works. She, too, is a complete outcross in her first 5 generations but has Native Dancer crossing in her sire line along with his daughter as the 5th dam of Brenda, along with a Noholme II crossing thru his son Nodouble in the sire line and Noholme II son United Holme as sire of Brenda's 3rd dam. When the gates pops, watch her go as she has a good chance of going gate to wire, especially if she breaks on cue.
5) Nursekringledances (12-1) has started three times, all last year, the first two she tried to put in late kicks to little avail. In her last start, she broke mid-pack and stay there throughout mostly because the winner opened up a big early lead and romped while she was stuck on a dead rail. Equibase charts mentions she faded but I simply see it has she held her position and her trainer had picked a day where a late kick was ineffective as only one horse put in a late run, and she was outside the cluster the rail usually generates. She has 8 works and is now returning after a 5-month break but her late kick should be more effective this time around. 4x3 to Storm Cat, 5x4 to Mr Prospector, 5(C)x5(F)x5(F) to Northern Dancer.
9) Scylla (5-2) is a first-time starter. She has 11 works for her first start which a few shows some talent, but one 5-furlong work is a little further back than I preferred to see. Also a full sister to Tacitus. 3x4 to Unbridled, 4x4 to Seattle Slew, 5x5 to Northern Dancer & Secretariat.
My Risks: $5 Ex Box 2-11, $1 Tri Box 2-5-11, $.30 Super 2-5-9-11, $.50 Super Straight 2-11 with 2-5-9-11 with 2-5-9-11 with 2-5-9-11. Total Risk $29.20.
Race 7: Allowance N/W 1x or N/W 2 lifetime -- Purse $110,000 --- 4 YOs & Up --- 1 1/16 Mile:
Race 8: Giant's Causeway Stakes -- Purse $250,000 --- 3 YOs & Up F&M ---- 5 1/2 Furlongs Turf:
11) Little Jewel (8-1) won the Captiva Island S at 5 furlongs on turf in her last start and her first start against previous winners. She has two works since, a slow work on grass that was nothing more than a leg stretching work and then an average work on the grass that should have her fit to try again to take a larger stakes race. The waters is a little deeper in here than her last but her bloodlines is suggesting it will not be a problem. She is a complete outcross in her first five generations but has many crosses to sons and grandsons of "The Flying Filly" Mumtaz Mahal. In addition, there are many of crosses to Domino (nicknamed "The Black Whirlwind" was a product of crossings to Lexington, Glencoe, & Lexington's sire Boston) family, including three different generation hits to dams in Little Jewels dam family (4th dam, Rate Card is a daughter of Spy Song + 6th dam, Here's Hoping, is a granddaughter of Ultimus + 9th dam Miss Jemima is a daughter of Black Toney who is the grandsire of Spy Song and son of Peter Pan). Top Choice.
8) Querobin Dourada (30-1) has raced against a couple of these that is expected to be among the favorites in here, giving both at least 2 lbs (#10, both 3 YO) and 3 lbs (#12 carried same weight but weight for age was 3 lbs) though both had won bigger races and more money than her, and then jockey rushed her to contest the lead when she had already proven she preferred to rate. If jockey lets her settle in stride and let others battle for the early lead, she will come flying late with a shot at a huge upset. She is not bred as good as my top choice but has a sire line that has sired top sprinters on grass. Outcross in her first 5 generations.
4) Oeuvre (9-2) is on a current 5 race winning streak and has won 9 of her last 10 starts. Her only loss during this period was when she broke slowly and then spent the rest of the race trying to make up ground lost but was her closest at the end and it was the richest race she ever tried. 5 works since her last start and all were good which is not a surprise considering how fast she is but it really does nothing to tell you how fit she is. 3x4 to Storm Cat, 4x4 to Lear Fan, 5x5 to Mr Prospector & His Majesty, 5(C)x5(F)x5(F) to Northern Dancer.
6) Minaun (30-1) has started once this year at 5 furlongs on grass and after a fairly slow break, settled into stride and then offered a solid late kick when ask to go heading into the stretch though she still fell almost 2 lengths short on winning. She was tried at one mile on grass as a 3 YO but proved it was probably just a little further than she would prefer to go. She started her 4 YO campaign back in grass sprints and showed slight improvement but changed trainers after just two starts and would compete only once more the rest of the year. Trainer has given her 3 more works since her last race, the first work a good work followed by two easier works. 4x3 to Danzig.
My Risks $5 Ex Box 8-11, $1 Tri Box 4-8-11, $.30 Super Box 4-6-8-11, $.50 Super Straight 4-8 with 4-6-8-11 with 4-6-8-11 with 4-6-8-11. Total Risk $29.20.
Race 9: Lexington Stakes(G3) --- Purse $400,000 --- 3 YOs --- 1 1/16 Mile:
4) Transect (30-1) caught a muddy track in last and after breaking in mid-pack, did not get involved in race likely because it was first time getting mud splashed into his face that a lot of horses have trouble handling the first time, but some gets used to it when they get that experience. He returned to his home base and has put in 4 good works since then including 2 best works of the day. He is bred to be extremely fast, and it is not if but when he develops into a top-class runner. His sire, Gun Runner did not fully mature until he turned 4 YO and then was nearly unbeatable. His 2nd dam, Madcap Escapade, was fast and special since her first start at 2 YO and beat eventual Ky Oaks winner Ashado in the Ashland and then setting a blistering pace while on the lead to deep stretch of the Ky Oaks before Ashado and longshot Island Sand got past her. 4x4 to Storm Cat but also has a crossing to Alanesian in the sire line and broodmare sire line. Will race with blinkers. Will try to take this field gate to wire and I really don't see anyone that can stop him. Big upset potential.
2)Reinvest (30-1) has started twice and won them both but will be stepping up in class here again. He has one easy work since his last start but is coming back in 24 days, so it is obvious trainer didn't want too hard of a work. His bloodlines suggest he may not be done just yet, so I expect another step forward. Trainer is also owner of Blazing Meadows Farm who started breeding not long after his training career started and bred quite a few that started their careers showing talent and then sold them for 6 figures to bigger farms. So far, these owners have decided to race this one but probably have not received a big offer for him yet, either. 4x4 to Mr Prospector, 5x5 to Northern Dancer & Sir Ivor, 5(C)x5(C)x5(F) to Raise A Native.
5) First Mission (3-1) has started twice, both in maiden races, first finishing 2nd running late from off the pace in a good time at 6 furlongs, then eyeing the early pace before going by when asking to win going away as a heavy odds-on favorite. These will be much tougher than anything he has seen yet but is a Godolphin home bred that Cox has trained most of their runners in the U.S. lately, so he may be up to the task. One good work since his last followed by a leg stretching type work one week before scheduled start. 4x5 to Mr Prospector, 4(C)x5(F)x5(F) to Northern Dancer. Dam, Elude, has the same sire and broodmare sire as Rachel Alexandra and this is her second foal to race.
6) Disarm (7-2) finished second in the Louisiana Derby in his last start but his jockey waited too long to go after a clear loose on the lead horse that set a crawling pace and was gone before he was asked to run. Trainer is changing jockeys, likely to get him near the early lead, but I believe he will find this task much harder than the La Derby because a couple in here is much faster than the one he chased in last. Two fairly easy work since that effort, both at CD. 5(C)x5(C)x5(F) to Fappiano.
My Risks: $5 Ex Box 2-4, $1 Tri Box 2-4-5, $.30 Super Box 2-4-5-6, $,50 Super Straight 2-4 with 2-4-5-6 with 2-4-5-6 with 2-4-5-6. Total Risk $29.20.
Race 10: Jenny Wiley Stakes(G1) -- Purse $600,000 --- 4 YO & UP F&M --- 1 1/16 Mile Turf:
5) With The Moonlight (5-2) has started twice this year and both were winning efforts. Still looking for her first G1 win but will need to produce her best run to accomplish that here. But the trainer has been lights out since taking the head role of training Godolphin's best grass runners in the U.S. 5x5 to Mr Prospector.
6) Skims (20-1) last started in December in the G1 American Oaks, where she had a good ground saving trip near the inside until deep stretch when she could not find a path around a pack of horses, causing her to idle and finishing 5th, 1 1/4 lengths from the win. That was her first attempt in G1 company and at 1 1/4 mile, so her late kick was not likely as powerful as usual but will shorten back up to 1 1/16 mile for this G1 where she should find a late kick quicker if needed. After almost a two-month break, she showed up on the work tab with 2 easy breezes on dirt followed four good or useful works on the grass, including 2 best work of the day. She is ready and will likely get odds much higher than her real chances in here. Value play. 5x4 to Mr Prospector, 4(C)x5(C) to Northern Dancer but 5th dam, Chapel of Dreams is a daughter of his and a G2 SW 3/4 sister to Storm Cat.
1)Pizza Bianca (20-1) is another who last raced in the G1 American Oaks and she too was inside late but tried to altered course at least three time by Equibase footnotes to no avail to finish just behind my above choice in 6th beaten 2 1/2 lengths. However, she is already a G1 SW winning the BC Juvenile Turf Fillies S in 2021 with Jose Ortiz abroad and who gets the mount back. She has 6 works since the end of February, all designed to keep her happy until next start, including 2 bullets. 4(C)x5(C)x4(F)x5(F) to Northern Dancer, 5(C)x5(C)x5(F) to Natalma.
2)In Italian (7-5) will be making her first start of the year. She has 11 works to prepare for this start including the last 6 at 5 furlongs, which you will rarely see Brown use. But he is more concerned about stamina than any benefits of speed that will give his trainees an edge. She has already proven she is all front running speed so short fast works will really not help this one. Making sure she has enough air to complete the distance after a six-month break will. The one to run down and that will be a tough task for any of these in here. But as always, not willing to risk money on such low odds, so it is either pass on betting this race or trying to get 1 or 2 on top of her. 5(C)x5(F)x5(F) to Northern Dancer.
My Risks: $5 Ex Box 5-6, $1 Super Straight 5-6 with 1-2-5-6 with 1-2-5-6 with 1-2-5-6. Total Risk $24.00.
Race 11: O/C $80K N/W 2x or N/W 3 lifetime or Claiming $80K --- Purse $120,000 --- 4 YO & Up F&M --- 6 1/2 Furlongs:
4) Ironic Twist (15-1) has one start this year where she stumbled out of the gate getting away last, was rushed up to contest the early pace and put the other front runner away but had no response when 2 eyeing the early pace presented their challenge to win the race. This is a typical result at every racetrack when one that has trouble may look like it ran its best race but rarely actually does. Finding these types and realizing the trouble caused them the race instead of potential can lead to very rewarding results if you are willing to take chances. She has three works since that race, the first 2 at SA which were good, including a bullet work but would not alone draw a risk from me. But her last work, after arriving at Keeneland, was also good and she got a feel of the track and the difference in air that she will intake while trying to catch her breath after exertion that often prevents one from hyper ventilating. 3x4 to Mr Prospector, 4x5 to Northern Dancer.
3) Radio Days (7-2) has started once this year, as the odds-on favorite, but could not find the late punch she normally puts in because it was her first in 7+ months and while she was trained properly before the race, a horse's late kick with power behind or the will to win is the last part of returning to top form. That race was helpful in setting her up for this race and with 6 more works since the effort, should now be sitting on her best effort. Timing matters in horse racing. 4x4 to Storm Cat, 6(C)x6(C)x4(F)x5(F) to Mr Prospector (yes, his influence through his son, Fappiano, completes the like gene crossing).
11) Napa Candy (20-1) returns after a little less than a five-month break and has four works to prepare for this race, the last one at Keeneland indicates she is likely ready. Normally, I will wait a race to see how far their training has gotten them, but in this case, I feel the race is set up for her late kick and there are only a few in here that is comfortable with that style of running. If I really felt she was fully fit, she would be my choice to win this race. 5x4 to Mr Prospector but 2nd dam, Styler, is a full sister to 2005 Ky Derby winner, Giacomo.
6) Current Climate (20-1) was claimed two starts back by current connections and won her first start for them while rising up a step-in class. Looks like she is rising again but checking the conditions of this race with the conditions of her last shows they are the exact same conditions, but the bigger track always allow owners to run for bigger tags to entice them to race here. Trainer has not given this one a publish work since that win but does most of his training on his private farm, so you will get no help in telling if horse has held its best form. However, based on what I seen from his claims, I will be including this one underneath, especially at expected off odds in the 30-1 vicinity. 4x4 to Mr Prospector, 4x5 to Secretariat, 5(C)x5(F)x5(F) to Raise a Native.
My Risks: $5 Ex Box 3-4, $1 Tri Box 3-4-11, $.30 Super Box 3-4-6-11, $.50 Super Straight 3-4 with 3-4-6-11 with 3-4-6-11 with 3-4-6-11. Total Risk $29.20.
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2023.04.10 00:52 joedev007 Trackmaster gave everyone a free winning Pick 5 at Gulfstream
Late Pick 5 at GP
$2 PICK FIVE 6/3/3,9/4/5 $2,219.40
Including a 18-1 on top in race 7
R6) #6 Starship Renegade
Win percentage under similar conditions may be the key for this horse. Consider in this one if only for the decent Equibase Speed Figure booked in the last affair.
R7) #3 Dancingwthdaffodls
Seems to have a very good class edge based on the recent company kept.
R8) #9 Carrothers
Recorded a quite good Equibase speed figure last time out.
R9) #4 Baby Steps
Delgado has this entry racing well w/ decent speed figs recently. Had a exemplary 89 Equibase Speed Fig last time out.
R10) #5 Gone Nuts
Good here based on the numbers in the speed department alone. Could best this field, based on his last speed fig of - 81.
Trackmaster did this in Saratoga a few times last few years. Once at Aqueduct for $95,000 for 50 cents :)
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2023.04.08 00:01 hodsct59 My Choices For Keeneland April 8, 2023 Blue Grass Stakes Day
1st Race: Claiming $30K N/W 2 Races Lifetime --- Purse $47,000 --- 3 YO & UP F&M --- 6 Furlongs:
2) Cupids Payday (30-1) did not care for AWT in last two and trouble at the gate both starts, so I will toss both. She will be receiving 6 lbs on the weight for age scale which is significant considering 3 YOs are still growing and developing while four years old should be fully grown. 4x4 to Mr Prospector.
9) Ms Hayley (12-1) tends to break slow in most of her starts, leaving her with too much to do and has rarely mounted a serious run. Another 3 YO who gets 6 lbs from her elders that will add lasix for this start and her work 4 days before this scheduled start was designed to get her away from the gate quicker. Top choice beat this one in a Mdn claiming $30K race that they both were claimed out of by current connections. Her 2nd dam, River Street, is a winning full sister to Street Cry. 4x5 to Fappiano, 5x4 to Mr Prospector.
6) Azul Tequila (15-1) broke her maiden in her first career start, then was away from the races for over a year. Since her return, she has not broken well and has been left with too much to do, likely because she is less than fully fit. But her recent works indicates her early speed is returning though her last blistering work just before this start is too fast for it to fully benefit her and I will use caution, as always with these type works. 5x5 to Seattle Slew, 5x5x5 to Mr Prospector.
4) Proud Foot (5-2) broke her maiden in her 13th career effort but has made a career of getting close and not being able to finish off the win. I will expect more of the same until she shows otherwise. Most horses do snap out of their sucker horse tendencies, but it is usually impossible to predict when they will. 4x5x5 to Northern Dancer, 4x5 to Fappiano, 5x5 to Mr Prospector.
My Risks: $4 Ex Box 2-9, $1 Tri Box 2-6-9, $.30 Super Box 2-4-6-9, $1 Super Key 9 with 2-4-6 with 2-4-6 with 2-4-6. Total Risk: $29.20,
Race 2: Maiden Special Weight --- Purse $100,000 --- 3 YOs ---- 7 Furlongs:
9) Just A Photo (15-1) is a first-time starter. He has some good steady works for his debut, but I especially like his last 2 works, both at 5 furlongs. I usually look for at least one good 4-furlong work, one good 5-furlong work and one good gate work with the closer to debut day they are recorded, the better. Will take my chances on this one. 4x4 to Mr Prospector. Dam line traces back to Gallorette.
8) Bettera (5-2) started one time, broke slowly and last, then worked his way thru the field into third entering the stretch but top two was long gone on FG speed favoring surface in one of the fastest 6 furlongs times recorded at their meet this year. He was three more good and useful works since that start, but a better start would be most helpful for his chances. 4x4 to Danzig, 4x4x5 to Mr Prospector, 5x5x5 to Northern Dancer. His dam line traces back to Bold Irish, the dam of Shenanigans who produced 3/4 sisters Ruffian and Laughter, etc.
2) Accident (30-1) has started 16 times with 2 seconds and 4 thirds but 6 of those starts came against stakes horses. He produced a big leg kick in the stretch of his maiden race two starts back, but it knocked him out of having a real chance in his last stakes engagement and passed only horses who tired. He has two good works since that last effort that suggest he is over his temporary sluggishness. 4x5 to Storm Cat but his like genes crossing throughout his pedigree to Northern Dancer, his sons and his sire makes him dangerous every time he sets foot on the track.
3) Dual Monarchy (20-1) has started four times, with a second and a third, all at two turns. He will be shortening up to six furlongs which is his broodmare sire, Congrats, best distance. He has 3 very useful works since his last start with the last two works at 5 furlongs on Keeneland's dirt track. He should get a good stalking position early with a chance to chase the early speed down as the early pace should be contested. An outcross in his first 5 generations but has Mr Prospector, Bold Ruler, La Troienne and Teddy influences scattered all through his pedigree.
10) Equivoque (4-1) is a first-time starter but also has a big chance to impact the race. While I feel he will be better at two turns, he might like sprinting just fine. 4x3 to Danzig, 5x4x5 to Northern Dancer. His 3rd dam, Razyana, is also dam of Danehill.
My Risks: $5 Ex Box 8-9, $1 Tri Box 2-8-9, $.10 Super Box 2-3-8-9-10 ($12), $.50 Super Key 9 with 2-8-10 with 2-8-10 with 2-8-10. Total Risk $31.00.
Race 3: Allowance N/W 2x or Which Have Never Won 3 Races --- Purse $120,000 --- 4 YOs & Up --- 5 1/2 Furlong Turf:
11) Stonevicious (20-1) has started once on grass in his career, his very first race at 5 1/2 furlongs where he eyed the early pace, then came with a late rush but was beaten by 2 that moved earlier that he did to finish third. In his fourth lifetime start, he was claimed by current connections for $30K. This trainer has made some shrewd claims for bargain prices and develop them into solid money makers. Looks outclass in here but race is setup for one willing to run late and he fits that scenario. Has no works since his last but trainer does not work his trainees on certified tracks very often, preferring to work them on his farm. 4x5 to Mr Prospector but has a crossing to Noholme II through Nodouble's daughter, No Class, on his sire side and through a Noholme II granddaughter, Evil Elaine, in the dam line.
4) Willtorun (15-1) broke his maiden in his first start at 5 1/2 furlongs on grass. Two starts later, at CD, he won his first condition race at 5 furlongs on dirt. His next three starts came on the AWT at TP but he also recorded several works on Keeneland's training track which Equibase lists as an AWT and they were all slow works. You can look at this one way or the other. He either does not like the AWT or he went off form after his last win and has spent the winter cycling back into form which is what I believe is the case. His last two works since his last race are his 2 best of the winter, especially the latest work. 4x4 to Danzig, 4x4x5 to Mr Prospector.
2) Sky And Sand (10-1) need his last start as he returned from a six-month break. Before that, he went off his best form at his first level allowance win at CD in his first start on grass at 5 1/2 furlongs. It is difficult to tell when exactly his form declined as he was thrown in much too tough in his next three starts. However, his last start before the break, he showed signs of regaining his best form. He has one easy work since that last start, an easy 4-furlongs in the mud designed to let him stretch his legs while keeping him happy and eager. 5x4 to Mr Prospector.
6) Diamond City (20-1) dead heated for the win in his last start while making all the pace on the AWT. He has some back class including winning a Canadian listed stakes race at 5 furlongs on grass while breaking his maiden in his third career start. Current connections purchased him out of a sale last November for $60K and started working him slowly back towards his top physical form and he rewarded them with his best effort since he was a 2 YO. He is bred to be fast and will be the one to catch in here. Has no works since that start but returns in 9 days. His sire, Shackleford, is a multiple G1 winner who got even faster when he turned 4 YO. 2nd dam, Sweet Talker, is also a G1 winner on grass.
My Risks: $8 WP 11, $5 Ex Box 4-11, $1 Tri Box 2-4-11, $.30 Super Box 2-4-6-11, $1 Super Key 11 with 2-4-6 with 2-4-6 with 2-4-6. Total Risk $45.20.
Race 4: Allowance O/C $100K N/W 3 or N/W 2 since Sept 8 or which have never won 4 races or Claiming Price $100K --- Purse $130,000 --- 4 YO & Up --- 6 1/2 Furlongs:
2) Sir Alfred James (9-2) is returning to his best form. The one to beat.
5) Three Technique (7-2) returns after a five-month break and looks fit and ready.
6) Fortin Hill (6-1) returning from a five-month break, but trainer has put more works in him while not rushing him to return to form. More works usually equals better form on return.
1) Kneedeepinsnow (4-1) is facing the weakest field he has seen in a while and may be fit enough to beat these despite the six-month break.
My Risk $5 Ex Box 2-5, $1 Tri Box 2-5-6. Total Risk $16.00
Race 5: Commonwealth Stakes (G3) --- Purse $300,000 --- 4 YO & Up --- 7 Furlongs:
3) Get Her Number (4-1) Looks like the one to beat. Class of field.
1) Hoist The Gold (8-1) stretched out in last after coming up short in last few. Should help with the cutback in distance, which many trainers tend to use.
10) Long Range Toddy (30-1) has raced at Keeneland twice, finishing 2nd both times. You see one of these races in the form, 2nd beaten a neck at 19-1. The other? This race last year when he finished 2nd at 45-1 beaten 2 1/2 lengths to the 2nd choice in that race. Favorite finished last of 10. He stretched out in last and now the cutback in distance. Form looks bad but it did last year too against easier.
7) Run Classic (3-1) just missed in last race. Shortens up to 7 furlongs with not a lot of front running speed in here. Trainer will likely send him and could wire if the one above does not go with him as expected.
My Risks: $5 Exacta Box 1-3, $1 Tri Box 1-3-7, $.30 Super 1-3-7-10, $1 Super Key 1 with 3-7-10 with 3-7-10 with 3-7-10. Total Risk $29.20.
Race 6: Appalachian Stakes (G2) --- Purse $400,000 --- 3 YO Fillies --- 1 Mile Turf:
9) Well Into (10-1) won her last 2 starts and next logical move is stakes' company. Trainer learned turf racing under Chad Brown before going out on his own. Check this horse's works and they are all at 4 furlongs and they are all fairly slow, exactly the same method Brown uses for grass runners. Both works their trainees an extra furlong or two, depending on what they feel a trainee needs, after the work is over. Outcross in his first five generations but she has Affirmed's broodmare sire, Crafty Admiral on her sire side and Crafty Admiral sire line as broodmare sire of Danzig, who appears twice on her dam side. Both Affirmed and Danzig liked all types of going but both excelled on grass with their progeny.
6) Be Your Best (8-1) will be tossing her last start in the BC Juvenile Fillies Turf because trouble was way too much to overcome. Her only loss before that came to the horse underneath her, but it was a yielding turf course where she could not put in her normal late kick against a gate to wire winner. 5x5x5 to Northern Dancer, 7x7x6 to Somethingroyal thru her sons Sir Gaylord and Secretariat. Danzig/Sadler's Wells crossing.
1) Beautifulnavigator (12-1) will not pay too much attention to the times of this horse's races as she raced on by far the slowest firm grass course in America for over 4 decades. She should set just off the pace setters and can win if they get in a duel. 5x5 to Danzig & Mr Prospector.
7) Pleasant Passage (5-2) will not get the benefit of a slow pace afforded her on a yielding grass course two back and will have to run her best race to beat these. 4x4 to Northern Dancer & Mr Prospector.
My Risks: $5 Ex Box 6-9, $1 Tri Box 1-6-9, $.30 Super Box 1-6-7-9, $1 Super Key 9 with 1-6-7 with 1-6-7 with 1-6-7. Total Risk $29.20.
Race 7: Pass on this short field.
Race 8: Shakertown Stakes (G2) --- Purse $350,000 --- 4 YO & Up ---- 5 1/2 Furlongs Turf:
9) Bad Beat Brian (15-1) In his last 2 starts, he has shown speed to the top of the stretch, but in last he carried his speed just as little bit further than the race before, then flatten out in the stretch while still attempting to rebid, both on the AWT. Now he returns to the surface where he has recorded every one of his board placings and is 0 for 5 on the other surfaces. He is returning to his best form and they will likely not catch him in this race as his main competitors are coming off breaks and probably will need a race.
8) Caravel (8-5) returns to the races for the first time since she pulled off a shocker in the BC Turf Sprint. She has been working well but the problem with her is she will be giving these two lbs each when the female allowance weight is taken into account. The weight normally hurts most on the break and the first few strides and that is all top choice needs to get a little separation. However, she used to be a late runner earlier in her career, but trainer Cox started sending her out front after new connections purchased her out of a breeding stock sale. So, she will likely not stop trying but after a horse gets used to getting the early lead, their late punch suffers the most.
11) Stitched (30-1) is coming off a 7-month layoff but his trainer has brought them back in top form before, especially in Kentucky. Looking for him to sit 3-4 lengths back early then make his best move entering the stretch.
5) Mister Mmmmm (6-1) looks to be the biggest threat to my top choice. He has rated just off the pace in his three grass wins, but they were at 5 Furlongs instead of 5 1/2 Furlongs. He is also stepping up in class and has never faced this kind of competition before and is the reason I am using a bigger shot on top. He is fit though and cannot leave a Speightstown off my risks when they are working fast like he is.
My Risks: $5 Ex Box 8-9, $1 Tri Box 8-9-11, $.30 Super Box 5-8-9-11, $1 Super Key 9 with 5-8-11 with 5-8-11 with 5-8-11. Total Risk $29.20.
Race 9: Blue Grass Stakes (G1) --- Purse $1,000,000 --- 3 YOs --- 1 1/8 Mile:
6) Scoobie Quando (15-1) broke his maiden in his first start in a stakes race then finished second in his next two. It will depend on how well he transfers his AWT form to dirt. But his works on dirt are very encouraging including a bullet 59 4/5 for 5 furlongs nine days ago. 5x4 to Northern Dancer. 2nd dam, Darwinia, is dam of 2011 Ky Derby winner, Animal Kingdom.
7) Sun Thunder (10-1) did not have a chance to impact the La Derby as the front runner set a crawling pace and easily had enough to keep late runners at bay in a race that was almost 3 full seconds off the track record, set by Epicenter in last year's Louisiana Derby. However, the Risen Star was a key race that will play out in this year's Ky Derby as the winner came back and won the Arkansas Derby and the 3rd place finisher, Two Phil's returned to win the Jeff Ruby Steaks S. Outcross in first five generations, though he does have an Somethingroyal crossing in his pedigree, twice to Secretariat and once to Sir Gaylord. Also crossing to Nothern Dancer thru 4 different sons.
3) Verifying (3-1) will toss his last race as he drew the rail on a sloppy OP track and that is the cworst place to be on that type of track unless you can clear early and move out a couple of paths. A leg stretching work followed by 3 decent works including a six-furlongs move in 112 2/5 since his last. Very little front running speed signed on in here just him a good probability of going gate to wire. 5x5 to Baldski blends well with his sire, Nijinsky II in the sire line.
1) Tapit Trice (5-2) won the Tampa Bay Derby in last but had to use a late kick a little more than I preferred to see and that makes him vulnerable in here. For a jockey to wait that late to make a move tells me the horse was laboring to find his best stride and the 31 4/5 time it took to run the last 2 1/2 furlongs tells me it was more others stopping than he was kicking. Taking a stance against. 3x4 to A.P. Indy and Unbridled.
My Risks $5 Ex Box 3-7, $1 Tri Box 3-6-7, $.30 Super Box 1-3-6-7, $1 Super Key 3 with 1-6-7 with 1-6-7 with 1-6-7. Total Risk $29.20.
Race 10: Allowance O/C $100K which have not won 1x or have never won 2 races or $100K claiming --- 3 YOs --- 6 Furlongs:
2) Gilcrease (5-2) broke his maiden on grass at Saratoga last year at 5 1/2 furlongs. After a layoff of six months, he returned with some good works but could not chase down the gate to wire winner. An easy work, followed by a good work since that effort. Complete outcross in first 5 generations.
8) Notah (20-1) broke his maiden in his second start of his career after running second in his first start last year. He returned in an O/C 75K but ran into Kingsbarn, who was using the race as a springboard to wiring the Louisiana Derby in his next start and finished a distant 4th as all three involved in the trifecta hugged the rail. Cuts back to six furlongs and deserves another chance. 3x4 to Seattle Slew, 3x5 to Mr Prospector, 4x4 to Northern Dancer, 4x5 to Raise A Native.
6) Frog Town (15-1) was claimed 3 start back for $40K by current connection. Was entered in a $100 O/C and finished 2nd beaten also 10 lengths by a horse that would finish 4th in the Gotham as the favorite and then win a $200K stakes race in his last start. Definitely will fit this one in my wagers. 4x4 to Mr Prospector, 5x5 to Secretariat.
4) Blue Light (7-2) won his only start after breaking sluggish and rushing to get lead by the quarter then on auto pilot while edging away in the stretch. A slow work followed by a good work and another leg stretching type work, an Asmussen trademark when he feels horse is fit. 5x4x5 to Mr Prospector.
My Risks: $5 Ex Box 2-8, $1 Tri Box 2-6-8, $.30 Super Box 2-4-6-8, $1 Super 8 with 2-4-6 with 2-4-6 with 2-4-6. Total Risk $29.20.
Race 11: Maiden Special Weight ---- Purse $100,000 --- 3 YOs ---- 1 1/8 Mile Turf:
12) Augustus Blue (30-1) has started 7 times with one second in his 3rd start back on the AWT. That's 7 lifetime starts and this horse has not seen the distance and surface he wants in the same race. His bloodlines is screaming distance grass and his 3 starts on that surface was at 6 1/2F, 1 Mile & 1 Mile, none of what I consider distance type races. He gets 1 1/8 mile in here, so this will be his first real chance to impact a race. Jockey Alex Achard has a grand total of 1 G1 SW and it came at this track on grass in a $750K stakes, so jockey is familiar with the turf course. This horse will probably go off at odds north of 50-1 and I will take those odds on any Point Of Entry progeny in distance grass races every time. And I will here too. 3x5 to Roberto, 5x5 to Buckpasser.
6) He's Got Swagger (5-1) has started twice and finished 2nd both times on FG heavy grass course. Trainer has given him 4 fairly easy works since his last start, most likely to keep bettors fooled and get good odds for him or his employees to take advantage of, if they choose to do so. These kinds of opportunity do not come along very often so take advantage while the getting is good. 4x4x5 to Mr Prospector.
4) My Boy Tony (10-1) has started once on the AWT and finished 3rd while setting a slow early pace. However, he will probably enjoy the switch to grass as that is where a majority of his bloodlines made a name for them shelves. Two very good works since his only start. Outcross in his first 5 generations.
11) Collier's Time (20-1) has started three times in his career, all on dirt, and has yet to hit the board. He will be receiving lasix for the first time. Most likely, trainer wants him near or on the lead early because he has not shown a good late kick yet and is actually bred for more speed than he has shown. He switches to grass for the first time also. Hard to tell if his works are useful because they came on Palm Meadows training tracks where fast times means very little on that lightning quick surface.
My Risks: $5 Ex Box 6-12, $1 Tri Box 4-6-12, $.30 Super 4-6-11-12, $1 Super 4-11-12 with 6 with 4-11-12 with 4-11-12. Total Risk: $29.20.
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2023.03.03 00:58 EMF911 What are some of the most unusual symbols and information to see on a racing form? Any stories about unusual circumstances?
2022.09.28 00:39 MrOpinionated22 Opening day at SA
On 9/30 Santa Anita opens to a 9-race card with a total of 65 runners an avg. of 7 per race. For an opening day after ~4-6 weeks off from Del Mar and a time when many horses are freshened up and trained a bit less than 4-6 weeks into a new meet. https://www.equibase.com/static/entry/SA093022USA-EQB.html
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2022.06.19 16:47 RtsSpot Churchill 2yo's 6.19
Churchill Downs R2Sun Jun 19Post Time: 1:14 PM ET
Dirt 4ô Furlongs2YOçMd Sp Wt 120kPurse: $120K
On May 26th, 8-Chiquita Mosca (8/1)
and 5-Mo Bonita (7/2)
ran against each other in the slop at this same course and distance. Mo Bonita
went off second in the betting to the entry that ran 1-2 and she finished fourth, giving a good effort to lead until late. Asmussen better with second time starters than first at 22%. I will use her underneath. Chiquita Mosca
finished fifth and was never a factor. Neither of the two has returned to a solid work tab, so I will pass. 1-Julia’s Chardonnay (10/1)
raced at Keeneland in early April and was pinched at the break, then bobbled as a result before chasing the leaders and getting a minor paycheck. She too has returned to pedestrian mornings. I will use her underneath though, as she only had three, 3f works prior to that race and given her performance, she is a battler. Bolt d’Oro
is now 5/11 with first time starters after Major Dude
took down the 6th at Monmouth yesterday. Today, his daughter 4-Bolts N Rainbows (10/1)
debuts and she had a good :48.2 from the gate and a recent 1:01.8 breeze. Trainer Chris Hartman
has a better touch with 2yo fillies than males, getting 14% from first time girls and 0% with boys. My choice is 6-Black Forest (4/1)
who went off at 24/1 in her debut on June 3rd because everyone knows her sire, Frosted
, is horrendous with first time starters. She put up a tough fight in her debut, going four wide into the stretch, getting the lead before tiring late. Sire Frosted
is 22% with second time starters and her siblings from her dam, Black Oak
, have all had dramatically increased Equibase figures in their second start.
Find the rest here - https://www.bettorsinsider.com/horse-racing/2022/06/19/rts-sunday-churchill-downs-picks-two-120k-msws-the-2nd-4th-feature-well-bred-horses-top-tier-trainers
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2022.05.04 16:43 Chains_and_feathers Kentucky Derby is this Saturday, let's play
As some of you know, I routinely bet on Thoroughbred horse racing, know a lot about it, consider it one of my part-time jobs, and have done "deals" here before where I donate winnings for needy drunks to buy booze.
How about some help/advice/suggestions? Derby is a 20 horse field; no way can even I predict entire outcome. I know some of the horses I will bet on, in the Derby and even more so other races at Churchill Downs on Friday and Saturday, since Derby is so unpredictable I will be focusing on other races for my own personal profit this weekend, where I know I can win.
I have multiple online betting accounts and can watch live videos of any horse race anywhere for free. People here who want money should tell me on which horses, in any race at Churchill Downs on Friday or Saturday, as long as field size is at least 9 horses and your picks are reasonable, I will let you know whether bet has been placed and how much. If I don't respond or just respond "no" that means I'm not willing to risk any money whatsoever on that particular bet. If you tell me to bet $100 on a horse to win, I might accept it but reduce amount as low as $1, or if it's an exotic, $.10 possibly, if I think the bet has almost no chance of profit, but will give it a shot if it's reasonable and give you any profit; any loss is on me.
I don't finalize bets until horses are loading into starting gate because a lot can be determined from body language then, so some bets are canceled last second, but have yet in my entire life to lose out on a winning bet from this. If I cancel a bet last second, horse definitely won't finish in top 3, no chance; something is wrong.
Friday Churchill Downs entries: https://www.equibase.com/static/entry/RaceCardIndexCD050622USA-EQB.html
Saturday Churchill Downs entries: https://www.equibase.com/static/entry/RaceCardIndexCD050722USA-EQB.html
Available wagers: win, place, show, exacta, trifecta, superfecta (NO multi-race wagers, rolling bets, multi-day wagers)
Good luck and give me some too! :)
Edit -- As with previous and most money giveaways here, please have post history and not shithead/asshole only stuff, thanks. I'm totally willing to help out good people only. :)
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2020.02.20 15:00 RtsSpot THURSDAY 2.20
For those of you keeping score at home, yesterday, I had $48 in bets, $98.30 in payoffs, for a 104% roi.
From Smartcap and posted today on bettorsinsider.com
1st $60K MSW for NY bred fillies and mares that are four and up going six furlongs
Best Last - #6 Midnight Banker (7/5) 69/73
Best Last Two - #2 Anydayisherday (6/1) 76/60
Best Overall Speed – Anydayisherday 62.6
Best Overall Class – Midnight Banker 63.9
Selection(s): #6 w/exacta 6/1-2
Notes: #3 & #4 are both first time starters whose trainers record is 0% each. The third place finisher of #6 returned to win going from Equibase fig of 73 to 87. The winner of that race has yet to run. #1 Enough Love (8/5) retains jockey Jose Lezcano, is running in its second race off two year layoff and showed good spring last race. This almost feels like his second race, so look for improvement.
2nd One mile, $32K Claiming Race for four year olds and up
Best Last - #3 Royal Albert Hall (7/5) 88/104, #5 Majid (6/1) 75/106
Best Last Two – Royal Albert Hall 105/70
Best Overall Speed - #4 Siding Spring (8/5) 98
Best Overall Class – Majid 111.7, Royal Albert Hall 107.1, Siding Spring 104.5
Selection(s) #4 – will be the lone speed
Notes: #3’s trainer, Rob Atras coming off a hot week going 5:2-1-1, is 21% with Manny Franco. #4 is trained by Antonio Arriaga 25% and is 41% with Carmouche.
3rd $80K Optional Claimer for three year olds foaled in New York going six furlongs
Best Last - #4 Notorious Flirt (9/5) 99/104
Best Last Two - #2 Hold My Call (8/1) 87.5/290
Best Overall Speed - #4 Notorious Flirt 83.8, #3 Power Up Paynter (7/2) 83.8
Best Overall Class - #6 Mission Wrapitup (10/1) 71
Selection(s) – Notorious Flirt
Notes: #6’s trainer, Bruce Brown and jockey Eric Cancel, 25% wins. Cancel, hot jockey last week scoring 21:9-0-4. Set the pace last out before tiring and is with the #1 Impetuous (8/5) are the lone speed.
4th $60K MSW for NY foaled four year olds and up going one mile
Best Last - #2 Moonlight Now (6/1) 83/82 #7 Dancers For Token (6/5) 81/83
Best Last Two – Dancers For Token 91/64
Best Overall Speed – Dancers For Token 80.1
Best Overall Class – Dancers For Token 78.5
Selection(s): Clever Fellow
Notes: choker Trevor McCarthy on #7 and has never raced for trainer Robbie Davis (0%). #2 retains leading rider Junior Alvarado. Solid works since last out. #6, trained by Chad Brown (6:3-0-1 last week) and ridden by Manny Franco (23%). Gets 2nd lasix and 1st gelding 1.26.19. Brown 30% with horses odd 6+ months.
5th $62.5K Optional Claimer going six furlongs for NW other than fillies and mares
Best Last - #3 Posse Needed (12/1) 118/78, #4 Our Circle Of Love (1/1) 81/107, #5 Slimey (6/1) 81/107
Best Last Two - #2 New Year’s Wish (8/5) 96/100, Our Circle Of Love 96/100
Best Overall Speed – Posse Needed 127.3
Best Overall Class – Our Circle Of Love 117.8
Selection(s): #4 Our Circle Of Love
Notes: #2 New Year’s Wish will take a lot of money as jockey/trainer combo hitting 28%. #4 has been beaten by a total of 23.5 lengths in its last two.
Best Last - #2 Cause Of Action (7/2) 90/36, #3 Charge Ahead (5/2) 57/81
Best Last Two - #3 Charge Ahead (5/2)
Best Overall Speed – Charge Ahead 86.5
Best Overall Class – Charge Ahead 123.8
Selection(s): #3 Charge Ahead
Notes: #2’s trainer, Chris Engelhart, listed on Brisnet as the hottest trainer 11:5-1-1. #4 coming off a won and first claim for Mike Maker (15%). 23% with Jorge Vargas. #3 second on dirt after shipping from Woodbine’s tapeta. Retains Junior and should get an improved trip. #6 Justice Of War (2/1) will take money due to Rice/Lezcano (28%) connection.
1st Smoke Alarm - take a shot on a 15-1er in his second time out. Trainer Dennis Manning 33% overall and Edgar Prado 21%. Had three sharp works since last, scored an Equibase 83 in his only race, 2nd best to the rest of the field. 2nd lasix and a great price...hopefully.
4th Holy Meister - Mark Casse trained and Edgar Zyas ridden (22% together), this Holy Bull gelding set the pace in a mile and an eighth last out before tiring. Today he gets a cutback in distance and should wire this group.
5th Range Of Motion - simple equation Chad Brown + Irad Jr. + turf race = V
6th R Kiss Em' Goodbye - Georgina Baxter 5:2-1-1 last week and 23% with Edgar Zayas (slumoing last week 12:0-0-3. Georgina 41% class down, 21% drt2trf, and 33% overall. Exacta box 4-5-1
9th R Prerogative - "R" horses by Georgina have been good to me of late, so why beat a dead horse?
OP - going with an odd angle today. Asmussen didn't win a race at OP all day and I'm betting his three entries - 5th Zing Zang, 8th Kiss The Girl, 9th Chateau Hope.
1st Monarchos Prayer - 1st off claim for Karl Broberg (29%). Broberg 29% with last winner, 28% in claiming races and 28% with jockey Colby Hernandez
4th Breezy Bee - Desormeaux still sizzlin' at FG hitting 9:3-3-1 last week. He's 21% with leading rider James Graham and 24% for the meet.
7th Steadytillready - 2nd out, 2nd lasix for trainer Jose Camejo. Thus far, only Camejo and jockey Declan Carroll 2-2. Just smoked a 5f gate work in 1:01.4. Will improve enough to win
5th Dreams Are Pazible - Cipriano (27%) mare retains jockey Joseph Ramos (31% together) who won in her last time. Cipriano 27% with last time winners and 20% moving horses up in class.
3rd Top Pick - jockey Denis Araujo 34% last 10 days takes the reins for this last out winner and first time claimer
6th Ravin' Maven - Runco/Bocachica 34%, Runco 48% with 1st timers, 48% with 1st lasix and 40% in msw
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2020.02.16 14:24 RtsSpot SUNDAY 2.16
1st Gallerio – being competitive in its last two waiver claiming race, this Claudio (31%) trained gelding gets class relief and retains hot jockey Alex Cintron (35% last 10 days). Look for a strong late kick.
3rd Sweet Talking Girl – Graham Motion trainee should take this one rather readily
5th Heatherly – taking choker Trevor and Jamie Ness 1st after the claim. I know, some may argue about McCarthy, however, if you check his record in races above allowance level, you’ll find it to be shit.
7th Life In Flash – Claudio is 20% with last out winners, 31% with Victor Rosales and this filly loves Laurel 6:4-1-0. Now, hopefully Victor gets her off that dead ass rail.
1st Remanded – it would be just like Cherie DeVaux to take down the heavy fave with this first timer. Cheri is 29% in this situation and 33% with Tyler Gafflione. The dam, which I place more importance on than the sire since she can only foal once a year, has had one foal who debuted at Mth for a strong 2nd in similar company, scoring an Equibase 77.
3rd Frenchmen Street – one of only two entrants for Saffie today and I’ll be betting both.
4th Shes One Mad Momma – I love betting horses like this. The trainer, in this case, Kathleen O’Connell, has been trying, in the last five, different distances, claiming levels and surfaces trying to find a spot where her horse can win. If not for being steadied inside while making a bold move last race, she’d have her most recent victory. Now, coming back to the exact same conditions, she will be very competitive in this and win it.
5th Watch both of Pletcher’s entries chase each other - Mrs. S and Cat Lady. Stablemates who have worked out together, routinely repeat the same in races and make for interesting results. I’ll work in the 2 & 5 in a tri bet
6th Act Like Artie – Mike Maker getting 2nd Lasix and first Irad. Had a sweet gate work on Feb 2nd going 5f in 1:01.8. 2nd time out, improved effort.
7th Bahamian Prince – George Weaver and Paco Lopez are 40% winners and this guy 4:2-0-1 for $41K, which bests the rest
8th Lemonist – Vettori Kin is going to put up one helluva fight and Lemonist will prevail. Add Prince Of Arabia for an exacta or tri box.
9th Enlisting – smokin’ hot trainer Gustavo Delgado (38% last 30 days) and jockey Jaramillo (35% together) have a live class dropper. Look for her to press the pace and take over at the turn.
10th Foolish Humor – going with Wesley Ward and Johnny V in this spot. 6 months on the bench for this filly after a fruitful two-year-old campaign. She’s had a steady diet of strong workouts and will be substantive here.
5th Americano – less than ten days ago, this Tiznow gelding comes right back to the same level. Last race, he ran into all kinds of traffic trouble in the stretch and still got up for 2nd.
7th Cpl Dionicio – Bennett trainee gets class relief from two weeks ago where he looked for racing room in the stretch and got hung. Should get an easier go today
1st Mutakaamil or Perceived – Chad Brown vs. Chad Brown? Take your pick.
2nd Bossy Bride – going with Rob Atras and Junior
4th Appletini – Leah Gyarmati 27% last 30 days, 23% when winning last and 23% with jockey Luis Cardenas. This will be a good test for her against Aqueduct heavyweights Linda Rice, Chris Engelhart, Scott lake et al.
6th Aunt Babe - With the pace setting up in front of her, I’m going to bet this lady. She is a strong closer, so, look for Jose Lezcano to come flying in the stretch and taking this.
7th I Love Jackson – Linda Rice, Jose Lezcano, won last, hitting peak form…should be a good bet.
8th Bank On Shea – Jason Servis/Jose Lezcano 33%. In its last race, a win, the runner up returned to improve his Equibase figure by 15%.
9th Hizaam – short price on this horse and there’s a reason – he’s a helluva lot better than the rest
The rest –
2nd Honeywhiskeynwine – Best Bet Of The Day and Best Price
3rd Carter Cat
4th Jus Dream Big
9th Kowboy’s Bobo
1st Spectacular Temper
3rd Hamazing Vision
4th Our Girl Abby
5th The Devils Daddy
6th Honor With Pride
7th Temple Bar
8th Hoptown Honey
6th Rolls Royce Deal
4th Vastly Deep
6th St James Place
Wong – 3-5-7-8-9
1st Bella D
3rd Too Much Smoke
4th J Z My Man
7th Shines Her Light
8th My Journey
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2020.02.06 04:31 RtsSpot THURSDAY THE 6TH
After going 5-3-1 and 9 oom’s, along with one dq, I managed to make a profit, albeit small.
5th Starting Point – winner of last and subsequently claimed by Linda Rice who is 44% when bringing horses back < 7 days.
7th Grumps Little Tots – Jason Servis/Jose Lezcano going 34% and this gelding comes right back at the same level as last where he got into a speed duel and eventually gave way. He’s rounding into shape and the winner of his last moved up in class, ran 2nd and banged out a 105 Equibase figure.
8th Hope I Can – back with a Linda Rice entry where she’s moving this filly down in class and she’ll get 2nd Lasix. Second time starter will make a big move forward this race.
8th Distilled Spirit – Claudio Gonzalez/Jevian Toledo hitting 36% winners together. This front runner gets a much needed turnback and drop in class.
6th Copper Fiddle – first off the claim for Karl Broberg (28%), 28% with jockey Colby Hernandez and 31% from route to sprint. Had a nice freshening on 1/31 and should shake loose on the lead and control the pace.
1st R U Royalty – Georgina BaxteLuca Panici winning at 56%. Baxter is 29% with first starts and the same with first Lasix. Keep an eye on the toteboard and if the odds start dropping, jump in.
3rd Higher Authority – turf, Irad and Jason Servis….came three wide last out and just missed. Second time Irad rides, so should be a W
5th Kahramani – Saffie claimed him on 10/18 for $10K, moved him to an OC and now that he’s out of claiming jail, this gelding is back down to a competing level. Two works since last race and you’ll get a good price on this.
7th Day – taking a shot on a 30/1 with trainer Delgado and Cristian Torres (30%). Did a 1:01.4 from the gate on 12/14, so speed and ability is not the question.
8th Cowboy Culture – Jorge Navarro sends out this $35K claimer
10th Keep It Up – great thought for guys my age….Saffie/Gafflione hitting 39% and Tyler 24% in route races.
1st Eleventeetime – Turfway shipper for Asmussen who’s had four solid works since being on the bench.
3rd Conqueror – Diodoro/Cohen tandem starting to heat up. Diodoro 25% off the bench, 26% route to sprint and given the front jump this guy has, it’s warramted
5th Mucho Macho Dan – 1st off the $7.5K claim for Diodoro at CD where he’s 32%.
6th Big name trainers in this with Norm McKnight, Peter Miller, D. Wayne Lukas, Jerry Hollandorfer, et al. I am going with, again, Diodoro’s first off the claim, Matrooh D
9th The Longest Night – Phil D’Amatos’ lone entry in a few days that shipped in from Dmr. This 4yo gelding out of Unbridled has excellent late kick and with todays’ speed, it should play right into its hooves.
7th Entry of Hey Negrita/AP Princess – Cipriano Contreras owns both and can readily control the pace of the race by pitting a rabbit with his closer – 1a.
2nd – Friend Of Autism - Jonathan Wong/Billy Antongeorgi were firing on all cylinders late last year. This extra time was well spent, getting a couple of extra workouts.
4th Oui Say No – could this be Kent Desormeaux’s first win at GG? Having a trainer like Steven Miyadi in your corner is a boost to the cause.
5th – Arno’s Mane Man – Wong/Hernandez going 48% with Wong hitting 25% on horses off 1-2 months. Nice work on 1.31 going 5f in 1:10.4
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2019.04.12 07:34 POWESHOW20 Using Clocker/Workout Reports
Clocker Reports/Workout Reports
What is a Clocker Report/Workout Report? Coaches always say that the better you perform in practice, the better you perform in games. If you find this to be true (and you sure as shit should) then you’ve come to the right place. Each morning, across the nation, thousands of horses workout. That’s what athletes do, right? They work out. Coaches work to implement a game plan and get their players in peak condition for their next competition, so too do horse trainers. Trainers utilize workouts to get conditioning and sometimes work on utilizing new tactics such as teaching horses how to rate. Following up on the performance in the practice idea, if a horse is working out very well, more than likely the horse is ready to run a big race. If a horse is working out sluggishly, it’s not very likely that’s they’re going to revert to winning form come race day. This is where clockers come in! Clockers are “professionals” (whatever that is in this game) that watch every horse workout in the morning and assign a grade to the workout along with a brief summary of the workout. Think of it as having a scout inside of a basketball practice: would you put money on a team if the star player was coming off of an injury and was still looking hobbled in practice? What if the player was returning from injury and throwing down 360 Isaiah Rider East Bay Funk Dunks in practice? Would either of these scenarios persuade your bet one way or another? That’s where clocker reports come in!
What is a good grade? It depends on the class of the race. An MC20 running a C+ work while the rest of their field running C works might stand out, whereas a G1 sprinter running an A- work while the rest of their competition is only running B- and B works certainly stands out. What you should be looking for is standouts in each race, more on that later.
How important are the times? I do not use them.
What is an “M” work? Maintenance work. Do not upgrade or downgrade due to an M work. If anything, it might be a slight upgrade as the trainer doesn’t see a need to vigorously work the horse out.
What should I glean from the description? Often the descriptions will indicate what to expect – you’ll get notes for dirt horses that the clockers feel would be better on the turf and vice versa. You’ll get notes on who the running mate was, this can be VERY helpful. What if a maiden is hanging in there with a proven stakes winner? Probably worth a bet, right? Talks of early speed or slow breaks, improving or declining form, perhaps a horse is returning to the races and isn’t in peak physical condition yet? The notes can be very helpful and can really help differentiate between “A” horses and horses that don’t need to be included on your tickets.
Watch out for: - Turf horses training on the dirt - Dates of workouts. The most recent one is obviously the most relevant, but how recently is that entry? - Off tracks
What are the most useful applications? - Unraced maidens - Maidens. Period. - Horses coming off layoffs - Shippers - All others… to an extent.
How I use clocker reports: Everybody handicaps differently. The way that I use clocker reports may not be exactly the way that you use clocker reports. My way isn’t the right way, only one way – keep that in mind. The first thing I do is look at the grades of horses in a race. Are there any outliers? 80% of the time these reports will not tell you anything, but a 20% edge in THIS game is absolutely monstrous. A B- works typically doesn’t tell you much aside from “handicap as normal, you can’t eliminate or elevate this horse based upon works.” Obviously this changes a bit if all of the other horses in the field are running “C” works. After looking at the grades I move to the writeups of the works and see if there is any useful information that can be gleaned. Sometimes I’ll look at the running mate and then pull up equibase to see what that horse has accomplished. Again, if we have a maiden running with allowance level horses in the AM, we might have a horse worth playing. I never look at times, I do try to view the surface, I definitely make sure the work was recent. I will elevate or demote a horse based upon their workouts. In conjunction with thorographs, there is no greater feeling of power in handicapping.
Let me know if you have any questions!
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2018.12.04 14:57 tamari_almonds Upcoming dirt route notifications?
Is there a service that will let you know of all dirt routes happening that day or the next day? I could go through equibase and look at each track, but with the annoying aspects of their site it's not as quick as I'd like it to be. IE, I'm about to click on the day's entries for a track.. Equibase: "Nope, we're gonna slide the whole page to the left to show you this ad just before you click the link"
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2018.08.18 10:27 hodsct59 My Picks For Saratoga August 18, 2018.
I have identified some horses that I am willing to take a chance on Saturday at Saratoga, provided that the track is not off. This seems to be my biggest problem thus for this year as the weather forecast and even equibase has been either wrong or ahead of the actual weather that as occurred almost weekly. At some tracks, a little moisture will not affect the outcome that much, but at Saratoga, it will make a world of difference and if you do not adjust, you will struggle. And while I have hit some nice paying races on off tracks, I tend to get more consistency on fast and firm surfaces. So let's begin.
1st Race: Maiden Claiming $40,000--- 1 1/16 Mile Inner Turf--- 3 YO & Up--- Purse $45,000.
If this race stays on grass, my choice to WP will be 11)Letterman(5-1). He has made one lifetime start, broke last, was ranked indicating he was intimidated by seeing other horses around him, but still made a move into contention behind a fast pace before tiring in the stretch. Overall, not a bad race and a good learning experience. His trainer took his time to find another spot for a horse the owner paid $250,000 for and decided to enter him in a claiming race for $40,000. However, both his 2nd start and the softer spot should help him get a better break and make him more competitive. Trainers sometimes will bluff on a horse's potential, in order to get a win for a nice purse. He has bloodlines that is fancy by a lot of breeders and he is bred to excel on grass.
4)Telecommunication(10-1) will be my choice to complete the exacta. He, too, has made one lifetime start last year against Maraud and brow slowly, then went wide into the stretch and failed to make up any ground. After a break of almost a year, back to back solid works and a drop into the claiming ranks, he should be ready to display the front running speed he is bred for. a $42,000 yearling purchase, his sire, Data Link, is a son of major grass influence War Front. Data Link biggest win came in the G1 Maker's 46 Mile S in 2011, but he also ran 2nd in that same race in 2012 to Wise Dan, Champion Older Grass Horse that year. His broodmare sire, Mizzen Mast, started his career in France, ran 2nd in the G1 Grand Prix De Paris and after 2 failed attempts in major grass races in the U.S. he finished his career by winning the G1 Malibu S and G2 Strub S on Santa Anita dirt track. Should show front running speed against these.
2)Azzedine(5-2) has made 5 starts and finished 2nd in three of them. After running an even race for $75000 maiden claimers, his trainer, Chad Brown, has decided to give him a drop of several class levels to try to get him in the winners column. His slightly off the pace style fits well against these. A $336,000 disperal 2 YO purchase, he has yet to meet expectations.
While several of these have not performed anywhere near the expectations of their purchase price, 10)Arch Of The Diver, has to be the one owners have given up on. Off almost two years, apparently to try as a stallion, he has been gelded and returned to training. Simply trying to recoup as much money of his $300,000 purchase price as they can get back. Will not play this one at all, on grass or dirt.
2nd Race: Maiden Special Weight--- 2 YOs--- 1 1/16 Mile Turf--- Purse $85,000.
I will bet the 6)Southern Bridge(4-1) to WP. A $70,000 yearling purchase, he has made one start on grass where he broke near the back and basically ran an even race, though he passed a few horses on a turf course rated firm, but was obviously yielding or good at best. You can tell by how slow the pace was and the front runner went wire to wire.
11)My America(10-1) will be my choice to complete my exacta box. A buyback by owners because the reserve was not met at $335,000, they decided to race the horse instead. His sire is Medaglia D'Oro but his dam Reaching is a daughter of Dansili, a sire who has made his presence felt in the BC turf races through his daughters. Maryjinsky, her dam, is a 1/2 sister to Better Than Honour, the dam of Belmont S winners Rags To Riches & Jazil. My America has one start, an off the turf sprint where he ran an even race. I will discard that race because it was much too short for his bloodlines and also this one will perform better on grass.
This race is stacked with well bred horses but which ones will show front running speed is anyone guess. That said, I will use 3)Vineyard Sound(15-1) and box him in my trifecta. His sire, Stormy Atlantic is a son of Storm Cat and his best foals shows front running speed on grass in top class. Vineyard Sound's broodmare sire, Sultry Song, was a multiple G1 stakes winner on dirt but was also G1 stakes placed in the Secretariat S on grass when third, beaten 2 heads for the win.
Another to consider is 5)Ian Glass(10-1), another first time starter who is throwing decent works for his debut. His sire, Hard Spun, came close to stealing the Ky Derby before running 2nd against Street Sense and his sire, Danzig, is known for siring speedy grass runners, too. His broodmare sire is Galileo, top distance grass horse in the world today. His trainer and owner just upset the G1 Secretariat last weekend with 38-1 shot Carrick. However, instead of crossing with Danzig in his fourth generation on his dam side, he crosses with Northern Dancer, through 3/4 brothers Sadler's Wells & Nureyev. If I decide to bet a super, this one will be in my box.
3rd Race: Claiming $50,000--- 3 YOs & Up--- 7 Furlongs--- Purse $70,000.
I will make a small wager on the 3)Fundy's Tide(15-1) to WP. He is a need the lead type to perform his best and he should get the lead against these. And it is very difficult to catch a front running type that can sprint clear early then slow the pace down and have something left for the stretch. His last race was simply to far for his bloodlines and he will welcome the cut back to a more reasonable distance.
2)Sir Ballantine(10-1) will be my choice for an exacta box. He has never ran under a mile but his pedigree suggests that will be his best distance. His dam, Wind Flow won 5 of 7 lifetime starts, including three stakes in So. California, flashing 109 and change times but did not win past 6 1/2 furlongs and was not even tried past 7 furlongs. This owner paid $210,000 for this horse as a 2 YO and watched while McPeek was over zealous with this horse. He finally turned the horse over to another trainer four starts back and the horse responded with back to back wins at one mile. But his last two was too long and his trainer looks like he finally realized that. Even his works is screaming sprinter and has for a while. Good chance play against these, especially across the board.
I will use the 6)Daddy D T(9-2) in my tri box. He should be the beneficiary of a lot of cheap speed who should tire and come running late but should sit close enough early to make it count.
4th Race: Maiden Special Weight--- 2 YOs--- 6 Furlongs--- Purse $85,000.
My bet to WP will go on 8)Cromwell Avenue(12-1). A $210,000 2 YO purchase, his sire, Flashback is a son of Tapit who beat Golden Cents in the G2 San Felipe and then ran second to that rival in the G1 Santa Anita Derby. His broodmare sire, Wolf Power, was a South African champion grandson of Round Table but has many foals to race in the U.S. and most are blazing speed that is difficult to run down. He has one start but he did not break very well, so I will give him another chance, especially since his 2 works since are good.
4)Endorsed(6-1) will be my choice for my exacta box. His sire is Medaglia D'Oro and his dam is Dance Card, a G1 stakes winning daughter of Tapit, whose last start was a fast closing third to Groupie Doll(2 time winner of BC Filly Sprint) and Judy The Beauty(who returned in 2014 to win the BC Filly Sprint). There is another colt in this race that is bred exactly on the same sire & broodmare sire line(trained by Pletcher) and his dam has a similar record to the dam of this horse. While this colt was retained for racing by his breeders, the Pletcher colt was purchased for $320,000 by his owners.
My pick to complete my tri box will be 1)Pointer View(12-1). His sire is Paynter, a son of Awesome Again out of a full sister to Tiznow. His broodmare sire, Indian Ocean, won three of five lifetime starts with 2 thirds and Surf Cat beat him both times and they both are grandsons of Storm Cat. When he broke his maiden at 6 1/2 furlongs, he ran a 115 flat while in hand the last part. He was purchased as a 2 YO for $200,000 after bringing $80,000 as a yearling.
7)Ahead Of Plan(5-2) will be my 4th choice if I decide to box a super. He was purchased for $475,000 at a 2 YO in training sale earlier this year. He has the works and bloodlines to win this, though.
5th Race: Claiming $40,000--- 3 YO Fillies--- 6 Furlongs--- Purse $64,000.
My pick to win will be 5)Shape Shifter(7-2). She pressed a fast pace in her last in the slop,and got caught late at 3-5. Penn National favors late runners when the pace is contested, even on off tracks, unlike Saratoga. Pino, her trainer, wins at 21% of his lifetime starts and Irad Ortiz Jr. has the mount. I look for her to draw off as she chooses against these but do not expect good odds, as there will be little.
My pick to complete my exacta box will be 8)Simona(15-1). She will sit a few lengths off the early pace but should be able to get by most of the tiring speed to finish 2nd. She was claimed out of her last two starts and now James Ryerson takes over as trainer. While Ryerson best training days are in the past, he will always be known for preparing Unbridled's Song to win the BC Juvenile in his third lifetime start and would win the Fla Derby and Wood Memorial under his tutelage at 3. So he can get a horse ready and her work since her last is a step in the right direction.
4)Richie'slilwildcat(3-1) will be my choice for 3rd. She has a lot of front running speed which is always dangerous at Saratoga but she tires late with or without pressure. And she will feel the pressure today as these are better speed that what she is accustomed to running against but should hold third in this weak field.
6th Race: Maiden Special Weight--- 2 YOs--- 6 Furlongs--- Purse $85,000.
My pick to WP is 4)Kentucky Wildcat(12-1). He is a homebred which simply means the breeder did not sell him, but kept him for racing and breeding purposes later. His sire is Tapit and his dam, Better Lucky, ran 2nd in the 2014 BC Filly Sprint in her last start to Judy The Beauty. However, she is a multiple G1 winning daughter of Ghostzapper. While her works could be better if the trainer wants to tip others, her pedigree and the fact she has work steadily is good enough for me to take a chance on.
3)Most Mischief(10-1) will be my choice to complete my exacta box. His sire, Into Mischief, is a 1/2 brother to Beholder and a top sire in the game today. His broodmare sire, Elusive Quality, sired several speedy types including Smarty Jones(winner of the Ky Derby & Preakness S) and Raven's Pass(winner of the BC Classic). Most Mischief has a 1/2 sister that was trained by this trainer and after taking a few starts to mature, became a SW of close to $300,000. He has started twice and finished third both times, both in good times. He also sports one of the best money making angles in the game and that is finishing 3rd in his last while beaten more than 2 lengths by both the winner & runner-up. Dangerous at solid odds.
O am going to go out on a limb and pick 10)Quick Entry (12-1) to include in my tri box. His sire, Point Of Entry, was a multiple G1 grass winning son of Dynaformer, who is best remembered as sire of ill fated Ky Derby winner Barbaro and Ky Derby 3rd Perfect Drift. Point Of Entry's dam is a daughter of Seeking The Gold. Quick Entry's broodmare sire is Cape Town, another son of Seeking The Gold. Hennessy is sire of his 2nd dam and he is best known as grandsire of Scat Daddy. His last work signals he is ready to win early and while his trainer wins with 6 % of his first time starters, he is dangerous to leave out of any exotic bets.
I will box a small super by including the 2)Code Of Honor(6-1). While Shug is usually not interested in asking his horses to win in their first start, I have to included him because Will Farish is his owner and breeder. He put this horse in a sale but his reserve was not met, so he decided to race him. He tried to sale another horse years ago with the same reserve and there were no takers. The horse name? Sunday Silence who went on to win the Ky Derby, Preakness, and BC Classic as a 3 YO and was leading sire every year in Japan during his stallion career. Code Of Honor's sire is Noble Mission, a multiple G1 winning full brother to Frankel. His dam, Reunited, won the G3 Thoroughbred Club Of America S at 7 furlongs for her only graded stakes win. I will wait until placing any across the board money on this horse, but only because Shug is more interested in racing experience than asking a horse for too much too soon.
7th Race: Allowance--- 3 YOs & Up Fillies Restricted To NY Bred ----N/W 1 Other Than Maiden, Claiming Or Starter Or Which Have Never Won 2 Races--- One Mile Turf-- Purse $77,000.
1)Under Suspicion(12-1) is who I will bet to WP. She is making her first start on grass. Her sire, Friend Or Foe, is a son of A.P. Indy's son Friends Lake and his dam is a daughter of Unbridled. Friend Or Foe won 2 NY Bred Stakes and the Easy Goer S but also gave a good account of himself in several G1 stakes races, including the Travers, Whitney S and the Cigar Mile H. Under Suspicion's dam, Misty Rosette, is a 3/4 sister to Littleprincessemma, the dam of TC winner American Pharoah. Misty Rosette won 4 of 8 lifetime starts including 3 stakes races and ran 3rd in the G1 Test S and the G2 Forward Gal S. While none of this points to whether she will like the grass, there are major grass influence dotted throughout her pedigree that suggest she will. My choice in a weak field.
4)Way Smart(7-2) will be my pick to complete my exacta box. She should be ready to win and move on to the next set of conditions as this is her fourth start this year. With a solid work since her last, and bloodlines to match, she will be a huge disappointment if she does not win in this spot. A key in the horizontals, IMO.
3)Hollywood Cat(3-1) is my choice to complete the tri box. She is the only one with enough proven bloodlines to knock out my 2nd choice. Her sire Courageous Cat was a G1 winner on grass and her broodmare sire, Cryptoclearance, is the grandsire of Candy Ride.
8th Race: Lake Placid S(Grade 2)--- 3 YOs Fillies--- 1 1/8 Miles Turf--- Purse $300,000.
i will bet the 3)Capla Temptress(6-1) to WP. The expected favorite beat her in last year's BC Juvenile Fillies Turf at 1 mile on grass but she steadied early and that gave the winner all the cushion she needed. Capla Temptress has made two starts since and both came this year. In her first start, she just missed winning the G1 Poule D'Essai Des Pouliches(Fr 1,000 Guineas) that is their first race in their TC series for fillies. Then shipped back to Belmont, she finished 7th beaten almost 4 lengths in the G1 Belmont Oaks but was not likely to beat the winner on that day. Her sire, Lope De Vega and grandsire Shamardal(from first crop of Giant's Causeway) each won the first two legs of the French TC but neither attempted to complete the sweep in the St Leger at 1 3/4 miles. Now transferred to Mott's barn and with 2 good works since, she will be tough to deny.
2)Daddy Is A Legend(4-1) will be my choice to complete my exacta box. While she has been beaten by the expected favorite in all three meetings between these, she now is going a distance she should enjoy more than the choice will. Her sire is Scat Daddy, a top grass sire. Her broodmare sire, Benchmark, is a 1/2 brother to multiple G1 distance grass winner, Tranquility Lake. Their dam is a daughter of Danzig, another top influence on grass. Nice work since her last indicates she is ready to turn the tables on the favorite.
7)Andina Del Sur(15-1) will be my choice to complete my tri box. The 1)Thewayiam has beaten her twice but is was Andina Sel Sur first and second start against winners and Thewayiam also had an edge in condition. Now the edge in condition belongs to this one. I expect an improved race against these as she is entering her fourth race since she was in peak form. While I do not believe she can beat my top two choices, she has the bloodlines to be a factor. Her sire is Giant's Causeway and her broodmare sire is Singspiel, a son of BC Turf winner In The Wings(son of Sadler's Wells)and 1/2 brother to Rahy(sire of Giant's Causeway's dam). Singspiel also ran 2nd in the BC Turf in his only U.S. start after winning the G1 Canadian International in his only start in that country.
I actually like Chad Brown's other entry over the favorite at this distance but I also think it is a little further than either will do their best in.
9th Race: Alabama S(Grade 1)--- 3 YO Fillies--- 1 1/4 Miles--- Purse $600,000.
I am betting 1)Piedi Bianchi(15-1) to WP. Though I normally bet against Pletcher with 3 YOs and up after June of their 3 Yo season unless they drop significantly in class, I will bet this one because he had the horse for one start, so he hasn't had the time to screw up the horse yet. With her bloodlines and close finishes in thee G1s, she is worth taking a shot with. She has one start this year, a sprint, where she finished third almost 2 months ago. Her sire, Overanalyze, scored his e biggest graded stakes win at 1 1/8 mile and the only time he tried 1 1/4 miles was the Ky Derby, where he was sandwiched turning into the stretch while making a solid move. Her broodmare sire, Tactical Cat, scored his biggest win in the 1 1/16 mile G1 Hollywood Futurity at 2.
8)Talk Veuve To Me(5-2) will be my choice to complete my exacta box. She has the bloodlines to run as far as asked, especially on her dam's side. They will have to run her down and she is still improving. No Monomoy Girl in here that can go with her early.
My choice to complete my tri box will be 7)Coach Rocks(15-1). I believe they are sending her for the lead but would do better if they would let her rate and make one serious run in the stretch. Oxbow perform his best while on the lead but Coach Rocks female family was strictly distance oriented where most of them sat near the back of longer races and made a strong run in the stretch. If they chose to push her in this race, I think she has no shot to even hit the board, but if they let her relax, she could crash the exacta. She has proven she will rate on several occasions and those happen to be her best races.
I will add the 3)Midnight Bisou(7-5) and box a small super. She is the class of this field but now she is running a distance where bloodlines kicks in and her pedigree shows a lot of mid distance influences but very little classic distance influences. For this reason, I think she is beatable, especially at low odds which she will be.
10th Race: Claiming $25,000--- 3 YOs & Up--- 1 Mile Turf---- Purse $50,000'
I am betting the 6)Bitumen(12-1) to WP. This will be his first start on grass. However, his sire, Mineshaft, is a multiple G1 winner on dirt and he was Horse Of The Year as a 4 YO. His dam, Kobla Cat, is a 1/2 sister to Quality Road. Her sire, Tale Of The Cat, is sire of Gio Ponti, a multiple G1 winner on grass from 1 mile to 1 1/4 mile. Jose Ortiz has been named to ride him and while I am not familar with this horse's trainer, the horse has to many positive to ignore. Also, the trainer is removing the blinkers, apparently to get him to rate and to not be over anxious to go too early.
2)Italian Charm(7-2) will be my choice to complete my exacta box. He has ran third 4 times in six starts this year and now drops several levels in class, from an O/C $40000 to 25,000 claiming. He tends to rate a few lengths off the pace and the added weight should assure he will this time too.
7)Indebted(20-1) will be my choice to complete the tri. Throw out his last because he has ran on dirt twice in off the turf races and did nothing in both. Then if you look where his record states he has ran 3 times at this distance and won once, he really only ran once at the mile distance. The other 2 times were at 7 1/2 furlongs on grass, including breaking his maiden in his first lifetime start. The other was his 2nd start this year and he was in lrss than peak shape. His only race at a mile was at the Meadowlands where he drew the far outside which is exactly like drawing the rail in turf sprints at Saratoga. Not likely to happen. Now his bloodlines suggests one mile on grass will be his best distance. His sire, Malibu Moon's 1/2 brother, Temple City, was a graded stakes winner at 1 mile on grass and his best daughter, Miss Temple City , was a G1 winner at one mile. His broodmare sire, Silver Hawk, won 2 graded stakes at 7 furlongs in Europe. He is making his fifth start this year including both dirt races on a surface he despises and he will be huge odds., but an excellent spot play in this race. Maragh has taken the mount and was making a name for himself in 2014 when he got trampled while riding Wicked Strong and the horse clipped heels when Tonalist veered into his path in a move most believed was an intentional by that horse's jockey and severely injured Maragh. While his determination has led him this far back, he still is not where he was at that point.
These are my picks for Saratoga August 18. While I have not had the best of years handicapping, it is only a matter of time before I explode and get hot. May not be today but it will not be much longer. I feel I am handicapping as good as I ever have, but the luck has gone against me more times than not this year.
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2018.05.21 21:05 hodsct59 Newcomers-- Where Do You Start?-- A Beginner's Guide
This post is to help newcomers get a better feel of the game and give them ideas of where to start. When I was new, I was in the same boat and ask many questions from other handicappers. Using that information helped me get better quicker but it also led me down many roads of confusion. What works for many handicappers may not work for the next. Everyone processes information differently and can look at the same situation, but come up with very different answers. And that is the beauty of playing the horses. Horse racing has a way of leveling the playing fields whether you are college educated or a high school dropout. This was especially true before the addition of exotic wagering, but the only way exotic wagering helps someone with a college education more, is they usually have more money to "waste" and can spread more, increasing their chances of winning(much like the Powerball & Mega Millions games).
First of all, you must be willing to learn. Horse racing is a tough game to crack fairly consistent and you will have many more losing days than winning days. I am not talking about hitting a race or two, but rather you will leave the races on most days with less money than you took in. I have seen a lot of handicappers that say they are interested in betting, but put little effort into what it takes to make them better. I guess they decide to rely on luck like the lotteries or others help, but that is the best way to lose(by not being prepared) and you will struggle for years going this route.
There are many different ways to come up with winners and exotic bets such as betting the best jockeys, trainers, owners, speed figures, breeding, favorite post position number, horse's name, but there is only one way to truly understand and learn the game. That is with the daily racing form or a knockoff like equibase, track masters and several others. They all provide basically the same information, but some are more clutter than others and gives stats that will not be very useful. That is why I personally prefer the daily racing form. They give you a ton of information but also seems to realize when the stats goes too far and will not really help anyone. There are tutorials on the internet that explains what each symbol, number, stat and call means and these are free to everyone. (http://www1.drf.com/help/help_howto.html
). There is a wealth of information on this site including a tutorial where they show one horse past performance(exactly the way you see each horse in the form) and you can click on any symbol, number, etc and it will explain in detail what these means. They do ask you to sign up(like most web sites) but it is not to charge you anything but to add you to their email list where they will send you products they have for sale that you may be interested in, especially on big racing days. There is never no obligation to buy, simply a website trying to make money in products they believe in. If you don't want the product, simply trash it or ignore it. You won't be charged unless you agreed to purchase it(and then only after you give them your CC # or other method of payment). I look at it this way. They have so much knowledge that can benefit you for free, so why not take advantage of it?
Next, after you learn the basic of how to read the daily racing form, you will need to decide which track(s) you are interested in learning about. I used to recommend a local track because information used to be easier to obtain from the track closest to you. But since the rise of the internet, you can obtain equal information of any track you choose. You are going to want to learn everything you can about one track at a time. Who are the leading trainers? Jockeys? Type of races each perform best in? Track conditions? Track Bias? Trying to learn many different tracks at once is the easiest way to become lost while handicapping, especially when you are first starting out. I still have trouble remembering how each track is set up and I have been handicapping weekly for more than 40 years. And you will have to recheck each track every year or two, because tracks will resurface their dirt tracks every few years and it can change the way the track plays.
Bias? This is often one of the most overused and misunderstood piece of information on the market today. A lot of handicappers thinks horses that wins from the same post race after race is a definite bias. While it can be, it is more often the results of a racing secretary being a good handicapper and placing horses he thinks will win in the same post. Only a few of the top races post positions are actually drawn, the rest are assigned to their post position by each racing secretary at the track where he writes the conditions of every race, also. You can find this information in every track's program(for sale the day before any racing day at that track), and is usually located in the front of the program in small print(how many actually reads this).
Most bias will be short lived, consisting of a few weeks and/or months. Some are easy to identify but others are very difficult to see. And most bias will not prevent a horse from winning, but it will make it more difficult for the best horse to win. He has to be much the best and then the trainer runs a risk of knocking a good horse off form. It is easier to get a horse into shape to perform his best than it is to maintain that fitness through a series of hard fought wins.
Off tracks is the most common condition where a temporary bias will show up. Almost all sloppy tracks will favor speed and becomes more profound if the speed horse can get near the rail. This was true last week at Pimlico but I missed a $6000 super because I ignored the speed that was going to have the rail because I thought two just to her outside would grabbed the early lead and get the rail. The horse I thought would show the way steadied at the start when another came over into her path and ended up last early. She moved away from the rail to start her rally because the rail was clogged and made up ground on everyone but the winner who was long gone while enjoying the best part of the track. The only three horses I bet ran 2nd, 3rd, and 4th(2nd & 3rd in the exacta, also). The heavy favorite in this race was stuck outside throughout and never picked up her feet.
I was reading all day Saturday how the outside was the place to be, but in actuality, the inside was really the place to be. Sure a couple of horses won while off the rail but only one instance did the horse actually overcome the bias. The others simply were the best horse entered in their races and there were no speed that was in shape enough to upset. When the Preakness rolled around, it had stop raining and trainers and/or jockeys decided the middle of the track would be faster than the rail, something I mentioned in another post. But then again no one tried the rail in that race, so it could have still been better to be there.
While everyone has a different opinion of what bias appears, misjudging or ignoring a true bias will turn your betting into long days or weeks of losing. Until you can actually identify a bias, it is better to save your money for another day. It will save you a ton of money and the track you learn on will almost always revert back to its old self as long as the surface is not replaced. Then it is like starting over, but with more knowledge to help you obtain positive results quicker.
Trainers? I have always suggested that trainers hold the key to the outcome of almost every race. There are a few that are masters in planning and setting their horses up for winning races. These trainers will win between 20-30% of the time on a fairly consistent basis. But that means they will still lose 3 out of 4 races they enter a horse. And the main reason their win percentages are this high is because owners see how they handle their horses and they want to win the big races as much as anyone, so they will usually get their pick of horses they think might excel on the track.
Whichever track I am betting, I want to learn as much as possible about every trainer that wins 10% of his races or more, especially if his horses runs in the money(1st,2nd, 3rd) a lot(around 40% or more). This indicates a trainer knows exactly what he is doing and usually has his horses ready to win but someone entered is just slightly better that day. You will cash a lot of tickets that will pay solid and can make your weekend or even month simply by nailing a couple of exactas.
Jockeys is another good angle to learn about. The top jockeys earned their reputation simply by winning races. But often it is more the jockey's agents that secures these mounts for the jockeys by hustling every trainer that they can find with a good horse. The top jockeys, like trainers, wins on between 20-30% of their mounts, but they make just as many mistakes as a lesser known jockey. Where a top jockey can rectify his mistake a few races later, a lesser known jockey may have to wait days or even weeks to get his chance. If an average jockey wins with 12% of his mounts or more and has a decent in the money percentage(1st, 2nd, 3rd), you can catch him many times when he is overlooked and score big.
Track conditions, turns and surfaces are probably the most important part of betting thoroughbreds. The turns at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans has the sharpest turns I have ever seen and I have been to almost all U.S. tracks at least once. They also have the second longest stretch in the U.S, behind only Belmont Park in New York. Knowing each track set-up can help immensely in determining winners. Track conditions are very important. Tracks that are fast will play different than when that same track is sloppy or muddy. While most off tracks will favor front runners and the inside, you will only know for sure by looking at replays and/or the trackman's comments on result charts. Santa Anita has always favored speed on fast tracks but it is a mistake to throw out late runners when the track is off.
And when horses switches surfaces, handicappers tends to bet horse that did well on the surface he is switching from. A few will transform that ability successfully, but most horses that struggles on one surface will come alive on the other(that is, if the trainer can get him ready). Until the late 1980's, all U.S. horses were required to break their maiden on dirt and would not be allowed to entered any grass races until then. But as grass racing popularity grew, tracks were forced to change that rule. Horses that was taking 10-15 races to break their maiden on dirt was often finding instant success when switched to grass.
And, BTW, when I first started, the daily racing form gave you two numbers after each horses race that were considered speed figures and track variant(how slow or fast the track was that day) such as 88-12. This indicates the horse ran 2 2/5(or 12/5, 100-12) off the track record and the track variant(12) is the average all winning horses ran off the track record on that day. Daily racing forms still list these two numbers, but all knockoff forms have replaced them with Beyers or their own figures. I don't know which one is more accurate, but I do know using the daily racing forms figures has pointed to a lot more winners, for me personally. Beyers and Equibase numbers only points me to the favorite, but I can look at the form and decide for myself who will be the favorite 99% of the time.
While this post will not help you become instant winners, it can be a huge help in knowing where to start. But your own research and the ability to learn and interpret correctly will be the reason you can turn into a successful handicapper or if you fail to get better. Since there are so many components in every race, it will take years and many hours of research to make you successful. Is it worth the effort? IMO, absolutely. Nowhere else will you find an opportunity to make thousands in a few hours of hard work using your own opinions and not relying on luck to secure your future than horse racing betting( or ownership, but that is a totally different avenue and takes deep pockets to succeed).
Also, for results and entries, I use Equibase and have for many years for free, though I have never signed up. If you go to www.equibase.com
website, you will see tabs across the top of the page. Hover over results and it will drop down two tabs(summary results and full chart results). Always click on summary results, as these are free for thirty days, and you will also find them much more useful than full charts results which there is a fee that can escalate quickly. If you want to find out which horses or tracks are running in the next few days, the entries tab is next to the results tab on the front page of Equibase. Simply click on entries and it will drop down a screen that shows every thoroughbred track and the dates they are scheduled to run. Scroll down and find the track you are interested in, they hover over and click the date you are interested in. It will give you the entries for every race at that track that day in post position order.
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2017.09.07 18:59 kocomma Woodbine Jackpot Hi-5 Carryover = $1.3MM
Woodbine Jackpot Hi-5 Carryover
Alright all you wagering fans! The Woodbine Jackpot Hi-5 is now at $1,332,741.43 You read that right, it's 1.3 million! You could literally bet .20 cents, and walk away a millionaire.. Not a bad deal!
With all the added attention of a big payout, I'm sure most combinations will be taken so the chance of a single winner will be pretty low leading up to Sunday, September 10th....
Here's the awesome part: If there is no jackpot payout by Sunday, September 10th, the jackpot will be FROZEN
From the website: The Woodbine Jackpot Hi-5 will be frozen
after Sunday, September 10th
. It will be offered as a mandatory payout
on Saturday, September 16th
- Woodbine Mile!
I took a shot at it the other day and was off by one number. The payout was over $27K!
So keep it on your rader and toss .20 at it... You never know!
No races Friday due to tragic accident
Entries for Sept 8: HERE
Entries for Sept 9: HERE
Entries for Sept 10: HERE
Update: $1.425MM carryover for the mandatory payout... the pool could expand to >$2MM
Final edit: Final pool was over $3million.
Direct link to chart
Favorite finished outside of Top 5. 2nd Favorite won (3-1) 3rd favorite 2nd (6-1) 6th favorite 3rd (9-1) 4th favorite 4th (7-1) 2nd longestest shot in the field finished 5th (68-1)
Payoff: $4,319.61 (roughly 750 winning .20 bets won)
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2017.07.27 16:58 sixfourthree App for pedigree research?
This is a shot in the dark here, but does anyone know of an app that shows the entries of a race along with their full pedigree (or 5 generations). I can't stand using the browser on my phone to do this since it often involves load times/ jumping around from different tabs and typing on a phone is a pain in the ass. I'm using this equibase app but that only gives me the standard sire, dam, broodmare sire. Which I understand is the most important but sometimes I like to see what lines these horses come from if I don't recognize a name.
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2017.06.16 18:27 kocomma Breeding Bets for the Weekend
edit: Results found in comments tl;dr 1 winner out of 12 races.
Given the exceptional discussion about breeding around here (mostly due to the resident expert hodsct59
), I happened upon an idea and wanted to share it with y'all.
Using the Bloodhorse Stallion Register found here
, and using the Leading Sires
list, I came up with the follow sires with a greater than 50% win rate for their prodigy:
|Stallion ||Runners ||Winners ||Win % |
|Ministers Wild Cat ||68 ||39 ||57.4% |
|Twirling Candy ||82 ||47 ||57.3% |
|Stay Thirsty ||65 ||35 ||53.8% |
|Birdstone ||76 ||39 ||51.3% |
|Maclean's Music ||50 ||25 ||50.0% |
Here are the links to each horse above in the register: Ministers Wild Cat Twirling Candy Stay Thirsty Birdstone Maclean's Music
On each profile page, you'll see Recent Results and Upcoming Entries.
Checking the Recent Results on a few of these, the winners tend to be the favorites, but I can't imagine all of them being the favorites.
Here are some upcoming races for each (link goes to Equibase profile): Ministers Wild Cat
: Wildcat Kaos
June 16 OR
June 18 at Santa Anita (
R7 MSW) 5th Twirling Candy
: Todos Santos
June 16 at Santa Anita (R10 MC) 4th Annie's Candy
June 17 at Northlands Park (R7 HCP) 10th -Last Addictive
June 17 at Belmont (R5 ALW) races cancelled Gianna's Dream
June 18 at Canterbury Park (R7 STK) 4th Candy Promises
June 18 at Santa Anita (R3 AOC) 4th Stay Thirsty
: Oh So Thirsty
June 17 at Indiana Grand (R6 ALW) 2nd Thirsty for Gold
June 18 at Monmouth Park (1st time starter 2yo R5 MSW) 4th Thirsty Bandit
June 18 at Laurel Park (R4 MC) 6th Stay Glad
June 18 at Santa Anita (R7 MSW) 6th Maclean's Music
: Wicked Lick
June 18 at Churchhill Downs (R9 ALW) didn't race? Swing and Sway
June 19 at Finger Lakes (R8 STK) 1st!!! Birdstone
doesn't have any entries
Granted, this doesn't take into odds, scratches, the field, surface, distance, or any other handicapping angles. This is purely the 50% Leading Sire Win Rate. There are other angles to review as well:
Leading Sires Leading Broodmare Sires Leading First-Crop Sires Leading Second-Crop Sires Leading Third-Crop Sires Leading Sires of Two-Year-Olds
I'll keep an eye on the results and update this thread later.
Feel free to post suggestions or improvements.
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2017.06.14 20:20 hodsct59 Pedigree: Where To Find And How To Look Up Pedigrees And The Most Effective Way To Use Them!!
I have for many years believed that pedigree decides the outcome of every race. Sure there are races that you really do not need pedigree to give you an idea of who is the best horse. But it is an awesome tool to use to identify horses that are flying under the radar. Not knowing the best way to use pedigree will often steer you off course and will give you the feeling that it is a waste of your time. However if you are more comfortable of using other peoples opinion for your betting decisions, then there is nothing really wrong with that other than you will struggle to show a profit on a consistent basis.
Myself, I like to make my own decision using breeding and while I still have bad days handicapping, I now have almost as many good days where I show big profits that more than make up for my losing days. I can not honestly say that has always been the case. Before I started using breeding as my main focus, I used to have an occasional huge profit day but by the time the next one came along, I had given back most or all of my winnings. That all changed about 7-8 years ago when I started digging deeper into bloodlines. I have gradually improved each and every year as I learn more about breeding, including the most effective way to use it.
Below, I will walk you through the best way to look up a five generation pedigree on all horses and the steps I use to find live longshots several times a month. I try to identify contenders before I waste a lot of time on pedigree. By this, I look for horses that showed any ability in the last race or two regardless of if they were beaten by 2 lengths or 25 lengths. Horses that show no ability and/or no run will almost always need more condition to be a factor in any race. Trainers who has shown a knack for knowing what each of their horses needs are(surfaces, distance, etc) usually moves way up my list.
There are two common ways to get five generations pedigree on probably 95 % of the horses that ever live. And if you learn to use it right, it will give you an edge that most experts have no knowledge of and like most handicappers, uses one or two horses in a pedigree to come to an usually uniformed decision. I simply use their pedigree to weed out who may like distance, turf, off tracks and even what class they may reach or perform in if trained correctly. I use the internet and my browser to find pretty much the history of horse racing.
First Method: Simply type in a horse's name in your browser follow by the word horse, thoroughbred, or both. Example: if I want Tapit five generation pedigree, I would type--- tapit horse---in my browser and press enter. Nothing more and nothing less. The next page that pops up will be all the results having to do with the horse Tapit. The first result that pops up in his case is Tapit Horse Pedigree- Pedigree Query. I click on that headliner and the next page that pops up is Tapit's 5 generation pedigree. There are 62 horses in a 5 generation pedigree but I normally use six or seven to make a informed decision time after time. I will speculate on this in a post today.
Second Method: This one requires a few more steps but helps more with current horses in training. Simply type in www.equibase.com
. when you are on this site, there are two places you can find the horse's pedigree without paying for it. On equibase main page, they will have a list of headers across the top portion of the page. You can use results header or entries header to find any horse that is active 5 generation pedigree. The results tab is for all thoroughbred horse racing results at all tracks ran in the last month. Hover over the results tab and it will drop down a category of sub tabs. Find the tab "summary results" and click on it. The next page will display "Summary Results" and list all US tracks and Woodbine dates that had racing for the past 30 days for free. Scroll down and find the track and the date you are looking for. Click on the date in that track's column. The next page will display every race ran on that day at the track you clicked on. If you want to see the result of any race on that day, you need to find the tab that says "view all races" and click on it. The next page will give you the result of every race ran on that day, exactly like the results you see at most race track, with payoffs. It will include all horses that ran in that race as also ran. Say you want to find out more about a horse breeding that ran 5th in the fourth race that day. You would simply scroll down to the 4th race, scan at the also ran and find the horse's name you are looking for and click on his name(Note: he does not have to run in the money to get this info). The next page that will pop up is the horse's name, trainer, owner, and jockey that rode him on that day. Next will be the individual race on that horse's lifetime races, including his most recent(available about 2-3 hours after he completes a race). But if you simply want to find his pedigree, simply scroll past all this and near the bottom center of page, you will see a "Free Five X Generation Pedigree" button. Click on that tab and it will pull up a five generation pedigree on the horse in question.
You can also do the same with entries tab but it is for upcoming races only and is posted from 3 days to a week(at smaller tracks) before the races are actually ran. Simply follow the same procedure as noted above. Hint: you must use the view all races tab to get all races and clicking on individual race tabs will usually not work properly.
Now that you have the best places to get breeding information, you are probably wondering what is the most effective way to use this information. While there are several ways to use this info, I will walk you through what I do and look for. I normally spend less than five minutes on any pedigree unless something about the horse or today's racing condition stands out to me. But until you become more familiar with each horse likes and/or dislikes, you will probably need to take a little more time to get it right.
First, I will mention the sire. I usually use the sire and his racing ability only. When I am looking at a sire, I want to know as much about his race record as I can remember. If he won at one distance multiple times or if he won at the distance only once. Any horse can get a dream trip or have a track bias aid them once, so multiple wins at the same distances usually signals that he is better than average. This is and has always been a better gauge of talent than a horse than ran fast only once. After he has a few crops, I will then tend to use what his foals are doing more so than his race record. Is his foals winning more often at sprints, distances, and/or fast or off tracks. Are they precious and win early or does it take them a few races to figure out what racing is all about. A GOOD SIRE WILL PASS ON CLASS AND RACING ABILITY TO HIS FOALS BUT HE WILL NOT BREED ANY FOALS THAT CAN GO FURTHER THAN HE DID WITHOUT SOME HELP FROM THE DAM AND HER FAMILY.
DAM & BROODMARE SIRE: This is the most important link in all pedigrees. The dam and her sire will usually identify just how far a foal wants to go and the surface they will enjoy the most. The broodmare sire will help determine if the horse will have an opportunity to increase the sire's best distance or if in fact it will harm the sire's best distance. This is why you will see most sires that enjoyed a mid distance race most during his racing career suddenly produce a horse that prefers to go much further than him. The same concept applies when a mid distance runner is bred to a sprinting broodmare sire. This foal will usually struggled to run even middle distance successfully but will be considered among the best sprinting, if anything.
The 2nd, 3rd, and 4th dams and their sires will often give you clues if the dam has received any distance help or more likely to produce sprint type runners. This is usually only important in the top races run each year and is less effective in average races. After all, the more heart a horse displays will likely lead to more and higher quality of wins. And when a G1 race is ran, it is often the only way to tell a real contender from a pretender, especially if they are similar elsewhere.
I rarely,if ever, use the rest of their pedigrees and will only if the same horses crosses within a pedigree. This will give most foals double or triple the opportunity to pick up the genes that these top horses displayed throughout their racing and breeding career. It is simple logic, the more opportunities a horse has to pick up top genes of his parents or grandparents, the more likely he will pick up some or all. Most of you believe the more you spread your money, the more likely you are to win. Same concept, but using genes and heart instead!!!
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2017.04.18 16:17 mb44 Who do you like in the 6th today?
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2017.03.15 22:35 kocomma G3 Rebel @ Oaklown Park Sat, March 18th
The field is set for the G2 Rebel at Oaklawn Park, Saturday March 18th PT 6:06pm. 50 Kentucky Derby points to the winner. edit: G2
Rebel edit2: how'd I spell Oaklawn wrong? Sorry Oaklawn. Field PP Current Top 10 Derby Horses
No. 9 on the list, Untrapped, is in the field, as is No. 16 Lookin At Lee, No. 18 Uncontested, No. 24 Royal Mo, No. 26 Petrov, No. 34 American Anthem, No. 42 Silver Dust
Some familiar faces from the G3 Southwest Stakes are back for this race: (2) Uncontested: finished 6th after leading half the race (4) Petrov: 2nd after briefly gaining the lead in the stretch (8) Silver Dust: closed strong to finish 4th but still 12 lengths behind (11) Lookin At Lee: finished 3rd, closing from 7th to 3rd but 11 lengths behind
Notable additions to the race: (5) Untrapped Top 10 Derby Horse, G2 Risen Star - 2nd, G3 Lecomte - 2nd (10) Royal Mo Winner G3 Robert B Lewis (6) Malagacy Pletcher Trained, 2 for 2. Won 1st race by 15 lengths, 2nd by 7 lengths. 1st time at a route. Castellano has the mount (7) American Anthem 2nd to Gormley in G3 Sham by a head.
The other contenders: (1) Silver Bullion Based out of Oaklawn Park. 2nd last out in 75K AOC. Trained by D. Wayne Lukas (3) Sonneteer Maiden trained by J. Keith Desormeaux. 2nd to Royal Mo back in November. Seems to always be 2nd/3rd/4th. (9) Appalachian Gem Broke maiden last out at Oaklawn Park in 72K MSW.
Bob Baffert has won this race 6 out of the last 7 years. This year's entry American Anthem earned his KD points with a 2nd place to Gormley in the G3 Sham in January @ Santa Anita. Bullet workouts seem to indicate this horse wants to run. His 115 speed figure in the Sham is impressive for only his 2nd start. This will be only his 2nd route, but the fact he lost the lead and rallied back to almost win, indicates he's a fighter. Bred out of Bodemeister - Indy's Windy by A.P. Indy is a great gene pool.
(2) Uncontested is the co-highweight carrying 122lbs and most likely 2nd favorite. In both races at 1 1/16, he set the pace but faded at the end. Given some other speed horses, I don't think we'll see him ITM.
(10) Royal Mo, the other co-highweight (122lbs), will probably go off as the favorite having won the G3 Robert Lewis. At least in his last race, Royal Mo seemed to hold his pace better through 6f and carried well to the end. Contender.
(4) Petrov finsihed 2nd to Uncontested in the Smarty Jones (1m) and 2nd to One Liner in the G3 Southwest. He's proven he can run just off the pace for 1 1/16. Another performance like the last 2, and he's ITM no problem. Contender.
(11) Lookin At Lee finished 12 lengths behind the winners in both the G1 BC Juvenile and G3 Southwest. He closes from far back and will need a fast pace to have a chance of hitting the board. Which he should do in this race.
(6) Malagacy (I expect) will be put in front and told to run. 111 speed rating last out in a 6 1/2f romp by 7 lengths. First time route, but I suspect this horse is primed to run. Can he top proven Graded Stakes runners? We'll find out in the deep stretch, but I think Petrov & Royal Mo will be hard to beat.
(7) American Anthem will be dangerous. His 115 speed rating in the slop at 1m is amazing. He dueled Gormley most of the G3 Sham and was still running at the end. His bullet works since that race says this horse wants to run.
Given his speed, I expect American Anthem and Malagacy to set the pace with Uncontested vying for the lead. American Anthem may sit off the pace with Untrapped because they've run there before and won. If Uncontested challenges for the early lead, then we'll have 3 pace setters fighting for position. Only 1 will get the lead. The others will be wide and off the pace. This is where some horses will tire and fade as it doesn't match their running style. Royal Mo has won the two times he set the pace. I don't think he has the early speed to get the lead especially starting in PP10. So he may either be pushed wide or will have to close late. American Anthem, Petrov, and Untrapped will make that very hard to do.
Looking At Lee and Silver Dust will benefit from the speed up front. Expect them to close late and maybe pass the above (like Uncontested) in the deep stretch.
American Anthem has been firing bullets, but not sure his speed will carry him to victory. I'll have to spread him out in the exotics. Malagacy is my unknown card. Never have done a route, its unknown if he'll stay the distance. Something tells me he could screw up all my bets if not included.
If the pace really is fast, I expect to see Sonneteer, Silver Dust, or Appalachian Gem in the 4th spot as the closers sweep up tired foes. Last but not least, Silver Bullion may go off as the long shot of the field, but his 1:45 1 1/16 last out for 2nd in a 75AOC put him in a log jam with everyone else that run a 1 1/16 in 1:45.. which is 2/3 of the field.
This is silly. I think I've included the entire field in my picks LOL...
With at least 3 speed horses that have won wire-to wire, it doesn't bode well for them to last 1 1/16. Horses like Petrov have shown they can last the distance at a solid pace.
My bet is we'll see 3 of the 5 lowest odd horses in the top 4 and maybe a long shot to boost the super.
How about this: .10 super box of 4/10/5/7
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2017.02.20 22:18 ItsSweded Best way to create spreadsheet/dataset of horse track
I'm trying to compile data of a local horse track (look at equibase/daily racing forum) as they only have the before program and results, no compiled lists of lifetime or monthly stats or a registry of one particular jockey/horse/stable over a period of time like you might buy from Daily Racing Forum.
Basically I want to compile all the available data over the last 3 months of horses, jockeys, and stables from pdfs and in the end have a sort of registry I can look at to see how a particular jockey , horse, etc has performed over the last x months and under what conditions.
Is there an easier way to do this other than making multiple spreadsheets and manually doing the addition for each entry?
Edit: If this isn't the best sub to ask I'd appreciate if someone could point me in the right direction
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2014.06.26 19:38 angrybobs Tips for a first time handicapper.
Last weekend I did some very very basic handicapping for Churchill downs and did fairly well hitting 3 trifectas out of 6 races bet and multiple exactas. This week I decided to try and take a more detailed approach and quickly realized you can get information overload very fast. I think my spreadsheet for one race ended up with about 40 columns and around 30 rows with 12 graphs that I wanted to analyze.
The race I picked for this weekend is race 4 at Churchill Downs on Saturday June 28. My final results show me that Wizardly will come in 1st, Upkeep in 2nd, For Goodness Sakes or Rankhasprivileges in 3rd. I also have Moon Traveler and Barat as potential 4th-6th horses.
I have no idea what the odds will be yet but I like to pick my results before all the picks and odds come out just to see how close I am. I look a little bit at the jockey and trainers but I mostly go by performance from the last two races looking at times in the first 4 furlongs and then average time per furlong after the first 4 furlongs. I also take into account what happened with them during the last races such as starting position, how they started, how they did in the turn, and what they did in the stretch.
Does anyone else want to give this race a shot and maybe give me some feedback and provide their thoughts?
Link to the entries below. http://www.churchilldowns.com/racing-handicapping/equibase/entries?eqb=ZXFiUmFjZUVudHJpZXNEaXNwbGF5LmNmbT9UUks9Q0QmQ1k9VVNBJkRBVEU9MDYvMjgvMjAxNCZTVFlMRT1DRA==&iframe=1
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