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way too early prediction for 2024 presidential polls, let me know what u guys think
Hi guys, Democrat leaning independent from Ohio here trying to make some way too early predictions for 2024. *Ohio will not be competitive (<5%) presidentially.
I made 2 maps on 270towin First one Trump vs Biden Second one DeSantis vs Biden
Methodology for swing states: Added NC as a swing state as: 2020 margin ~74k (Trump) 2022 GOP senate margin with R Trump backed candidate ~114k, while Dems total got outspent 2:1 (October 2022 politico) Added Virginia as swing state as it was flipped +12 by Glenn Youngkin, a very similar candidate to non-Trump prospective GOP nominees like Ron Desantis.
Swing states
Arizona Cari Lake ( Trump backed) lost by <1% in an non presidential year election even though Mark Kelly won by ~5%, largest margin for Dem senator since DeConcini (1988). Lean R for both Trump vs Biden Lean R for DeSantis vs Biden
Wisconsin Dem governor won by 3%>, GOP senator won by 2%>, epitome of swing state I gave it blank since GOP is having convention, and primary debates there, but Dems had convention in Philly 2016, and in Charlotte in 2012 and lost both. So historical proof of those things actually working in swing states isn’t great. Third party candidate will be key here, stealing mostly from D but also lil bit from R. Trump vs Biden Lean blue for DeSantis vs Biden… Abortion
North Carolina Trump won by 75 k, Ted Budd ( Trump backed) won by 114k Recent party flipping and abortion bans seem to have raised Dem anger, Democratic Party got outspent in state 2:1 43.8 mil to 22 mil in TV ads, Beasley was herself up 9 mil against Ted Budd total 43.8 vs 31. Previously in 2020 Dems had spent 136M total vs 109M total from Republicans and lost that seat as well to TrumpThillis by <2%. Money didn’t help there since Cunningham was marred by extramarital affairs allegations. Lean R for Trump vs Biden since Democrats haven’t shown they can do it since ObamaHagan in 08. Lean D for DeSantis vs Biden due to abortion restrictions,will be interesting to see if part flip anger results in D surge and boost Dems to the W.
Georgia Walker lost close 3%> Kemp won by 8. Third party will be key, mostly taking from Trump. Lean D Trump vs Biden, proven now in 4/5 state wide races 1 presidential 3 senate 1 governor Solid R DeSantis vs Biden, no history of Dems competing (<5%) to non Trump Georgia GOP before 2018 since Clinton 92 and Miller 2000. *I personally find Zelle Miller 2000 crazy, cause top of ticket Al Gore(D) lost to Bush 2 by 12 while Miller(D) beat Mack Mattingly(R) in same election by 20! This was due to Georgia having 12 consecutive years of D governors at that time, Georgia folks must have really hated Al Gore.
Pennsylvania Shapiro won by 17 albeit against lunatic Mastriano who wasn’t even endorsed by many other state GOP leaders Fetterman won by 5 against Oz (who may or may not have been from state, although H Clinton was elected to senate from NY in 2000 after being in Washington DC from prev 8 and Little Rock, Arkansas for prev 17 before that and Chicago, Illinois for her first 27…. but anyways Oz got boned by Mastriano+” You, your doctor and your local politician comments”) Progressive Dems grassroots organizations will keep Biden ahead, while pro - fracking/usual GOP groups will be supporting GOP candidates to keep them closeish. Lean D Trump vs Biden Lean D Desantis vs Biden
Way too early * Virginia Flipped by Glen Youngkin by 12 pts in 2021. Youngkin (crt, life starts at conception, anti-climate change) (signed bill getting rid of state portion of Virginia grocery tax,funded HBCUs (by removing it from DACA recipients), removed college req for some state jobs, endorsed by only black governor in Virginia history, squeezed more margins out of Trump 2020 Appalachia counties(crt/inflation Dem flips?) This is the way too early part, if Youngkin gets in the race, largely cause he can’t run in 2025 for governor, and finishes 3rd to Desantis and Trump which I think he would… it might make Virginia more interesting iffff combined with Youngkin running, GOP are able to capture both the state senate and state house in the local elections of the state.
By the way MASSIVE LOCAL ELECTIONS in Virginia this year, all 40 of the state senate and all 100 of the state house of delegates are up. I don’t see any Dems/ Dem media talking about it. Youngkin at the root of it is a ‘life start at conception,’ Republican that will definitely sign a heartbeat bill or worse. If pro-choice folks want to protect any sort of reproductive rights in the entire south, the GOP cannot be allowed to get at least 1 of the houses.